psuhoffman

That looks like the wave in March 99

This is 100% true if we are talking about HECS level snowstorms. But frankly it's only in the last 20 years they have become common enough to even be a "thing" that we chase. When I first started this it was KU or MECS level events that were the BIG DOGS. HECS or 20" plus type storms were so rare it wasn't even worth a thought. Then they started happening every few years and so it became a thing. But it is really only a thing under one VERY specific pattern, a Moderate or stronger Nino with a -NAO. 6 of the last 7 HECS storms fall under that category with the one exception being 1996. Yes I know technically the NAO was neutral in the 2003 storm but there was a massive north atlantic vortex that simulated the exact same thing as a -NAO so essentially it was a de facto same pattern. Point is a moderate to strong nino with blocking is the only situation that makes a widespread 20" type storm likely in the mid atlantic. But if we lower the bar to a KU or MECS level event I don't think the nina really affects our chances much at all so long as we have blocking. If we look at Nina's in the last 30 years that featured significant blocking periods we got a MECS/KU level storm in 96, 2000, 2006, 2011 and March 2018 would have DEFINITELY been at least a MECS maybe HECS level storm if it hadn't been March 21 and the blocking had set in earlier that winter. I also don't think the close miss in 2011 had anything to do with the nina. There was a nice STJ feed and that was a miller A, we just got really unlucky with a vort and that can happen in a nino also...remember December 2018! That was just bad luck. We almost had another HECS nina event imo. The only Nina winter with significant blocking that failed to produce a MECS event here was 2001 which is historic for its fail's. I think if we run the table with blocking we should expect at least one flush hit of a MECS level and if we don't get one I do think that counts as a fail (on the level of 2001) regardless of the nina status.

I remembered years ago in the fall of an impending Nina (I think it was 2016-17) I did some seasonal research and was shocked to find that what makes a Nina so terrible isn’t that it mutes an NAO. It’s that we suck monkey nuts and get NO snow unless we get a -NAO and since those are exceedingly rare since the 80s... So I went back and found my files and updated them with the last few years. These are the actual splits for every -NAO month since 1990 at BWI. I hate using DCA. It’s depressing and I do think BWI is more representative of most in the 95 corridor. December La Niña -NAO avg snow 2.2” 17% above avg Non Nina -NAO Avg snow 6.1. 40% above avg so yes in December a Nina mutes the NAO. So this years challenged start despite a -NAO in hindsight should have been expected but get a load of this... January Nina -NAO avg 15.9” 67% above avg Non Nina -NAO AVG 5.6” 50% above avg February nina -NAO avg 16.1” 100% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 11.5” 50% above avg March nina -NAO avg 3.6” 50% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 1.0” 25% above avg So in January to March our mean snowfall with a -NAO is actually HIGHER in a Nina then non Nina months and our chances of having an above avg snowfall month is higher in a -NAO Nina. The reason Nina’s suck is actually because a -NAO is pretty rare and they are horrid without one. When I did my warning event snowfall study I don’t think there was a single Nina one in the whole 70 year study without a -NAO! We simply do not snow much without a -NAO in a Nina. But the truth is a -NAO seems to have the same effect, and maybe even better, in a Nina as in other enso states.

1958 and 1960 kept showing to in analogs. Maybe that wasn’t crazy.

@Bob Chill so this is where all 3 majors leave us going into late February AFTER our run the next 2 weeks. Lol

looks like the euro snow map basically

It's similar in some aspects to 1994 but with more blocking on the NAO side...which could suppress the boundary a little further south. So maybe take that and adjust what happened in PA to our area...ok yea that is a bit weenie but its also not totally out of the question, my pattern observation wasn't a joke.

been enjoying my 7" today...did something change?

Just off the top of my head I thought of February 1987, November 1987, March 2014, March 2015 and March 2018. That is 5 examples. And if I can think of 5 just from memory I am SURE there are more. But 5 is A WHOLE LOT of something that has...."NEVER HAPPENED SINCE 1975" was I think exactly what you said. Yes...never...except the 5 times I thought of just off the top of my head. For something, 4" storms at DCA, that frankly don't happen themselves all that often. I would argue its not nearly as rare as what you lead to believe in your post.

So SOME of this is bad luck. That January storm in 2019 for instance had nothing to do with UHI or AGW. But I also think SOME portion of this is indicative of a larger scale issue for you. You're location has the unfortunate issue of BOTH and expanding and worsening UHI effect AND being near the Bay. It's a pretty big double whammy. You have no elevation to offset either. You are always going to be a local minimum. But add in the fact that both the UHI and AGW are getting worse...and do I need to continue. A lot of your snow, looking at historical records, was very marginal to begin with. What would a 6" snowstorm in the 1960s or 1980s that fell with temperatures right near 32-33 degrees be now with both the UHI getting worse independent of AGW and then AGW compounding that? Even the 1990s...think about that one good snowstorm we had in 1997. BWI recorded 5.8" but the high that day was 38 and the low was 30 and if I recall most of the snow fell with temps right around 32 degrees. That was at BWI which probably runs a couple degrees colder then you. Would that have even been a snowstorm if we repeated that exact same setup. The QPF was marginal to overcome a warm boundary layer. I think it was like a uniform .4-.6 across the area. Kinda like today! Was this a replay of that storm in todays climate? I do think you will break out of this sooner or later. Yes bad luck has some to do with this and even with those factors you should have had more snow the last few years then you did...but some of these issues probably aren't going away and you will always be a snowfall minimum in our region because of your geographic location.

unfortunately it feels like the eye of that needle is getting smaller and smaller due to you know what

so normal then

looking at all the coop data in the area it was between 16-20" here. Before they migrated all the coop stuff over to the new CLIMOD2 system there was way more. I did a lot of research back about 10 years ago. Had to scour through various databases and state climatology offices and even had to email and request some stuff. I love the new system, makes searching way easier to have it all in one database but unfortunately a lot of data didn't get populated into the new system and they took most of the old ones offline.

That wasn't the day before. The storm started THAT DAY...and it flipped to snow before midnight and DCA recorded a trace. That was the day the storm started just as much, even moreso as yesterday counts for today's storm!

Yes up here got like 16-20" in like 8 hours...would have loved that storm. BTW @WEATHER53 might want to check out March 4 2015 also. Unless my memory is wrong it was in the 50's and the next morning DCA got like 4.8" of snow. It was also in the 50's before the storm in 2018 started and I think DCA got over 4" barely in that one too. November 10th 1987 was 59 degrees as that storm started. I am sure there are more but those are 4 examples just off the top of my head...and considering how few 4" snowstorms there are at DCA that makes it NOT that rare a thing for something that HAS NEVER HAPPENED apparently. CRAZY!!!

The coastal didn't amp up enough imo. Yea we got some nice banding of precip riding north up the inverted trough with the NS wave in the lakes...and that is typical with a juiced up SS wave and the gulf open for business. But the coastal took its good old time getting its act together and didnt really amplify so the banding was hit or miss and there was no surface NE flow. That combo killed the 95 corridor.

Just off the top of my head Feb 22 1987 DCA had a high of 48 and that night into the following morning recorded 10.3” of snow. There was no cold front just a coastal storm.

“Storm” is over but it’s doing that upslope snizzle thing I often get for a whole after a storm passes. That’s ok because every hour it does this preserves a little precious snowpack from the evil February sun

I measured 5.2 on my deck before the lull. Measured another 1.8 after from the second round. But depth never got above 5.8 and now it’s compacted back to like 5 again. So 7 actually fell between the two heavy bands but we never passed 5.8 depth due to compaction during the lull. Also this is the kind of borderline event where my 300 extra feet might have mattered some. It was 33 during a lot of the storm even up here.

Been focused more on shirt range lol. I’m trying to be holistic about the whole period. Guidance will struggle with exactly where the boundary sets up but history suggests it’s near us. There are so many waves coming at us the next 2 weeks I find it hard to believe we don’t go on a run. If we can avoid getting into the warm sector we may even do the glacier building thing.

My neighbors on both sides sold their houses within the last few years so might have missed your chance. I’m trying not to take it personally.

Can we get 6” snow and 6” ice instead? Please lol

Lol I live on top of a mountain. Furthermore it’s the first significant ridge in eastern MD. So with any easterly wind flow the upslope is crazy. Yea I’m not at 3000 feet like western MD but east of me aren’t more mountains it’s the coastal plain. So I get 1000 ft of upslope with an east fetch. That’s why I fear the fringe. It’s the only way I don’t win.

Getting one last hurrah although at this point snow is compacting at almost the same rate it’s accumulating lol. Nice storm though.