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cleetussnow

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Everything posted by cleetussnow

  1. cleetussnow
    I have a camp up in Old Forge in Herkimer county. Its not really a major LE area. need synoptics.
  2. cleetussnow
    GFS looks good. At this time, I will stick with Euro Ukie and GFS in that order, and then tomorrow take the NAM and mesocscale guidance more serious. this is so borderline for many that the R/S/I line will be gametime call.
  3. cleetussnow
    I’ll be heading to my camp in old forge. Looks good but can’t get into the higher totals that far west and shadowed. I may have to drive through whatever ice condition develops along 87, that’s my main worry. Hopefully it’s all out by 18z or shortly after Friday so I can make my way up.
  4. cleetussnow
    That was a great euro run and it’s possible. Best look since November. Lol
  5. cleetussnow
    Um. Yeah. And also noticed the play button.
  6. cleetussnow
    You want the Euro in your court despite recent erratic behavior. its still the king if weaker. I say ukie + euro is the way to go at this time range.
  7. cleetussnow
    cold is close through all the frames at least. Maybe a good presidents week for skiiing
  8. cleetussnow
    For these HPs to be 'cold' that have to be at least arctic/polar origin, and that is basically in the Hudson Bay at this time frame based on the TTB Euro maps. The cold is pretty bottled up until the storm passes then we can a transient cold shot for like 36 hours, then we don't see another arctic/polar type airmass until later next week. The euro shows just enough cold to tap for western NY/central NY for mostly snow. This is 4 days so in Euro we trust.
  9. cleetussnow
    airmass is trash. I would think an 988 LP would chuck precip further west. I think the convection in the Atlantic is having an effect. But typical with winter, rain to maine. I just hope the western shifts stop.
  10. cleetussnow
    Per gfs if that the LP next weekend goes much further west we can track convection maybe. That’s a threat.
  11. cleetussnow
    if those 6 days threats were our oasis then we would die of thirst. Mirages or minimal qpf to quench thirst. Just then another oasis appears 7 days off, so we crawl and claw on our bedraggled bellies toward it, parched and desperate, but that's all we can do! track. We always have hope and hope never lets us down. here's to winter 2022. i might just turtle up and conserve energy.
  12. cleetussnow
    I was living in germany I think - honestly have no memory of it. I also don't remember 78 being a hit there, but i could be mixing those 2 years. NOW i do remember something up there in 94....
  13. cleetussnow
    I could go with 93 to 2015. My first storm memory was 77. The next one is 93. Lol.
  14. cleetussnow
    Wouldn’t surprise me if this pattern persists for the long haul. The pacific is big heater and it needs to cool off, and I don’t know what mechanism would do that anytime soon. I think that little snowy epoch we had for about 15 years blew itself out finally. It’s the mid west’s turn in the barrel.
  15. cleetussnow
    There really isn’t a strong case to be made for the next 6 days. One can argue the LR because models show promise, but La la land is really day 6. Or 5. It’s like the models don’t believe the fast flow is sustained enough of the time. Next winter will probably repeat if you figure the pacific will remain a furnace. I’m hedging that. The west will do alright and Alaska cold. Could be like this for awhile ala the 80s.
  16. cleetussnow
    IIRC he scored. Don’t think we will
  17. cleetussnow
    Well, maybe the trend you mention...the lead vort that’s playing monkey wrench with this one...if that gets weaker as we get closer, which it appears too, does that follow your observation? I’m not sure myself
  18. cleetussnow
    there are a couple that went from huggers to cutters. Last weekend fits the description
  19. cleetussnow
    And the old playbook of the GFS showing a good storm track in the LR, only to lose it, then it comes back in the short term. We’ve seen this movie yet we didn’t not know how this one ends.
  20. cleetussnow
    That last storm moved hundreds of miles in just a few model cycles before game time. Different set up, of course. Models were steadfast prior and a miller b cut instead. The coast should be interested in this one at least. Inland nasomuch.
  21. cleetussnow
    I’m pretty sick of that song and dance but I keep coming back. Seriously the 18z eps just cooked up a miller b with inland runners in the mix. Might be a head fake but that’s the reason I come in here.
  22. cleetussnow
    MWGA. MaWGA...
  23. cleetussnow
    12z was meh. Tonight’s Oz may not be
  24. cleetussnow
    Well I don’t know if sampling is what’s behind the big changes but many said now is about when to expect a big swing.
  25. cleetussnow
    Maybe we can make lemonade with this lemon fresh storm - 50/50 block so we can lock in the next one.
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