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cleetussnow

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Everything posted by cleetussnow

  1. cleetussnow
    Adding to this: First, the cutter is a huge storm. Watch what it does on the GFS on tropical - hit PLAY on this map on the link and you can see in motion how the whole eastern half of the US is impacted by this thing. GFS Model – 500mb Height & MSLP for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits It ultimately acts as a 'gear' helping pull cold down in the eastern 1/3 of the US. Exactly HOW that low amplifies the pattern is whats at stake. A Met will chime in right now and correct me.
  2. cleetussnow
    That is exactly where all of the weenies go.
  3. cleetussnow
    word has it the EPS still has it
  4. cleetussnow
    How's the 20-22nd looking on the Euro?
  5. cleetussnow
    Euro be like...
  6. cleetussnow
    we don't want the PV sitting over our heads. Cold and DRY.
  7. cleetussnow
    I think the 16th storm is going to be wobbly until after the cutter this weekend.
  8. cleetussnow
    December 2020 interior, Binghamton add that. 4 feet OTG IIRC! Pretty sure superstorm over the interior somewhere
  9. cleetussnow
    Yeah and a mention of the Super Storm. I bricked up reading it.
  10. cleetussnow
    I was thinking this. The cutters are change agents to a degree, and I don't know if it's the case, but perhaps the 2 cutters in a row are in tandem pattern drivers, not just the one coming up. I can see the cold load out west after the first one, and reload there and press east with the second one, so maybe that's a fact? Is that what's happening?
  11. cleetussnow
    Yeah I feel like that's what happens. We get a period of cold which delivers a couple of nickle and dimers and then a big dog. Perhaps this all goes down in the next 2-3 weeks. I'd sign on for that and take my chances the rest of winter and I'm sure a lot of people here would do so as well.
  12. cleetussnow
    Wait...we're not disrobing? Um ok...gimme a sec...
  13. cleetussnow
    Agree. I am going through the GFS Op and already looks good at 144 with a more positive tilt. This could be fun to track and I am already in the op runs myself. Edit - I need to wait a few more frames on the 12Z run before opening my yap. Doesn't tilt quite like 6z, or how I thought it would.
  14. cleetussnow
    I'm like OH NO there's TWO? But we love MetFan. We have room for 2.
  15. cleetussnow
    Looks like you got it covered! Tip can take a break on this one.
  16. cleetussnow
    All done. Good little wintry storm. Like 2.5 inches of slop OTG north of HPN but probably 4 to 5 actually fell if I was doing a snowboard.
  17. cleetussnow
    Another snow burst here of mod snow. Looks like 20 to 30 minutes left before the precip cuts off. This has been a pleasant storm here because we did not get much if any rain north of HPN. I’ll be sad to see it wash away so quick esp. since the next 10 days do not look promising, in fact the opposite as it stands. Longer term is a crap shoot.
  18. cleetussnow
    I was at Stowe - -30. There was a cold outbreak the week after Christmas that winter as well, though not as severe.
  19. cleetussnow
    A lot of models show light snow until like mid afternoon tomorrow. Not much I’m sure, but its there.
  20. cleetussnow
    Nothing beats a good snow light during a storm. I need to get a good one set up and not piss off my neighbors.
  21. cleetussnow
    More Upton disco re: tomorrow Otherwise, an elongated area of low pressure passes to the south and east of the area tonight into Sunday. Bulk of the precip will occur the first half of tonight, but a mid-level shortwave trough will result in deepening of the surface low just off the southern New England coast on Sunday. This will keep the area under mainly light precipitation, but there is a chance for a heavier band of snow on the backside of the system, especially eastern areas. Even coastal locations should go back to all snow by early Sunday afternoon.
  22. cleetussnow
    Exactly what I’m thinking at this point
  23. cleetussnow
    I’m at about 3 inches here north west of HPN.
  24. cleetussnow
    In fact they do Otherwise, models remain in agreement that low pressure passes to our south tonight and just NW of the 40N/70W benchmark Sunday morning. Bulk of the precip will occur through tonight, but PVA aloft interacting with a surface trough on the backside of the storm brings additional, but lighter precip during the day Sunday.
  25. cleetussnow
    Upton disco NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... The challenge of this forecast will be for areas just inland of the coast the next several hours, particularly interior NE NJ and the CT coast. A strengthening east flow will gradually warm the boundary layer, however, with liquid equivalent rates of .1 to .2"/hr moving up from the south, those areas could see brief snowfall rates of 1 to 2"/hr before mixing with or going over to rain. Inland areas will also see an increase in intensity of the snow the next couple of hours, from SW to NE. Even a slight change in distance north and west will make a difference. For example, KEWR has gone over to plain rain at 37F/34F, while KNYC is right around the freezing mark. Latest dual pol CC from KDIX and KOKX shows lower CC values (marking mixed pcpn going over to rain) near KEWR and along the south shore of LI. This area should advance north with a changeover to all rain across LI and the NYC metro the next 1 to 2 hours. However, model soundings for locations just north and west of NYC, such as KTEB are pointing to a prolonged period of heavy wet snow before the mid levels dry out and an elevated warm layer moves in aloft. At that time, precipitation would transition over to a drizzle or light rain, but the bulk of the heavy precipitation would have fallen as snow. Also, seeing very similar soundings along the CT coast. However, the strengthening easterly flow off the LI Sound is a significant warming factor for the boundary layer. If the wind could stay a bit more north of east the potential is there for higher accumulations. This will have to be watched carefully over the next couple of hours, but for the time will stay the course with the hazards and snowfall amounts.
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