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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Wave 2 is THE real game wrt fun rates but that looks like a VA special.
  2. psuhoffman
    Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here.
  3. psuhoffman
    I wouldn’t assume a north trend. This is more similar to some of the waves over the years that didn’t.
  4. psuhoffman
    I think anyone expecting the euro clown map numbers will likely be let down. These kinds of weak non amplifying overrunning waves historically put down 2-4 or 3-6”. The euro was getting those crazy totals by training the moisture feed over the same places for 48 hours and unrealistic ratios. Both are unlikely. But it could be a nice solid snowfall and sometimes you get lucky and these are more but banking on 8”+ from this kind of synoptic setup is setting yourself up to be disappointed again.
  5. psuhoffman
    I’m not impossible to satisfy. I just want a March 58 repeat where I get 50” of wet snow from 5” qpf with no wind so it just piles up uniformly but I want it during prime climo and after that storm passes I want an ice storm with 5” of sleet ended as a half inch of freezing rain to encase my snowpack and protect it then an Arctic front that drops temps below 0 and about 2 weeks without getting above freezing and cloudy most of the time preferably. That’s all I ask.
  6. psuhoffman
    If that’s all from one storm maybe
  7. psuhoffman
    I’m just analyzing the run. The second wave doesn’t gain any latitude. Not a forecast. Just a factual statement of this run. And Baltimore gets screwed by it so...think you would care about the observation.
  8. psuhoffman
    NAM improved with wave 1. Not sure it’s in useful range for wave 2 yet.
  9. psuhoffman
    Wave 2 doesn’t seem to want to gain any latitude
  10. psuhoffman
    It’s a nice run so far if you are in DC or anywhere north. More amplified so more precip and from DC north is cold enough. It’s not like 12z that blasted the 850s way north. But south of DC has mixing issues so not as good there. Anyone south of DC needs to root for a weaker wave to have a shot. More amplified probably pushed the boundary north of them. But they could still score Friday depending what happens with the trailing energy.
  11. psuhoffman
    Also more juiced with the wave to the west. Rare combo
  12. psuhoffman
    Slight decrease overall because the losses from wave 1 slightly offset the gains from wave 2. Wave 2 is the potentially more dynamic and fun but wave 1 was closer. Whatever. There isn’t much separation between the two anymore either. There is really no lull anymore. Just a long fetch it weak WAA precip ahead of the main wave (2nd) now. The first wave isn’t even a distinct entity anymore imo.
  13. psuhoffman
    It’s over at 90. If you look at the 1 hour precip it’s moving off the coast by then.
  14. psuhoffman
    Some people don’t heed warnings
  15. psuhoffman
    Anyone ever wondered what would happen if we got the western N American pattern of 1994 but with a -NAO. We might be about to find out.
  16. psuhoffman
    This is cray cray so the next 15 days is... and then it REALLY gets good lol
  17. psuhoffman
    It’s there but like the op weaker and gets going late for big snowstorm here. Supports a light snow. Colder then op. It really likes next week.
  18. psuhoffman
    1960s redux
  19. psuhoffman
    EPS all over next week
  20. psuhoffman
    Yea but imagine the mess if we were posting about all these threats in one thread.
  21. psuhoffman
  22. psuhoffman
    I think this pattern runs into March and we eventually just run out of season.
  23. psuhoffman
  24. psuhoffman
    would think it sucks more for everyone else having to read my posts in the wrong threads
  25. psuhoffman
    Since 1990 La Nina February's with a -NAO average 16" of snow at BWI.
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