psuhoffman

Just like everything else it depends on the situation. In my experience the Kuchera maps seem to depend way too much on heights and thicknesses. In scenarios where its cold aloft and the surface is warm its way too liberal with snow totals. In scenarios where the surface is cold but its warm aloft is can run too low so long as the warm layer is isothermal and stays below freezing.

Thanks for giving me 3 inches back. This shouldn't be that difficult to accumulate unless the rates are low since surface is torching at 26 I still like my 4-8" call for Loudon County.

@Ji this one looks better... In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative. And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low. But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios. Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off. I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here.

Next frame will be one closer to us finding out what the euro thinks the solution is.

get out and push

ECHO

There will be significant ice in the 1-3 and 3-6" zones. I think freezing rain will be a major problem just to the south of the 1-3" zone and through the 1-3" zone after it flips. I think it will be mostly sleet in the 3-6" zone with some freezing rain mostly during periods of light precipitation.

I am 100% confident that map will be wrong. The question is HOW wrong.

This is my first hypothesis at a theory that might evolve into a guess of a future forecast. Any resemblance to other forecasts, living or dead, is completely coincidental.

I agree, the cold is going to be at its best as that first wave approaches, but we have no control over it and that is the trend so I am rolling with it.

There is a definite trend towards a weaker initial wave Thursday morning but a stronger second (maybe even 3rd wave) after it. I know that complicates things but there is one factor that makes me confident we can avoid a total disaster. There is a synergy between the waves that makes a total fail unlikely. As wave 1 trends weaker...wave 2 trends better because the mid level boundary doesn't get blasted way to the north and the next wave activates it again. So...if the mid level warm push is stronger like on the NAM we get wave 1 and if its weaker like on the GFS and GGEM then we get some of wave 1 and wave 2...maybe a wave 3. But it seems unlikely the way they are set up that all the waves miss. But this multiple wave scenario adds a level of complexity to this.

why limit ourselves...lets stall this boundary and snow until April.

slightly better scores overall last time I saw a comp

its on pivotal Models: GFSv16 — Pivotal Weather

CMC goes for the full 3 wave solution like the RGEM and PARA almost did...gets some decent snow NW of 95 with wave 2 then a NICE hit for DC with wave 3 Friday Afternoon and Evening!

Para has the two wave idea also... but its NICE with wave 2...gets good snow into DC with that even. This is becoming more complicated, but there is a path to a big win here if we can stick both waves.

para has that wave on Friday evening like the RGEM...hits southeast VA and the southern Delmarva...but its something new to keep an eye on. The trough is still hanging out to our west...the RGEM and Para decide to take a trailing vort and dig and amplify the trough before it kicks through. That is not impossible. LONG shot...the baroclinic zone will be pretty far off the coast by then...but if the h5 trough cam amplify and go negative its not impossible.

@Deck Pic That struck me as one of those "weird" runs the GFS spits out sometimes that you just have to toss. Not even necessarily saying its final results wrt snowfall is all that wrong...just the way it gets there.

@CAPE you got your friend Para back

Last run was almost a mile...Trends!

There was some massive sleet pellets in the March 1994 storm where I was in Northern VA near Dulles.

I dunno.. btw I’m still looking for that Montreal map.

Who has a good street map of Montreal? Trying to figure something out.

It usually doesn’t matter much because when it has that kind of feature it’s typically subsidence induced between banding. The bigger problem being you are in between meso death bands so warm layer or not you weren’t getting heavy snow at that moment anyways. Plus it won’t be correct on the exact placement of it either.

The track is damn near perfect now. Duel low structure with a primary into east TN and coastal tracks from outer banks to about 75 miles off Delmarva and northeast.