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stormy

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  1. stormy
    The GFS is doing its normal run to run disco from Jan. 30 - Feb 5. Regarding a possible late winter pattern, the Euro Weeklies more or less paint a January thaw beginning early week and extending thru Feb 5. Could be mild and wet. A developing plus PNA encourages eastern troughiness and lower heights from Feb. 15 - March 5. If that verifies, late Feb. into March could be quite interesting. Experts, please tell me why this wouldn't work.
  2. stormy
    Only .70" snow in Augusta. The GFS, ECM, GEM and NAM were all wrong 24 hrs. ago about the southward suppression of the snow at nearly 2.00 inches for Augusta. The ICON was the closest to correct model at .90".
  3. stormy
    The Shenandoah is truly God's World! Just don't tell anyone!!!!!!
  4. stormy
    My Augusta 4 model blend with the 12z GEM, 18z GFS, ECM and NAM increases from 1.3" to 1.9". Kuchera increases from 1.7 to 2.4" 18z NAM 12 k spiked from 1.2 to 2.5" and the 3k Nest jumped from 1.1 to 2.8" . NWS says WWA with 1-2, how about 1-3????
  5. stormy
    I did not include the ICON in the blend.
  6. stormy
    Out here in Augusta County my 4 model blend has increased from .5" last night to 1.3" with the 12z runs. 1.7" Kuchera. A definite shift south on the GFS, ECM, GEM, NAM and ICON.
  7. stormy
    One piece of Trivia that some may be interested in. Knoxville, Tenn. received 9.5 inches of snow Tuesday. According to the NWS, their average annual snowfall is 4.6 inches. Doubled that in one storm!!
  8. stormy
    Historically, Nino winters are not wet, wall to wall. We have been wet for 60 days. This is likely a time-out. I predict a wild and woolly period from Feb 1 - March 25. This would mimic 1958 which psu refers to. Mid Feb. thru Mid March of 1958 was historically brutal, breaking many snowfall records across Virginia/Maryland. We may do it again....
  9. stormy
    What more could anyone say. My blend has dropped from 2.0 to .5 in 24 hrs.. Here comes the drought!
  10. stormy
    My 4 model blend for Augusta dropped from 2.0 to 1.4 overnight.
  11. stormy
    Overnight low of +3 at 12:30. 8 at 7:30 with an 11 mph wind.
  12. stormy
    My 4 model blend is up to 2.00" for late Thursday night/Friday for Augusta County.
  13. stormy
    Be careful
  14. stormy
    Total of 4.25". I'm happy because my prediction in my newsletter Monday morning was 3 - 6". The models did quite well 30 hrs. pre-event at 9 pm Sunday, ranging from 3.0" ECM, 4.0" GFS to 4.7 GEM The winner Monday 6 am was the GFS at 4.2 10:1.
  15. stormy
    As psu said yesterday, do you want the truth or do you want bs. It's outa here by 2 am.
  16. stormy
    2- 4 inches tapering off after midnight. The earlier guidance has been sustained by the 18z GFS.
  17. stormy
    GFS beefs up Thursday night/Friday threat. Also GEM, especially for psu
  18. stormy
    Saved by the GFS!! The best snow looks to be 6 - midnight. Bring it on!
  19. stormy
    To drop a .10 is only noise, but to drop .25"? Yea, I know its only the NAM but I certainly hope the GFS and GEM don't follow.
  20. stormy
    The 12z NAM drops qp from D.C. sw the Staunton. Snowfall also drops accordingly an inch or two. Hopefully the 12z GFS does not follow .
  21. stormy
    About a half inch and 24 degrees with flurries. Roads are white.
  22. stormy
    I missed the 18z GFS 6 inch line by about 5 miles. My GFS,ECM,GEM,NAM blend is 4.5 inches. I can handle that light fluffy amount with my blade without getting the blower out. Last winter I put the blade and chains on the tractor and took them off in early April without ever using.
  23. stormy
    I understand. I was looking at the 10:1 total for Augusta from 12z at only 1.8. This is well under the GFS at 3.1 and GEM at 4.7.
  24. stormy
    OK , I'll follow your advice and look forward to the 18z GFS for comparison The ECM is really conservative compared to the others. Are the better physics telling?
  25. stormy
    sure
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