psuhoffman

PARA.... it makes more sense synoptically imo also. Guidance has been phasing the SS with the NS out to our west all season at that range when in reality they have remained separate with the SS running the polar not the arctic boundary. No reason to think this next wave will be any different.

@WinterWxLuvr one possible bright side to our changing climo though...is if this winter is indicative that perhaps even Nina's will trend more active in the future then perhaps our nina climo might not be as hostile to big snowstorms as it once was...provided we get some blocking. Honestly this year I think bad luck has a lot more to do with things then pattern. 2 HECS level storms missed DC and Baltimore by a hair geographically. I don't think there was anything inherently wrong with the pattern that caused that...it was just bad luck. We will have a few more chances for that luck to even out. This wouldn't be the first year though this happened...there are other years where the pattern was better then the results due to bad luck and just missing a few storms. 2018 was one of those in DC. 2013 and 2001 are famous for that. 1969. There are examples in other places where we got the luck and they got screwed like NYC in 1987. There are also examples of years where we outperformed the pattern like 2014 and 2000 imo.

There are 2 types of Nina's though. Ones with a more suppressed pac heat flux and central pac ridge...and ones that have a more poleward heat flux and more blocking, either in the EPO or NAO side. This year is most definitely the second. In those nina types historically cold has no problem coming east and we have had some major cold periods in those types. What typically mutes our snowfall in those nina's is the lack of STJ and so we often have long dry cold periods. This year has been odd in that the STJ has been much more active then normal and we have had no shortage of systems tracking under us, and we have had a more poleward heat flux and great blocking...but yet we continue to suffer from slight temperature issues storm after storm despite those facts.

Sorry I was trying to will this one south. Maybe if I set up my high velocity fan from my classroom and face it south...

It would but it’s hypothetically possible for a reduction in data to effect one more then other depending on how much they rely on initialization.

Shocking it caved to ALL OTHER GUIDANCE

For wave 2 more then a north trend from the boundary wave what I’m curious is if the precip associated with the upper level dynamics which actually track right over is juiced up some. Wouldn’t take much because ratios would be very high under that. Juice that up to like .25 qpf and everyone gets a nice little 3-4” at the end.

Not good for dt Richmond 10 Short pump gets shorted

you need to take long range guidance holistically. Yes this one GEFS run was (oddly) further north with the waves next week and so cut back the snow mean in DC a bit. But the last several runs of the GEFS were all further south then the op and were snowy next week. The op this run was south. The GGEM is south. The UK is so south is squashes the wave. The last run the euro trended south. The seasonal trend from that range is south. If you take the full scope and preponderance of evidence its good. If you just laser in on the one thing that is not good you will just agitate yourself for no reason. The GEFS could, and probably will, shift back south next run.

What are you doing? It's bizzarro world in here tonight

yea because it crushes it with the cold press... totally different problem then what everyone was worried about a few hours ago.

yea well he is a little uneven but over in the other thread he picked up on losetoa6 being upset with me over comments I made and tried to jump on board. I do think you are unnecessarily or overly hostile at times but that is your style and its been your thing for a long time and it doesn't bother me much...but it has at times bothered some others. But there is no law that says you have to be nice so you do you.

@losetoa6 no one here, especially myself, wants you to leave.

Naw his beef is with me because I call him out on his ridiculous BS nonsense and now he wants to buddy up with someone else who I ACCIDENTALLY offended as if they are on the same side.

Just stop accusing people of things when you have absolutely no evidence. That is slander. There is no place for it. If you actually have proof that there is some conspiracy like you suggest then show it. Prove it. Otherwise stop making stuff up and slandering people.

I don't care if he wants to spout crazy that the guidance is no good...he is wrong imo but whatever, that is his opinion. But I cannot stand his assertions that there is some kind of nefarious conspiracy by the people who program NWP to intentionally mislead. He makes these accusations without a shred of evidence to substantiate them. Its slander against some really brilliant and principled people, some of whom participate in this very thread. I know most choose to just ignore him but I just can't stomach that he thinks its acceptable to make those kinds of unfounded accusations against people in this forum.

Should I set up a glacier tours of Maryland business?

I didn't mean to attack or offend him. Whatever I said to upset him was unintended. I INTEND to attack you and will continue to so long as you continue to make the unsubstantiated and unwarranted SLANDER that you perpetrate against the dedicated scientists (some of whom frequent this board) who work in NWP! It's disgusting and ridiculous and you should be ashamed of yourself!

I am honestly not sure what you took as an attack...but I am sorry I upset you.

Look at what the storm for Friday looked like when it was 150 hours away. There is a VERY predictable and repetitive pattern this season of guidance wanting to phase systems with the NS to our west and cut things into the blocking...and it has never actually happened. We have missed a few perfect track systems because of lack of cold, we have missed a couple storms because they phased off the coast too late, and we missed a few storms that got suppressed. They have not been cutting like that despite what guidance shows 150-200 hours away.

Oh look guidance adjusting south in the day 5-7 period...SHOCKED. You mean storms don't just cut up into 1045 high pressure systems with a -5 stdv AO. BTW earlier today out of curiosity I was cycling back several days on the guidance and at that range they showed this storm upon us now (that might even end up south of some of us) cutting and almost in the exact same way they were showing the system next week...by over emphasizing the northern stream and phasing too much with the TPV in the upper midwest...and you could see them adjust and do less and less and less each run until it ended up a wave going under us. Not shocked to see signs of the same adjustment.

is the guidance that divergent...or are we just giving too much weight to ONE MODEL. Yea I know its "the king" but its prone to errors just like the others. While better its scores are not so superior that it should be taken against all other evidence. Right now it seems to be completely on its own with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away. That is a big deal because we are now in range that the 0z meso guidance coming out should be given some significant weight and it all agrees with a more north wave 1 like the GFS/ICON/GGEM. The euro is a little south with wave 2...but not THAT much, its the differences wave 1 that make it look so crazy off...and plus if we cannot trust its representation of wave 1 why can we trust what it is showing wave 2? IMO its likely the euro is just having an issue here. If we ignore it...the rest of guidance isn't really that far apart from each other imo.

don't let it affect you she is like that to EVERYONE

I think wave 2 comes far enough north that there is some overlap between the southern boundary of snowfall with wave 1 and the northern boundary with wave 2. But there will likely be a bit of a minimum in between the two maxes from the waves...and yea there is a risk that is near your area. I think wave 2 juices up some though and might give a late save.

They make simulations which meteorologists use to help make forecasts. And a lot of those recent snowfall forecasts have also busted pretty badly in his location. I think the tone of his post was fair.