stormy

PSU: I have followed your thoughts probably closer than you realize. Your knowledge is impressive. I at this time really appreciate this reasonable response without the historical angst between you and I. I have at times thought you and I could be friends. We probably got started off on the wrong foot and it was probably my fault. This may have been during the summer of 2021 over my drought conditions. Without wasting precious text space, I really appreciate your admittance that I have noticed more during recent weeks that warming is probably not the only factor in the recent snow drought. I believe that warming could be contributing, especially in D.C. proper but other unrecognized factors are also at play here. The most important consideration is that folks who have a special interest in the weather not be driven to near insanity with hopelessness and they understand that during their lifetime whether they are 15 or 75 the only thing we can do is try to be happy with what we have because we don't have the ability to change it over a lifetime. We will evolve away from any AGW. We will have good snow years and bad snow years in the mentime. I really believe that some have been driven to the depths of despair believing that the world is coming to an end because of warming. I have lived through many ups and downs as I posted from January of 1967. Many of these folks suffering this god-awful despair today will live to see much better times regarding snowfall as I did in the late 60's. Historic snow and cold in January of 1966, springlike warmth in January of 1967, Heavy November snows in 1968. It has been a roller-coaster lifetime of weather.. Many folks on this board hope for snow as I did in January of 1967, only a year after record breaking snowstorms and severe cold, only to be greeted with springtime warmth........... We didn't have any thoughts about warming back in those times and we were only a few years away from the 70's when the best and brightest told us we were approaching another ice-age. My greatest desire is that you and I will have a much better relationship going forward and you won't feel compelled to tell folks to put me on "ignore". I am a very reasonable person if you get to know me.

I agree with you, I also believe the climate is changing as it has for millions of years and it will continue in the future. That is one of the most certain factors regarding life on earth. I also believe that other factors are at play in low snow totals for much of the last 10 years. Regarding 65 degree days in January or February? In Staunton, January 24 of 1967- 71 degrees, January 25 of 1967- 72 degrees, January 26 of 1967 -71 degrees, January 27 of 1967 - 70 degrees.

In support of your thoughts, NOAA says that the warming rate has doubled since 1981 but the pier reviewed data still says 2 F since 1880. The climate is always changing and has been for millions of years. Any speculation about the next 50 or 100 years is just that. But, a snow drought since 2016 in D.C. because of this? I don't believe NOAA would support that idea. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

Euro see's the STJ disturbance over Tenn. early Friday IMO, but the NS simply absorbs it with some enhanced snow showers over West Virginia on Friday.

I am happy that you finally admit that your message is speculation. You are good at what you say, but I am smart enough to see usually hidden speculation written all over it. NOAA which is one of the most respected authorities in the world says that our climate has warmed around 2 degrees F since 1880. Does anyone truly believe that magically a snow drought has occurred during the past 7 or 8 years because of this 2 F warming in the last 140 years? There are other factors at play that we don't know or understand. I have no doubt.

The GEM already says no though it is sniffing.

This could actually work! Finally hp up north while intensifying disturbance moves from Tenn. - N.C. Coast.

The upslope regions along the Allegheny Front are doing very well. Even above normal snowfall for the winter! Canaan Heights W.Va. reports 67 inches to date compared to a normal 54 thru Jan. 10.

.39" last night. 3.69" for Jan.

AMEN

The GFS has been awful before and wrong before. The 18z GFS still gives me close to 12z at around 5 inches Kuchera. But, it makes no difference!!!! 24 hours from now, it will likely be vastly different. How is it possible that so many who profess loyalty to this hobby don't seem to understand that.

LOL I am surprised that you are throwing in the towel because of the 12z NAM. LOL

I'm happy to hear your analysis . The GGEM was on steroids at 12z!

An ancient Chinese proverb says that "a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step" The Euro took a step today but the GFS also took a step. Which one is in the right direction?? The GEM believes it knows with its giant step!!

Looks better than Tuesday

Great to hear from you!! 10 years ago you were a prominent member of this board and your highly educated common sense touch was always very impressive to me. I miss those times. Please visit often and all the best to You and your family.

The CMC ens is OK. The GEM op is lacking blue over D.C./ Augusta

This morning it is basically GFS/ICON vs. ECM/GEM . What is your preference?

The blue shrinks on the 06 EPS

You better look again

We're on an 18z GFS high right now................. Where will we be at 6 am if Dr. No persists???

At 15z Tuesday the GFS places the LP inside of Hatteras. That is very important for inland areas! The EURO will cave at 00Z IMAO........................

GFS STANDS PAT..........................

At this point the deck is stacked against the Op. Euro. It is an outlier without a friend. The EPS, GFS and GGEM all say yes and it is Dr. NO If the 18z GFS stands pat, I believe the 00z Euro will come back into the fold. If the 18z GFS collapses , well....... better luck next time. Remember, the models are smarter than we are. Wouldn't it be nice if they gave a 3 paragraph reasoning explanation of every run?

It's been happening all last summer. That's why we're still in a moderate drought in the Valley. I'm not saying that! The U.S. Drought Monitor is...........................