Seasonal trend I don’t believe in. Model trends around 1 system I DO believe in. Nothing is really preventing this being a complete rainer up to I 84 and perhaps further and there is plenty of time for that to manifest.
Icon FTW. And I owe NAO an apology.
Agree re late north push. This isn’t unusual, in fact its fairly regular. Nevermind that, just generally the last 36 hrs seem to have larger swings than we would see at this range. Locked isn’t a thing.
Your the only cop around clean it up. Lol.
I get the whole ‘this winter sucks so this storm will suck’ mentality. But that is not how any of this works. Persistence as a forecast tool is not a thing and well argued in these forums. Fluid dynamics are not governed by ‘persistence’ nor are models.
Emotions are great. We love weather. But neither will help making a forecast. Models will. Use THOSE to guide you.
I don’ think we’ll have clarity 4 days out on this one. I think model runs will be all over until gametime. We have to careful not to bite on any particular one, but we are getting three or four runs per day that are closer. Maybe there will be something later to latch onto if this one doesn't’ work out.
like this
or like this one