psuhoffman

That’s actually not a bad map and pretty close to my current thinking in our area. Might be too liberal with the 3-6 area way up north and I might have the axis of the 6-10 more ENE then. NE and make it 6-12 because I think some isolated spots hit close to 12.

On the 3k the high is north of east of Ontario so I have no idea. Yea the location of that blue H may not be hut there is a huge sprawling banana high from the Midwest to New England and a general center is north of Ontario. On the euro the main max is in upstate NY but the pressure is 1034 north of Ontario and 1035 in upstate NY. That is insignificant. The whole high didn’t move the model is just jumping around with where the exact lowest pressure in that huge sprawling high is run to run. I honestly don’t have a clue what you’re on about.

KU no but we often do get decent snow events AFTER a blocking episode breaks down due to the course of events that was already set in motion.

Ok... umm... so...AAAAHHHHHHH Deep breaths, calm calm calm....count to 10....ok ready 1. The high is north of Ontario...it stretches across all of Ontario into southern Quebec and New England. The exact to the fraction of a MB center of the high is irrelevant. 2. Yes there are duel centers and one is a little east of where we might see the avg of all our HECS storms but... not all setups are the same. This is NOT a HECS scenario. We do not currently have any blocking. Yes the extreme blocking we had kicked off the progression that got us to this point so I am not denying blocking had a lot to do with this threat...but at this moment there is none and without a high located in front of it, it would cut. The high is kinda perfect for THIS setup...directly in the way of the axis of where the low wants to track. Creating the resistance to the screaming SW to NE jet and forcing the storm to track further east then it would otherwise given the upper level flow. Not all setups are the same and you cannot apply generic rules to every snow scenario. There are even some rare setups where we don't need a high at all...like in the case of a boundary wave along an arctic front or an inverted trough setup. You have to analyze the physics of each specific synoptic setup individually.

lol ok I see now...problem is the pivoltal maps are a LOT more conservative then those wxbell ones so its not a fair comp. The 12z Pivotal only had you at 6.5" and its about 4.5 on 19z. So yea a trend down...but not as extreme as it seems comparing a liberal 12z map to a conservative 18z one. lol

It took your specific location from 6.5" to 4.5" on the Kuchera so not exactly a HUGE difference...and you are a local minimum between two meso bands which is not likely to be portrayed exactly accurate on a global at 48 hours out. That said yea it was worse and put you in the split zone which given this season I totally get not wanting to see that.

Naw on closer inspection he is right. The center of the high looks to be around the Mt Royal district of Montreal, just west of McGill University. Ideally, using a composite of all snowstorms, we would rather that be in the Old Montreal district along the river...maybe a block southeast of Notre-Dame Basilica.

@CAPE It has the double max thing some guidance shows...the 6" plus area south of DC is from the lead wave Tuesday morning that DC is on the northern fringes of the heavy stuff with...then it runs a second heavy band of precip up in the afternoon and evening but 95 SE is mixy so the heavy snow with that is NW of 95...creating that kinda dead space of 4-6" in between the 6" plus zones. Luckily this time the "dead zone" looks like a local minimum but not the total screw job some recent storms had.

@CAPE

What on gods green Earth are you smoking.

It’s on pivotal

There is some. They lose 850s for 6 hours on the high res maps. It’s super close but since there is likely a small warmer layer somewhere other then exactly 850 we can assume it’s not snow. And that period is a decent chunk of precip. That said the kuchera maps seem overly conservative. I think because this storm has fairly high thicknesses and I think kuchera factors that in its being overly pessimistic. Ratios won’t be high but not as low as it’s going where it has like 8-1 with all levels sub zero and cold ground. That’s too low imo. It wasn’t a horrible run but it was worse then 12z and the runt of 18z. It didn’t trend north though. Just dryer. Cut down on snow up in PA also!

Those SV maps count ice as 10-1 snow

Nice improvement on gefs 18z was a much colder run.

Yea in that case it’s harder to pin the exact mix line but if there is a meso banding feature along the front like much guidance hints at my guess is the mix is just south of it.

This seems relevant

The NAMs both took another major step towards the globals.

Where that banding among the boundary sets up likely is mostly snow. In my experience the dynamics and the ability of heavy rates to mix our a small warm layer typically wins in that band. Plus the mid level warm layer typically is where you get the dry slot. So no matter what the guidance says that band is often where the snow/sleet line sets up just south of it.

Over under how many more times you ask

Yup. I never thought the pattern didn’t look good long range. I just think people were depressed when this week looked bad and we’re transferring that into the long range. A -NAO pattern in late winter will yield opportunities regardless of the pac.

That post wasn’t directed at you specifically. But I do very much want everyone to get snow. But I also don’t want to get left out. Those two things can both be true. When I worry about “fringed” sometimes it’s a joke. Sometimes it’s legit and it does happen. I got fringed last week. But I don’t pretend that is about anything other then my yard. I do try to make posts from a region wide focus also though. I make some posts directed at the northern crew that’s more imby focused. And I make some that are DC centric. At least I try too. My warm layer concerns for example were more for DC then me even. Although I do think that’s the bigger fail threat up here also. But it’s especially problematic for DC. And I want them to get annihilated for a change! And yes I want to get snow up here also. Why does it have to be one or the other? Cant I root for my yard AND everyone else’s also?

@Bob Chill eps 24 hour trend

I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC. It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least. But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here). Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that. Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years. I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room.

We were too busy commiserating the failure of the snow pattern to notice the brief cold snap.

@Bob Chill clown comp