stormy

That's usually about once every 3 or 4 years and mostly in December.

I don't believe "we go past the first week of March" but we could be in the last week of February to first week of March before significant pay-dirt.

I Love those classic cars buried in snow during early March of 1960............................................. https://winstonsalemtimetraveler.com/2020/03/18/wayback-wednesday-the-snowy-march-1960-wednesdays/

Thanks!! I was just ready to try again with the link.

A lot of high anticipation is quite obvious this afternoon. Will mid February to mid March thrill snow lovers in the tristate region or will it end in disappointment???? We cannot know at this time. Ask me around April 1. Psu has often referred to 1958 Feb/March. The advertised possibilities are now reminding me of 1960. During mid Feb - mid March of 1960, brutal cold and repetitive snowstorms nearly paralyzed the western Carolina's and Virginia. While your dreaming about the possibilities, read the details of 1960 from Laurence Lee of NOAA: file:///C:/Users/James/Downloads/Review_Feb-Mar_1960(1).pdf

I'm with you man!! We all have regrets looking back over our lives.

You just haven't lived quite long enough!

Ice is trending in your direction. Perhaps a half inch of ice in southwest Va.

If the GFS 24 hr. trend continues the 12z run will have precipitation up into central Virginia. Surface and 850 temps. would be borderline.

Thanks Bob for your usual bundle of wisdom.

Honestly, I had this feeling 24 hrs. ago. after I looked at the latest Weeklies. I tracked the trajectory of the lowest heights and got an uneasy feeling. I still have high hopes but not as confident as 5 days ago.

You say that you ignore me because I don't make contributions. A lot of posters don't really make contributions. Do you believe that making blatantly incorrect posts is making a contribution?? You said the 18z NAM " was " better this run". Considering the significant down grade on WB I find it unlikely that Pivotol was better unless you want less snow!! Anyone can make a mistake, I believe you made one and don't have the courage to admit it. All you can do is attack others. That is very disappointing.

You say the NAM was "better this run" What am I missing?

This potential will affect areas along and west of the Blue Ridge, focusing on the central and southern Valley and western highlands. Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a 60% likelihood of snow showers after midnight. Lows of 31 - 33 Wednesday: Early snow showers tapering off, remaining mostly cloudy with highs of 35 - 40. Accumulations of a dusting to 1 inch below 2000 ft. elevation. Accumulations of 1 -3 inches, 2500 - 4500 ft. elevation.

Good Luck Cape! The 18z GFS says southern suppression but there is a plenty of time!

Which one of the 5 in the Atlantic on that map are you speaking of??

I'll take p 22

The Euro just won't give up on 2-5 !!!!!!! 7 inches at Norfolk .......... On to 00z.

This is beyond 6z. The Euro is interested.

The 12z GFS and now on board GEM gives Augusta 1.5 - 3.0 inches from this system at 96 - 120 Upstairs temps. look good but likely an elevation event unless we chill a few degrees.

That's a miss to the south

Things are looking a lot better, but parts of the Valley are still abnormally dry. My water table is still 10.68 ft. below normal according to the USGS.

DT's PA Pattern died with the issuance of the 00z GFS.

This was my post late yesterday after being surprised by the 18z GFS op for a few minutes. I then realized with these words that the 18z was likely trash that would not stand the test of time. I didn't call it trash at the time for obvious reasons considering the euphoria. 240+ hours is almost always fantasy land for the GFS op. The EPS still looks fine for Feb. 12 - March 12.