cleetussnow

I so want to go to my camp this weekend in Old Forge. They will have 20 before this ends. Winter has suddenly appeared there with over 50 inches this month. My wife will change the locks if I go.

Well it will certainly last until June 1.

The climate is changing at the moment for sure, but it doesn't appear that there is some kind of long term stability/balanced/harmonious climate state, and I mean in a thousands years timescale or something like that. The Yellow Emperor, Caesar, Charlemagne, Louis the 14th, and Lincoln all had different climate as far as we know from records and accounts. Keep going back in human history before writing and its generally warmed since. I'm not sure if we can really say the climate is altered forever and that this particular observed period is vastly different than other fluxy periods. I think the human lifespan is short compared to what a significant climate episode likely is. A significant episode could be like an ice age, or some other event that extends past a few hundred year period. Is warming over 50 years meaningful? Will it last 10,000 years? I dunno. The former is within our lifetimes so it gets the most consideration since that is the only time scale anyone living can experience. Its 29 here, clear sky, light breeze today. Pretty normal for this date and locale. Does that matter?

Go take your pill.

Oh I agree, but I got a 14 year old. Those 150 miles (actually 166 miles) were on high traffic trails. What starts as stutter bumps increases to deep whoopti doos by nightfall. I’m ready for Maine. The fact they give out t shirts for 150 miles is telling. We got the only ones that day.

Looking for a year around campground on the vast system so I can haul my equipment up and leave it all season. This way when I want to go to Maine it’s on the way. Anywhere VT will do.

I know. 250 miles per day, right? Check this out: In NY my kid and I got a free t shirt for riding 150 miles in a day last weekend. I’m still sore.

Hey snowmobiling crew...Maine is happening for me next season for sure. But I need to relocate my weekend regular riding. Thinking VAST and relocating camp.

Lol. If that hits I get a dry slot at my house and my camp upstate is buried until June.

Verbatim dry slot crushing nyc crowd, just after the wind blown rain deluge.

Ha. We get hit by. 961 low twice with that retrograde loop de dupe, and yes that would salvage winter for many.

March 93 ain’t walking through that door.

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/09/804266975/british-airways-sets-speed-record-crossing-the-atlantic-in-under-5-hours @Typhoon Tip. Here is another example of a jetliner crossing the Atlantic with a SuperSonic ground speed riding the jet stream. A new record for a subsonic jetliner. Under 5 hours New York to London.

I’m in on the d6. I love the ukie. Seems like a good model.

Per gfs if that the LP next weekend goes much further west we can track convection maybe. That’s a threat.

I was living in germany I think - honestly have no memory of it. I also don't remember 78 being a hit there, but i could be mixing those 2 years. NOW i do remember something up there in 94....

I could go with 93 to 2015. My first storm memory was 77. The next one is 93. Lol.

Wouldn’t surprise me if this pattern persists for the long haul. The pacific is big heater and it needs to cool off, and I don’t know what mechanism would do that anytime soon. I think that little snowy epoch we had for about 15 years blew itself out finally. It’s the mid west’s turn in the barrel.

It times well with the next system. Without a block the fast flow lends credence to a fish storm so that's what's in the offing this weekend. There isn't a whole ton of support for the snowy solution now save a couple runs here and there for this weekend. Let the fish have at it, and we can feast on the next one.

I was thinking 4 days is when models will home in on solutions, but they might already be homed in. Looks whiffy. However that last 2 events, which were never really interesting for these parts, moved in 100 mile increments right up until game time and outcomes were west and warmer. Different scenario, but point is don’t buy anything esp. in marginal conditions until game time. If I had to bet, this whiffs or rains. Too many variables have to align for the snowy solutions.

Lol yes Maine gets whacked. I would not celebrate yet if I were them. Dr no doesn’t even sniff them

Snowfall maps are not effective at this range. 7.5 days? 2 days maybe... its not not a world beater anyway with a 990 LP

Not a lot of wiggle room. 4 of the last 5 gfs runs have a similar track, so that’s a plus. But there is a lot of time and dr. No to contend with.

Gfs is a decent hit but...east of previous run.

IIRC the old euro had a bias of hanging the sw back too long, only to correct later? Seems like I remember that. this storm has that sort of back and forth modeling we saw many times in the snowy years. Probably won’t play out the same way: gfs picks up on something early, euro agrees, then they both waver with the euro out underneath due to slow eject. Then wham a nice euro run and everything else catches up. Would be fun to track like the old days. Edit just snow snow88 post. Yeah...but I think the model has a new set of issues nowadays...i.e. it’s generally more erratic