psuhoffman

It’s kinda amazing how quickly Tuesday fell apart. It’s flipping to rain all the way to Binghamton and Rutland Vermont now! It’s not even close anymore. The moment guidance flipped to stalling the TPV behind the front instead of coming across over the top I figured it would keep going this way.

Agree but my main point is I think some are using precip type and snow clown maps to judge a run. The h5 and mslp had trended significantly worse since yesterday on the euro. That’s all I care about. I don’t use those clown maps to evaluate a run. Sometimes I will use them to show a trend only if I feel they are indicative of the real trends I see behind them.

I don’t know how it got that but the mslp is UGLY. Tracks to our NW. 0z last night was the last last run of the euro I thought was hopeful. Had the SLP track up the coast. Since then it’s shifted NW. I don’t bother with clown maps unless they agree with what reality should look like imo. A slp track from Elkins to Harrisburg isn’t a snowy look here no matter what those maps show.

I’d be shocked if there isn’t at least one more tease this season. The NAO looks to go back negative and once you get late in the season with shorter wavelengths that becomes enough. Doesn’t mean we get a hit or that it’s necessarily a cold pattern but there will be chances for waves to track under us. Probably more perfect track 36 degree rainstorms and we can pretend it’s because it was just “too late”

A far cry from the 18 and rain 48 hours ago smh I’ll give you this. The NAM at 84 is a decent setup for Thursday. Compare the h5 NAM at 84 with the gfs. You can see how much more suppressive it is. Tpv further west and a flat flow across the top. It’s probably just the NAM being NAM at 84 but it’s been kicking ass and taking names even at range lately so with noting it at least.

Amazing how when we need something to suppress the flow there is never a rogue NS wave to fly across on top

I thought it was an illusion. There was a bit of a lead wave this run that activated precip along the fgen to the northeast of the main low. But that’s a detail that could be a total model figment. The actual track was way worse and the main precip shield was rain. We also got into the warm sector more. All the things that are more reliable about the big picture were worse. The bit of snow was from a fluke detail unlikely to be real. And 0z had the same amount of snow. Maybe an inch less but it was from the actual storm not a fluke lead feature. This is what I care about. Maybe I’m crazy (definitely am) but this is what I see...I don’t care about comparing identical times because there are timing differences with the speed of the wave run to run. What matters is competing the low at its critical pass. This was the low at its more critical point 0z. I superimposed the low and 850 isotherm. that was really close to a significant frozen (snow/sleet) event NW of 95. 12z This isn’t close at all. It’s a big rainstorm and it’s not close. if all you focus on is that little lead wave feature that is highly unlikely to be there next run and look at the clown maps it was ok but I’m looking at the meat of the storm.

I heard their asking for 2 draft picks and a player.

If we want to grasp at real straws this pattern isn’t that bad for going into March. Yea the pac is puke but in March it’s less important actually. This is very close. Get slightly more NAO and suddenly systems will cut west to east under the block. You can see the eastern ridge is mostly flat already there. It’s a typical error from a good look.

Last year was a nino. What’s it matter?

@leesburg 04 just for you. Last 24 hours for Thursday/Friday. Look at that 2” line retreat!!!

Lol. Nothings ever over. Crazy stuff happens. But I hate when people grasp for straws for false comfort. The 12z euro was way worse then 0z. Maybe not on the clown maps but in every way that actually matters.

@Ji sneakily euro trended colder for Tuesday the last 24 hours. One or two more bumps and we sneak into some snow. So you know what that means. Bet everything you have on a north trend next run!!!!

Euro trended colder Tuesday though. Isn’t that far from snow/sleet up here. But the euro has been running too far south all winter so having the model with the biggest south bias lately as the only one that’s even close isn’t likely a winning formula.

@Ji I was finally able to look at the run. It SUCKED. I didn’t look at the precip or pretty colors. None of those details matter at 140 hours out. This matters. This was 0z (which was slightly worse then the runs before even) That was a hopeful progression. That looked like a possible frozen event here. This is 12z thats puke. That looks like a big ass rain event. I didn’t look at the precip. I don’t care what it shows. Qpf and precip type at range is incredibly inaccurate and will adjust to climo for storm progression 90% of the time. That 12z progression was a major step towards rain from 0z regardless of what the pretty clown colors say.

That sounds like what I was afraid it showed. I know some might see some blue over them to start and celebrate but I don’t buy medium range guidance that shows that with a cutting system and the mid level flow is all from the south. Imo that’s unlikely to work out. I want to see signs the wave is suppressed south of us. That would be meaningful.

Thursday was never shown as a pure snowstorm and you know that. Euro shows snow to wintry mix to rain About 36 hours ago the euro was mostly a snow to dryslot event for us and kept the snow pack destroying warm sector to our southeast. There was no rain. It’s trended warmer every run since. The eps also. Had the max snow just NW of 95 a couple days ago but shifted up into central pa last night. I’m not that interested in a minor front end snowfall that’s immediately washed away by 45 degree rain. Those storms are depressing. I want to see signs the storm stays southeast of us. Also...in case you haven’t noticed models at range are always way too optimistic on front end frozen with a west track system. It can work but it’s rare. Models show that a lot at range but it typically is a mirage and the mid level warm layer comes blasting in before the heavy precip arrives. Without a suppressed flow it hard to prevent that. So I was asking doc the euro make a real trend towards a meaningful frozen event or did it continue trending towards a minor front end frozen before the main storm cuts way west and we get rain?

Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer?

Is it close to being close to being close to snow? Or is it only close to close to close to close to maybe kinda being close?

The problem with your "BIG SNOWSTORMS" correlation is that a 20" or even a 12" snowstorm in Baltimore is too rare an occurrence to be able to find those kinds of correlations. There aren't enough of them to see meaningful trends. The one meaningful trend is they mostly happen during a moderate or stronger Nino with a -NAO. That is a meaningful trend. If we lower the bar to 10" which is still a VERY significant snowfall and rare in Baltimore...the randomness is apparent. From 1958 to 1967 Baltimore had 7 such 10" snowstorms. In the next 10 years they had NONE. How is there a trend there? Baltimore had 3 of them in 1987 and only 1 the rest of that decade! They had 2 in 1996 and only 1 the rest of that decade! More recently Baltimore had 3 in one year in 2010 and none in the 3 years before and after that then 2 in 3 years from 2014-2016 and none since. It is totally random. You have to manipulate the data into very specific and rare and arbitrary numbers like "exactly this many inches at this exact location" to find correlations and those correlations are meaningless because snowfall is too fluky locally for such a specific thing to have meaning. And 10" is still honestly too rare an event to get meaningful data. If we do what Wes did for DC and lower the bar to 8" at Baltimore, which is still a very rare event that does not happen most winters, we get enough snowfalls to really see "trends". But there are none. in 10 years from 1958 to 1967 Baltimore had 17 8" snowstorms The next 10 years they had just 1. THen in 1978/79 they had 2 and the next 7 only 1. 1987/88 they had 4 then the next 7 only 1. 1996 they had 3 then the next 3 years none. From 2000 to 2016 there were 9 spread out pretty well...but then NONE since. You have at times focused in on too narrow of a window to find a false signal. If you only looked at the 2000 to 2016 period there seemed to be some regularity to our snowfall but when you pull back you see that was just a random short term coincidence in the longer term randomness. I have run the numbers...there is no predictability of snowfall based on recent history of past years.

I am not wasting my time digging into it but the UK on Pivotal counts freezing rain as snow. So all it has to be is cold by a few degrees over the other guidance to make that map happen. If it does actually show SNOW then its a divergent solution. Either way unless some other guidance jumps on board its not worth close examination. Any one model all by itself is going to be wrong 90% of the time.

I don't know if you are just screwing around with Maestro or not...I sometimes suck at picking up on that stuff... but this is not an accurate representation. 2010 was scorching...truly epically hot summer. 1999 and 1988 were above average but nothing spectacular, 1987 was hotter then 1988 for instance. 1966 and 1977 were about average. and 1922, 33, 44, and 55 were below average summers.

Excellent model. You should totally hold your breath for that!

You have to show the causality. What about years that end in 1 affects the weather?

@CAPE @Bob Chill this would lead to a workable look in March. Our pac issues can more easily be overcome with some blocking in March with shorter wavelengths. That’s why Nina’s (even more hostile ones) in general lose their correlation to warm/lack of snow in March. It’s not a guarantee. They don’t all end up producing but enough did that it’s obviously not wise to assume it’s over. Btw the top pattern analog that’s been showing up over and over lately is early March 1956. That pattern did turn cold and snowy later that month. But people in here would probably still complain because it was a general 3-8” snowfall across our area and 2 feet up near NYC so I know how that would go. We wouldn’t enjoy our 5” because we would be envious of the 20” to our north.