psuhoffman

Getting one last hurrah although at this point snow is compacting at almost the same rate it’s accumulating lol. Nice storm though.

6.5” total. Compacted to 5.5” depth now.

I always root for my yard but once it’s obvious it’s shifting to my east I want the banding to crush everyone else. Unfortunately 95 ended up in the screw zone between the crazy fgen banding on the eastern shore and the typical oragraphically enhanced banding to the NW. Baltimore keeps finding ways to fail EVERY storm it’s amazing. @CAPE hope that band sits over you a few more hours!!!

My house is at 1,035 feet which helps A LOT! Other then about 20 mins in one band Monday this was much better and more fun. I know but there was a moment on Friday when all guidance had a sub 1000mb low amplifying as it passed the VA capes and that was a scenario where we could beat climo and get a 4-8 maybe 10” more widespread thump snow. You add slightly better banding, lift, and more NE surface wind and suddenly 34 degree moderate slush is 32 degree rippin fatties. I guess with the history of these kinds of waves usually amping up more when there isn’t any suppression I bought in. Once guidance started to back away this result was more inevitable.

I am very pleased with my yard but kinda disappointed for everyone else. Was pulling for a more amplified coastal so we had a region wide celebration. This seems pretty elevation dependent.

Just hit 5”. 3rd verified warning of the season. Need one more inch to pass 30. Gonna pay for this in years to come lol.

Sometimes radar doesn’t seem to do this area justice. I wonder if the beam starts to attenuate as it gets up here because radar says the band is mostly just southeast of me but this is what’s really happening... closing in on 5”

Just measured 4” looks like the heaviest band is setting up just to my southeast though.

Sorry. We needed the more amped up solution to cool the boundary layer. It’s not just the precip. Yea we have good moisture transport out of the gulf streaming north ahead of the NS trough but the more amped coastal would have added a northerly surface wind component and helped a little. Might still. The low seems to be a little slower getting it’s act together. Maybe we get a late save as it passes the outer banks if it can amplify enough.

No sympathy for your former location?

Looks like a little over 2” here. I’m still at 32. That’s never good when I’m 32 at 1000 ft during heavy snow.

When last year was that? All I remember was a raging +AO all winter

I still very much like the overall pattern. Multiple chances coming. But would be nice to get a hit from the first one.

Unfortunately I don’t like where this is heading

A couple days ago maybe

I wasn’t comparing radar to ground qpf. I was comparing modeled radar to actual radar. It was more expensive at 3z. That’s not subjective. Then you said that you prefer to use upper level ROAB and ground qpf reports then when I explained why that’s not really feasible in real time here you moved the goal posts. You can argue radar comps don’t matter. They aren’t the best but with a newly blossoming area of precip it’s the best you can do until you get ground reports but by then we will pretty much know in this case. But there was a more expansive precip field in the TN valley at 3z then any simulated one on the guidance I checked. Not sure why you want to die on this hill.

Gfs and icon both shifted way north with the waves this week. Hopefully just a bad op run and not a trend.

I hope the NAMs didn’t head fake us again

Can’t do that yet since the precip is breaking out now. By the time those observations come in its practically going to be time to see where the banding sets up. You’re making too much from it. There is a slightly more expensive precip shield down south then modeled but I didn’t say that’s definitely a sign this is going to be better. Just made the observation and said it could be a good thing.

There is a lot of truth here...but I think there was a moment yesterday when thinking a 6-10” storm was likely wasn’t a weenie overreaction. Just look at what some red tags were saying! That wasn’t the max run either. There were a couple NAM runs that showed 12-16”. At a point yesterday when all guidance was indicating 6”+ was very likely and things were steadily trending the right way I think setting a bar of a 6” storm was realistic. For some (me) it’s not that easy to just go into “oh well at least it will snow” mode. Maybe that’s because I’m a big storm chaser not a snow chaser. And by big storm it doesn’t have to be 20”. That 3” squall I had last winter was awesome. That was memorable. 6” in 4 hours is memorable. This is just me, and I know most don’t agree and that’s cool, but I could care less about a 2” storm. Yea while it’s happening I’ll enjoy it some and it’s fine but I don’t track for that. Frankly I would rather a winter where I got 10” all in one storm then a winter with 30” that all fell 1-3” at a time. That’s a whole lot of blah to me. But I don’t begrudge anyone enjoying the crap out of 1” of snow. Good for them! I do think a couple were going too far with the debbing. Some were making it even worse then it was. I felt like all I was doing was analyzing the runs same as I always do only since they were bad the observations were “it’s bad”.

Had the guidance trended better today it would have been good. Yesterday was awesome and the thread was a weenie fest. Today the guidance was one nut punch after another and so the thread got negative. There is a correlation.

Wait was that you coming out of the dispensary in Westminster earlier today???

Compare the 3k NAM radar at 3z and 4z to what’s happening now. The precip is more expansive and the trajectory is more north then the 3k has it. Doesn’t necessarily extrapolate but it’s not a bad sign Imo.

The SS SW is in Arkansas moving into TN now. That precip breaking out in TN is associated with lift ahead of it. That’s what will become the area of precip that will affect us tomorrow so seeing it outperform guidance is good.

If the nams can't handle a storm 6 hours away....what's the purpose lol? Ask Weather53