Not entirely fair…yesterday the Euro utterly shit the bed while the GFS held steady. That was less than 24 hrs ago. Yesterdays 12z Euro hardly looks anything like the storm happening outside now. A fail like that inside 24 hrs is more than a blemish.
My point and click still has 7 to 13 in mid Westchester. Warning was lowered to 6. We won’t touch either. I suspect the update at like 3 am, waiting until the 0z suite rolls in to confirm everything.
The New England melt is reaching a fever pitch. I think some will be melting in this forum right through tomorrow. These moves are dramatic for this late in the game.
It's hard to discount the Euro wholesale. It's been south a couple of times over the last few days of model cycles only to recover northerly. On those occasions, the EPS held steady. THIS time the EPS followed suit south. THAT concerns me.
Can’t know for sure, but I’d call the airline and try to get in monday night if you can. Less hassle. But call soon before everyone gets the same idea.
Waaaay too early to discount a north trend, especially since the GFS is also trended north, though not as dramatic. The storm sure can resolve 100 miles more dramatic, and the GFS can do that on its own whim.