psuhoffman

It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave. The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW.

Lot of time left but tonight’s trend is bad.

Gfs went that way too. Not good. Runs a wave out ahead Monday in front of the high. This prevents the high and the cold from coming across the top in front of the main wave. It turns into a cold chasing moisture which I like a LOT less then when we had a 1035 high over the top in front of the storm. Kinda didn’t like when NAm/RGEM showed hints at 18z but now everything’s going towards that progression. That is not the way we want it to to trend.

It’s ice. Icon took a baby step towards the NAM though. RGEM continued in that camp also at 0z. Not even sure there would be a Tuesday storm on the rgem behind the rain Monday. It’s squashing that wave behind the rainstorm.

Everything is random. Weather is chaos. If it doesn’t snow we will be ok. We always are.

So far it’s only showing on the rgen and NAM at range. Hopefully nothing else moves towards that progression at 0z.

The weakening of the wave Saturday is setting off a chain reaction I don’t think I like. The weaker wave Saturday opens the door for a wave that was previously squashed between Saturday/Tuesday to amplify. Problem is that wave comes after the current cold press has been scoured by the southerly flow of the Saturday wave and before cold can get in from the eventual TPV sliding across on top of us Monday. Additionally the wave Sunday/Monday will prevent the cold from pressing in ahead of the wave Tuesday meaning we would need the cold to come in just in time. The only positive is with even less space the wave Tuesday is less likely to amp up but I already expected that trend to continue. This progression sucks because it could wipe out all the snow Monday for the northern half of the forum which besides simply sucking itself would also hinder the surface temps for the next 2 waves.

I honestly haven’t been following it close enough. From a quick glance the best forcing seems to pass through in the next 6 hours so if it’s gonna not bust the next few hours is critical.

I compared the whole next 10 days from 0z to 12z subtracting the snow from last night.

It looks like it went down because we lost the snow from overnight. But if you adjust for that it actually went up like 1-2” NW of 95

Personally I don’t think enso has been driving our patterns as much as it used to since 2016. I think the lack of gradient muted the ninos and the warmth all around it muted the Ninas some. There have been a lot of atypical patterns per enso the last 2 Nina/nino cycles

Last year was a nino!

@CAPE yes but the other day when I checked the top pattern analogs (and those include the pac) were February 2007, March 56, February 1994 and I saw Feb 79 in there too! All of them were at least significantly cold. Some snowed a lot, some a little, but they weren’t periods where cold was in short supply. Seems harder to get the same temp response lately.

The weak wave Monday is hurting our chances Tuesday Imo. Prevents the high from building in.

Manchester MD. About 3 miles south of the PA line due north of DC at about 1000 feet.

What part of this winter has been nina like? I am equally frustrated with getting snow into the coastal plain because I want to enjoy this and its difficult when so many around you are rightfully in a piss mood. But we had a month straight with a deep -NAO and an eastern trough and it did no good. And everyone said lets get the TPV into N America and try waves. So now we have that pattern...and the waves are all directed right at us...but it might be too warm along the coastal plain and so....what...what now? You want that TPV over top of us instead of in the midwest....then its just cold/dry. We want the boundary running trough our area. What pattern are we looking for now? What haven't we tried yet? Here is the thing that frustrates me and troubles me...the "pattern" DC wants for snow is the same as mine. From 15 days away the h5 look we want is identical. Historically we get snow from the same storms mostly. Yes I get more...but historically if I get a 12" snowstorm DC doesnt get 0. But that has happened several times in the last few years! Historically If I get 12" DC should be getting 4-8". If I get 8" DC should be getting 2-4". But we used to share most of the same snowstorms. Now...I keep getting snow while DC is just rain. That is not normal...not to the extent its happening now. Historically a winter that produced 35-40" up here would be 15-20" in and around DC. The last few times I got 35-40" DC was in the single digits! So I am not even sure what kind of unicorn pattern we are looking for anymore because we have had a month straight of about the best pattern I could come up with if you gave me the crayons and it has done little good for DC.

yes now its not really that much of a cutter as just a late transfer and I expect it to continue to trend. I keep pointing this out, and ERS did also, that guidance all season has continually wanted to phase systems to our west and over amplify them. In reality the NS and SS have remained unphased with the SS waves typically riding the boundary along the eastern edge of the trough and transferring to the coastal baroclinic zone instead. DC has failed for other reasons but cutters has not been one of them.

That’s trending south too

It’s about origin. The storm originated as a SS wave along the gulf but it tracks up west of the Apps initially then jumps to a secondary. That’s hybrid. Pure miller b us all NS. Typically a west to east NS wave that jumps to the coast.

Dunno if this is why but if you just look at the 0 isotherm it’s a bit misleading because there is a huge area of right near 0 air at h85 and h7 south of the 0 isotherm on the map. eta: that screams a setup where heavy banding cools the column to snow and lighter precip is sleet

It’s a gulf low hybrid though. It’s all about the latitude of the transfer. If it happens far enough south those are fine here. It’s not a west to east NS miller b.

How long before I’m worried about suppression?

Not making any forecasts for something that far out yet...but the seasonal pattern as well as the progression argues that is more a risk then the phased bomb up to our west solutions we were seeing the last few days. That never made sense imo.

the hell you say! ICE...lots and lots and lots of ICE and dump trucks...we can solve this. Where is that American can do spirit!

But there was no HECS storm in 2015 or 2014 and those were considered good winters. You are right...there wouldn't have been a HECS storm this year so far in DC regardless of the temp issues but let me make a point by playing an "alternate universe" where its 2C colder from 700mb on down in DC. I think this is a fair temp to assume may have changed in the last 20 years due to a combo of AGW, UHI, and simply the current on fire base states of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans! I am going through every storm where if you subtract 2C from the column h7 to the surface and exactly what that would have meant to the result in DC proper (not necessarily National airport in that lava pit they take measurements at). So storms where that would have got the surface down to a supportive temp for snow (say 33-34) and gotten the column above that below freezing. I am going to be conservative but fair. Dec 14th DC recorded 1.06 from a wave. Not all of that would have been frozen...it was a cold boundary sinking south. I got about 3" up here but the best moisture actually was suppressed SOUTH of me. Problem was even with a perfect wave track the boundary layer was scorched in the coastal plain. It was upper 30's rain. You subtract 2C from that and it ended as 2-4" of snow. Dec 16th DC recorded 1.11 QPF. Not all of that would have been snow if you subtract 2C... eventually the warm mid level would have won out...but at least 5-7" would have fallen first. A lot of that QPF happened in the initial WAA wave when the warm layer was very shallow and there was also a warm layer at the surface where it was like 33-34. That combo killed what should have been a 5-7" changing to ice event imo. January 1, .81 QPF. Again not all would have been snow, the primary tracked too far inland but if you subtract 2C that was a 1-3" snow/sleet to ice event. January 3: perfect track rainstorm. .28 QPF. Should have been 2-3" 1/25, .2 QPF but surface was around 33 and also a barely above 0 warm layer. lets say 1-2" 1/31 to 2/2 .57 QPF. The warm layer never got above 2c. So make that all snow. 5-6" 2/7, .49 and the problem was all boundary layer...subtract 2C and that was a 4-5" snow Last night the warm layer was never more then 1C and the boundary wasn't THAT WARM...that is a 3-5" snow under my alternate universe. So in this alternate universe where its 2C colder...DC is at 23-35" right now with a month of snow climo left and a pretty good pattern ahead. Looking at a top 10% snowfall winter maybe! I think my point WRT what the biggest issue is holds some validity.