cleetussnow

Trying o decide to go to old forge for some riding. This will matter.

Thanks Wolfie for the pivotal maps. I need to use those and not the limited ttb maps.

I can’t help but notice the torch and rain on day 9. Things can change but it’s a repeating scenario.

At least this isn’t a huge Rainer and 50s. Welp. Back to the panic room for a couple days.

There is value in knowing that there is a storm (of some kind) in the first place. Despite the variable details across the various models, that's huge as it is. Of course we need specifics for our practical weather but we need other skill for that. And that's the fun part...Humans! ;-)

It’s bad luck to be superstitious.

Happy new year!

Happy new year!

It’s a worth a chase. I have a camp up there.

Yeah saw that and then the gfs went in that direction as well. The trends are colder and that sort of started last night. Interesting.

12 z Gfs is trying to slip east. Not there yet, but trends are slightly less cutty.

I am so glad I got some riding in before Christmas. 200 miles. You go when there is snow. Keeping an eye on day 6. Not expecting too much but there are a few ways it can snow synoptically or LE or both. I’ll worry about the LR later. Track what’s coming next.

Hard to ride the gfs OP long term. Euro shows some promise but that said I agree that January isn’t going to produce much except cuts. Teles argue for that. We shall see what things look like in 10 days, but expectations low here. Making plans for Park City. Screw this.

GFS cuts January 6th situation. Long way out though and it’s the GFS.

Figured I’d just show myself in and take a seat. Not feeling good about the pattern for the next 2 weeks. It’s the 80s again.

Yep. I remember that. But also remember that from 7 days out there were GFS and Euro solutions that were all over the storm, and then it flattened out to nothing on the models. I remember because at 6 days I was honking to all my friends about this major storm, and I sent an email to like 50 people. Then the models backed off, but I was too busy at work to cancel the storm. So when it came around again and dropped 17 inches on us, everyone thought i could see around corners. I never copped to it.

One of my favorite storms. I think the disrobing was the on the 23rd 0z gfs. The gfs got there first and the euro came around by 12z. One local met, Janice Huff on the 23rd, called for 2 inches while nick Gregory started honking in one of the first times I recall our NY local Mets mentioning models.

Such a scenario would work wonders on the invasive species problem, namely pythons and iguanas. I have first hand experience with the later when a six foot iguana started sunning himself right next to my pool chair at the fountainblue back in September. Wild. Glad it wasn’t a snake.

Agree. I have to remember to sign in so I don’t see the garbage posts. Makes this place unreadable at time.

I'm in. 2 pieces of energy have the perfect spacing. fun tracking perhaps pre Christmas. Goodness we are due. Disrobing at work might be a bit frowned upon, but here goes...

Nice post. I sort of think of the GFS behavior as kind of a "what can go wrong" early warning. The Euro and Ukie (because I now am conditioning myself to weight the UKIE heavier when possible) tend to have a higher conviction with things, and only adjust closer to onset. The GFS rattles the human susceptibility to Type 1 errors. Around here its a particular bias. not judging...I am terribley biased cold. PS I don't follow DT much, but he used to always throw in the 'what can go wrong' missives in his forecasts, which I think is very helpful and educational and smooths biases.

Plus 1 on kinetic tow rope. I have recovery straps and hooks front and back. I want a bungee rope.

I don’t know if all xterras have it. It’s a pro 4 x, the last model year xterra. I used it once in a snowbank. The trick is you have to have it on before you get into the problem area. It went over the bank like nothing. I have to look and see what the ram situation is. It might be limited slip or some other thing. All I know is that when you turn with the 4wd on it will buck if has it has too much grip. Seems like a locker.

My wife has continental terraincontact A/T on her Xterra Pro 4 x. https://www.tirerack.com/tires/tires.jsp?tireMake=Continental&tireModel=TerrainContact+A%2FT&partnum=77SR8TCATOWL&vehicleSearch=true&fromCompare1=yes&autoMake=RAM&autoYear=2017&autoModel=2500 4WD Crew Cab&autoModClar=LT275%2F70-18 or LT285%2F60-20 i found them to quiet on the highway and nothing has stopped it whether it’s mud or snow. AT tires usually suck at something and good at everything else. These are good at everything. This truck also has a rear locking diff and really matters. I have a Ram 2500 with the standard transforce highway tire. Everyone says they suck and they might in fact suck, but they are good on the highway and I haven’t had any issues with the 4wd on so far. I tow a snowmobile trailer up by the tug so I’ve seen some crap. I am thinking once the front wheels are engaged all the engine weight and cab weight make up for marginal tires. I am tempted to get the continentals. I need 2 new tires and it’s cheaper to put the transforce back on instead of a set of 4 new continental tires. I wonder which vehicle is the better as a snow chase vehicle. The xterra is pretty insane 4wd with the lockers especially. It’s light and maneuverable. The ram has a much higher clearance and is very very planted and gives confidence. But if the ram goes off the road somehow, it could be 7500lb problem. Hmmm. No matter what these vehicles are pretty able. I got some ideas about testing them.

My parents had a CB radio base station with that. TWC replaced it. Both were the soundtrack of many winters.