psuhoffman

I don’t control anything so it doesn’t matter...but the only way I’m rooting to lose my snow is if the storm we get after replaces it with MORE snow. If I lose a 8” snowpack to get a 6” storm that’s a bad deal lol. Funny is the GEFS likes Tuesday more but hated Thursday and EPS is opposite. Watch them compromise and miss us with both lol.

Yea but I don’t want to lose my snowpack lol.

Thursday, with the spacing after Tuesday, ends up the setup we thought we had for Tuesday. But Tuesday would have been even better with a fresher Arctic airmass and a TPV pressing over the top. That’s why I was so optimistic. But the waves Saturday to Tuesday all strung out into one continuous wave train that doesn’t allow the boundary to press east. Thursday could work but it’s a shame, Tuesday would have been an even better setup had the Sunday/Monday wave not popped up.

I resisted saying this but I guess what I’m hinting at is given the current N Hem pac and atl warm SST base states (people can blame it on whatever makes you sleep better at night but the current warm SSTs aren’t up for debate) I’m wondering if a pattern that would have produced a 20” snow year in DC won’t struggle like this one. I don’t think we are on opposite sides of this discussion but we’re focused on different things. Your points why the potential of the NAO was muted is valid. What what I’m saying is historically it should still have yielded better results than it did. Not 2010 or 2003 but not everything has to be blockbuster level. Remember the chart that showed even in a Nina -NAO months still averaged above normal snowfall. So your focused on why the Nina prevented a big 2010 type response but I’m focused more on why we didn’t even get a more typical historical Nina -NAO result!

Except imo given the base state the pac was as friendly as we could have possibly hoped. It wasn’t good. Mediocre at best. But it wasn’t the central pac 3-5 std dv flat ridge we had all last winter (in a nino no less). We had some variance, some pna at times, some epo and some Aleutian low periods and very few shut the lights looks. The whole time we had a perfect AO/NAO. Dunno. But the reason I resist the simple view of “the Nina” is if you pull out the Nina’s with a +AO and a flat pac ridge (this was NOT that type) the others aren’t as hostile a snow climo. Only 1996 was a true blockbuster but most of the others in that type ended up near normal or even a little above.

After the current (very badly timed) relax we have a -NAO with 50/50 signature again late February. That time of year going into March that puts us in the game regardless of the pac.

It's just trying to cover all its bases

maybe... but the cold is getting stale by then so it would have a lot more work to do.

it was offset by another trend west of the TPV

probably wont mean anything but early on at 48 hours the euro has the boundary further east and pressing more...less ridging in front. The Saturday night wave was stronger and helped to suppress the flow behind it a little bit.

we had a +PNA for long stretches in December and early January and that did no good either.

For questions about Thursday...yes the more amped system Tuesday could help but frankly I don't see an amped system. Its just waves riding the boundary like I thought it would be. The problem is the boundary is 150 miles NW of where I thought it would be and discussed above why that happened. That boundary will shift east for a bit behind the Tuesday wave...but the problem Thursday is the cold is getting pretty stale by then and the TPV has moved out. It could work if the wave is weak and runs the boundary without pressing it back north. I am not ruling that out. But the setup thurday has a lot less working for it then the setup we saw for Tuesday before the TPV decided to pull back and elongate northeast v East. We had a TPV in the way, arctic air on top, high in the way...there was a lot to like. Thursday we need the wave to thread the needle. We might have a nice high in the way but it wont have as much locking it in as we thought Tuesday would. If you want to see what went wrong Tuesday go back and look at the TPV on Tuesday and what has happened to that over the last few days of runs.

There is always some variance in every season. Yes there were some brief interludes where a SE ridge of WAR showed. And of course "suppression" is less of a problem during those times. But from the means you can see that was not the dominant pattern. I am not disputing that the look coming up it becomes a bigger problem and lasts longer then previous very brief 1-2 day periods of SE ridge we had before this...and the main reason is the AO/NAO have finally broken down. There is some sign they may return but unfortunately for us our biggest problem now is that we lost the one thing that was possibly going to make this period coming up "epic". The key was to get enough blocking to suppress the boundary. But as the blocking has relaxed on guidance the boundary has shifted north. Its a pretty clear correlation. But you bring up the shred factory...that was a BIGGER problem frankly then the SE ridge which was only around for a few brief windows. The annoying thing this year has been due to a lack of cold...the amount of suppression it took to keep storms under us also shredded them. There wasn't a good baroclinic boundary to work with for most of the winter...and we finally have one now and the NAO decides its time to take a vacation.

The SST warmth is definitely a factor and I’ve said that a few times but that’s not the same as the SE ridge or WAR. Both have been muted this year. Doesn’t mean some warmth didn’t penetrate the east coast due to warm SSTs but the dominant pattern was not a SE ridge.

Tpv further south and out ahead more, initial wave less amped so the cold can press ahead. The looks I liked were when there was no wave Sunday/Monday. Now it’s looking like Monday is the wave. But the cold is still west. One issue the TPV started to take on more of a SW to NE elongation v am east to west from days ago. That allowed more ridging and less confluence in the east.

Too easy to simply attribute that to Nina though. 1. We haven’t had any SE ridge all winter...2. The Mjo is not in a typical Nina phase right now so ironically we’re getting a Nina response without Nina tropical pac forcing.

@pazzo83 6 of the last 12 years DCs biggest snowfall came in March!

The odds gradually decrease everyday but there is no sudden huge change that hits late February. The huge change happens in mid March where spring climo takes over and snow does become much more rare. From Feb 15-March 15 it’s a very gradual slope.

Significant snow ANY date is rare

We just had a snowstorm on March 21 3 years ago! We had a big snows in March 2015, 2014 and 2009 also. It’s always a struggle to get snow in the cities but it doesn’t suddenly become impossible on a set date. After about Feb 15 it does start to get harder but very gradually a little each day until late March when it does hit a wall.

Not just but the snow is a significant factor. But I have an amazing view, big property, it’s nice up here in the summer. It’s a great property to raise kids. But the snow was a part of it. I barely can tolerate the typical level of snow here...I couldn’t be happy living in DC or Baltimore. Up here I know I’m guaranteed at least some decent snow every year. But frankly I can’t wait to move somewhere that gets like 150” a year and has snow on the ground from Thanksgiving to Easter.

A 55 degree day in mid February is more normal here then a snowstorm. And again why are you fixated on the idea of “normal”. Normal in weather around here is just a bunch of abnormal averaged together.

lol I know what your doing but no reason to pile on. That’s not actually that bad. The PV is displaced and it’s also a temporary look as the pattern recycles. The next wave break in the Atlantic pumps the NAO ridge again a couple days after that.

What exactly are my options here? I have no control over this. So I can accept it and get over it and laugh about it or I can let it ruin my night and get depressed for no good reason. Let me suggest that if you NEED snow to be happy you really really really should move. And I am not judging you...I drive an hour each way to work so I can get more snow. And frankly I am still not happy a lot of the time up here and I get twice as much snow as Baltimore (frankly more like 3x more lately). So I am not saying its wrong to need snow to be happy...but I am saying you are just asking for hurt if you need snow to be happy and live in a place with a median snowfall of like 15" that goes multiple years without a significant snowstorm very frequently! Why do you want to be miserable so much of the time? Either accept it or move somewhere that gets enough snow to be happy because the climo isn't going to change...at least not for the better.

yea I know this will come off as greedy to most everyone in here but I was kinda excited for the idea of getting some snow but a lot of ice on top of my snowpack and building up a glacier that might last a while. That is pretty rare even up here. But its looking more likely I have bare ground come Monday.