psuhoffman

31/20 awaiting...

My deck is big enough to surround half my pool.

Obviously we've been too soft. Time to tell old man winter who is boss!

Both the GEFS and EPS really like the wave later next week.

Yea but the main problem with December IMO was it was December. The surface low took a perfect track but there was a ton of mid level warmth that blasted well NW. I would take my chances on a similar setup in February.

some combo of a little slower with the departing TPV to our northeast...a little less phasing of the NS/SS to our west, the trough out west to shift east slightly

Big enough to hold up about a dozen people. The wood is very firm and sturdy!

@H2O I was worried about the second wave trending south but not because of the euro. I was totally wrong about wave 1. I thought that was simply going to be a weak POS that didn't do much anywhere. I was totally focused on wave 2 which I was worried would trend south given the cold press we were seeing. It did, a little more then even I thought, enough to screw DC. The first wave amping up helped cause that by pressing the cold boundary even further south behind it. WRT the euro, I post analysis of every run, doesn't mean I agree with it. I posted the trend map because Ji was saying it wasn't that bad...I was trying to point out if you look at the trend over multiple runs it was. I do truly feel bad that this is screwing over the same places that have been getting the short end all winter. I really do. I would love to share the wealth but I have no control over it. It is a lot more fun when we are all posting deck pics!

Do you measure with the waves or between them?

Euro took a very positive step for the storm next week. A couple more shifts like that is all we need.

Euro baby step for the weekend. Wave more amped and juiced but the high is stronger and cold pressing a bit more also.

On the euro but I kinda thought it was off it’s rocker from the beginning. I think the gfs and NAM was always indicating problems with the first wave. But I thought the second would get you as the cold pressed. Ended up pressing too much and squashed it.

Your snow was supposed to come mostly from the 2nd wave which got suppressed too far south.

Hopefully Baltimore breaks it’s jinx with this one

Or a really wild 40th birthday party

I was curious why you think this wave will key on the NS SW track v the SS? All season it seems to be a long range error to phase the streams in the midwest and in reality the SS ends up riding out ahead of the NS along the coastal boundary.

On the one hand the op GFS does drop 11" of snow on DC through the run. I mean getting median snowfall in a 2 week period isnt a bad run. On the other hand it does it by fringe after fringe after fringe with not a single flush hit and drops 40" not far to the NW so that part sucks. But you adjust that just a smidge SE and...

UK looked good at 144 for the wave next week imo.

fixed

That area has a better shot from the main (2nd) wave but might be a little too north.

The main wave is actually trending south so much so it will screw DC even. That was the wave I was counting on to give a flush hit to VA and DC. I didn't think it would trend north but I also didn't think it would end up suppressed completely. I figured with the cold pressing...it still is...that would limit its northward push. Problem is the waves split too much and the initial WAA wave rides north BEFORE the cold starts to press and then the cold press suppresses the main wave. DC found a complicated way to fail. Congrats

Guess I’m too far south lol

depends...if you focus on the NS yes. But the trend this year is for the NS and SS not to phase and for the SS SW to run out ahead and ride the costal baroclinic boundary. If this is the time they all phase up in the ohio valley like guidance has shown at range ALL YEAR..then yes. I am betting the seasonal trend holds.

It is, with big qpf events increasing places that have just enough latitude or elevation to overcome the warming (which is most pronounced in the boundary layer) actually are getting more snowstorms. But places that couldnt afford to add a few degrees and stay snow...womp womp

Starts as snow along 95, stays all snow from IAD NW. Sleet mixes in along 95.