Baum

beavis is rocking his tropical speedos today for sure.

euro sees what im seeing quad cities THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. DURING A PATTERN CHANGE MODEL PREDICTABILITY DROPS AND CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN IS INCONSISTENT. AS A RESULT THE GLOBAL MODELS NOT ONLY DIFFER ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THEY ALSO DIFFER ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP/EVOLVE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

as always. on point.

no stat padders in Oct/Nov skewing that 12,5 number. We'll probably stat pad our way to average all the way to May

necessary risk

still coming down nice in these parts. Solid flake size.

worrying about the future can make you forget to enjoy the present. Beautiful light snowfall here in the early morning. Been a nice clipper train over the past 48 hours.

looks like January out there.......finally.

more like nickel and dimed : LOT:WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN IMPACT BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWESTERN IN, INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREAS, FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE POOR ARRIVAL TIME OF ANOTHER WAVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

that's a nice event these days.

I guess clipper #3 is a bit lame.

hit an ice patch once and did a quadruple spin and ended facing backwards after the spin out. Very lucky. Only casualty was my under shorts.

no talk about the GHD lll possibilities is a bit concerning.

solid 3-4" based off my snowboard(hood of my car). Not a bust. Event of the season.....so far.

your in wisconsin. you've got bigger concerns.

Not that it can't score a win. But it has always seemed to me the HRRR is the model for those not in the game to lean on at gametime to give hope only to be left in the ditch. I've done it repeatedly. Weenie take. Good news for me in this instance it doesn't matter much.

surprised I didn't see a posting that LOT posted a WWA earlier this morning.

it's not on the ground yet. Third wave looking a touch better now as well on the new GFS for our neck of the woods.

ironically, family right behind me has a skating rink. My guess is they'll have a bon fire going and doing just that!

accidently heard cracku-weather on local station going with 2-4". Be nice, if that were a trend in today's models. I'll take whatever I can get. Nice fluffy, snowfall on a saturday night against the background of my remaining Christmas lights with a beverage in hand sounds good.

nice appetizer as we await GHD III

as currently discussed here by LOT this is my biggest event this winter so far, provided it pans out: A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN, AN INCREASE IN QPF AND AN OVERALL, THOUGH STILL SMALL, SHIFT NORTH TO THE AXIS OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WITH A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ, THE SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY DRY, PERHAPS INTO THE 18:1 RANGE. THUS ANY INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY ADD TO SNOWFALL TOTALS. A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PART OF THE AREA AND ITS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE AN NARROW SWATH OF 4-5 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SHIFT NORTH IN THE MODELS LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR WHERE THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY SET UP, THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST IN THE I-88 TO I-80 AREA. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH AN INCH AN HOUR IN THIS NARROW BAND, FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO LAST ONLY 3-5 HOURS. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, ITS POSSIBLE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED

live look at MBY

The hope is to cover the brown patches until we can perhaps ride a pattern change with some southern stream energy after the end of the month. Duster tracking for now. It's come to this.