psuhoffman

What part of this winter has been nina like? I am equally frustrated with getting snow into the coastal plain because I want to enjoy this and its difficult when so many around you are rightfully in a piss mood. But we had a month straight with a deep -NAO and an eastern trough and it did no good. And everyone said lets get the TPV into N America and try waves. So now we have that pattern...and the waves are all directed right at us...but it might be too warm along the coastal plain and so....what...what now? You want that TPV over top of us instead of in the midwest....then its just cold/dry. We want the boundary running trough our area. What pattern are we looking for now? What haven't we tried yet? Here is the thing that frustrates me and troubles me...the "pattern" DC wants for snow is the same as mine. From 15 days away the h5 look we want is identical. Historically we get snow from the same storms mostly. Yes I get more...but historically if I get a 12" snowstorm DC doesnt get 0. But that has happened several times in the last few years! Historically If I get 12" DC should be getting 4-8". If I get 8" DC should be getting 2-4". But we used to share most of the same snowstorms. Now...I keep getting snow while DC is just rain. That is not normal...not to the extent its happening now. Historically a winter that produced 35-40" up here would be 15-20" in and around DC. The last few times I got 35-40" DC was in the single digits! So I am not even sure what kind of unicorn pattern we are looking for anymore because we have had a month straight of about the best pattern I could come up with if you gave me the crayons and it has done little good for DC.

yes now its not really that much of a cutter as just a late transfer and I expect it to continue to trend. I keep pointing this out, and ERS did also, that guidance all season has continually wanted to phase systems to our west and over amplify them. In reality the NS and SS have remained unphased with the SS waves typically riding the boundary along the eastern edge of the trough and transferring to the coastal baroclinic zone instead. DC has failed for other reasons but cutters has not been one of them.

That’s trending south too

It’s about origin. The storm originated as a SS wave along the gulf but it tracks up west of the Apps initially then jumps to a secondary. That’s hybrid. Pure miller b us all NS. Typically a west to east NS wave that jumps to the coast.

Dunno if this is why but if you just look at the 0 isotherm it’s a bit misleading because there is a huge area of right near 0 air at h85 and h7 south of the 0 isotherm on the map. eta: that screams a setup where heavy banding cools the column to snow and lighter precip is sleet

It’s a gulf low hybrid though. It’s all about the latitude of the transfer. If it happens far enough south those are fine here. It’s not a west to east NS miller b.

How long before I’m worried about suppression?

Not making any forecasts for something that far out yet...but the seasonal pattern as well as the progression argues that is more a risk then the phased bomb up to our west solutions we were seeing the last few days. That never made sense imo.

the hell you say! ICE...lots and lots and lots of ICE and dump trucks...we can solve this. Where is that American can do spirit!

But there was no HECS storm in 2015 or 2014 and those were considered good winters. You are right...there wouldn't have been a HECS storm this year so far in DC regardless of the temp issues but let me make a point by playing an "alternate universe" where its 2C colder from 700mb on down in DC. I think this is a fair temp to assume may have changed in the last 20 years due to a combo of AGW, UHI, and simply the current on fire base states of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans! I am going through every storm where if you subtract 2C from the column h7 to the surface and exactly what that would have meant to the result in DC proper (not necessarily National airport in that lava pit they take measurements at). So storms where that would have got the surface down to a supportive temp for snow (say 33-34) and gotten the column above that below freezing. I am going to be conservative but fair. Dec 14th DC recorded 1.06 from a wave. Not all of that would have been frozen...it was a cold boundary sinking south. I got about 3" up here but the best moisture actually was suppressed SOUTH of me. Problem was even with a perfect wave track the boundary layer was scorched in the coastal plain. It was upper 30's rain. You subtract 2C from that and it ended as 2-4" of snow. Dec 16th DC recorded 1.11 QPF. Not all of that would have been snow if you subtract 2C... eventually the warm mid level would have won out...but at least 5-7" would have fallen first. A lot of that QPF happened in the initial WAA wave when the warm layer was very shallow and there was also a warm layer at the surface where it was like 33-34. That combo killed what should have been a 5-7" changing to ice event imo. January 1, .81 QPF. Again not all would have been snow, the primary tracked too far inland but if you subtract 2C that was a 1-3" snow/sleet to ice event. January 3: perfect track rainstorm. .28 QPF. Should have been 2-3" 1/25, .2 QPF but surface was around 33 and also a barely above 0 warm layer. lets say 1-2" 1/31 to 2/2 .57 QPF. The warm layer never got above 2c. So make that all snow. 5-6" 2/7, .49 and the problem was all boundary layer...subtract 2C and that was a 4-5" snow Last night the warm layer was never more then 1C and the boundary wasn't THAT WARM...that is a 3-5" snow under my alternate universe. So in this alternate universe where its 2C colder...DC is at 23-35" right now with a month of snow climo left and a pretty good pattern ahead. Looking at a top 10% snowfall winter maybe! I think my point WRT what the biggest issue is holds some validity.

Naw, last minute trends were actually south a bit with the best lift. Heavy bands kept training just south of me all night and I was stuck in the subsidence. Plus...like I pointed out a few days ago this was not the kind of event where my orographics would help. The wind flow was all wrong to get any upslope assistance. This was totally dependent on where the moisture feed set up. What is annoying is that I am only 50 miles north of DC...and this was suppressed SOUTH of me...and it still did DC no good. Think about that for a second!

It looked like a little over half an inch accumulated on my driveway from the last band that came down after I measured and cleared at 7AM so 3.5" is an accurate final total.

Fringed up here. Only had 2.8” when I cleared the driveway around 7. Probably got up over 3 with that last band after that. Never got into good rates. Just very very light snow all night. But very happy some south of me cashed in!

I wouldn’t assume later next week is a cutter either.

I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month! This looks like a match to every big DC snow period. And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate.

At 90 6z euro has the departing TPV much stronger and slower to leave. System in the lower plains is weaker. Extrapolating another shift east. Guidance is slowly succumbing to the seasonal trend not to phase and cut storms west.

yup pattern looks awful

Baltimore is a dump. Like they deserve snow Don't be a jerk

Keep seeing reports just south of me of "dumping" but been mostly just light here with maybe borderline moderate at times.

I should operate a b&b for snow weenies

sure...looking at the current guidance its gonna be rocking

Will the barometric pressure in Pittsburgh predict the glacier flow?

You want to take the overflow for my glacier tours business next week?

It’s close NW of 95. You can see the column trying to cool but the storm isn’t quite amplified to pull it off like the NAM did.

yea 30/23 and pouring misty groupely snow here.