stormy

GFS loses interest as the source of cold air erodes to the east instead of southwest :

Chris 78 posted a possibility earlier today that I agreed with and posted about. Guess What?? The 18z GFS is more bullish!....................................................................

That 1040 over Michigan would be ok with a 977 over Norfolk

I agree, If this verifies as presented, reposition that 1029 HP sw to Ontario as 1036 and things could work out.

It's a given with the pattern I posted about earlier

I am predicting a pattern reversal with colder than normal temperatures and wetter than normal from March 15 - April 15. This would almost certainly create accumulating snow threats for western areas with elevation. A persistent trough along the east coast should create these conditions.

Until next year or the year after.

Good News!! We have returned to near normal. It bottomed out at 91.34 ft. on November 21, now up to 71.16 ft..

How close to the little pond to the right of the trail was this?

Low of 18 this morning. 2" snow yesterday afternoon at Wintergreen.

32 degrees with light snow at 5:35. A heavy dusting with 1 - 3 inches in elevations above 2500 ft with traffic problems.

Moderate snow and 34 degrees at 4:45. Talked to a friend 20 miles northwest who reports .50" - 1.00".

The 06z NAM 3k gave some 3500 elevations 15 miles to my south up to 6 inches. It has backed way off at 12z and now puts the best snow a little north of me. The 12z GFS dropped from 3" to 1". Just a little conversational snow would be nice. March has historically dumped some heavy snow on my area. I have high hopes!

Swift Run Gap on Rt 33 a few miles east of Elkton at the Skyline Drive is about 2400 ft.. North on the Skyline Drive would quickly put you up to 3000 ft. elevations. Good luck and have fun!

Weak low pressure over southern Ohio will move southeast across west/central Va. this afternoon and evening. NAM/GFS/ECM and GEM all give accumulating snow across portions of Augusta late afternoon and evening. Surface temps. below 2000 ft. will be marginal though column temps. look fine. Accumulation expectations range from 2 - 6 inches. This will be an elevation event for accumulations. 2000- 4000' 2 - 6 inches, 1000 - 2000 ft. a dusting - 1 inch.

Strong Miller A development March 3 gives Augusta County 4 inches of rain!

18z GFS drops 5 inches of snow 25 miles to my northwest late tomorrow. 18z NAM gives 2-3 inches.

Thanks Cape! My thoughts recently are that we stay warmer than normal thru about March 10 and colder than normal the last 20 days of March with snow threats based on CFSv2 and weeklies. Certainly, inland western areas will be more favored for snow. My snow season doesn't end until April 10. 4000 ft. within 20 miles of me doesn't end until May.

That is a hell of a good question!

Rain with the incoming system focuses north of I-70.................................. Not a good trend.........

Mother Nature always balances. Syracuse has only had 31% of climo, DC has had 84%, I have had 29%. I am happy, that is 28.6 % more than last year. Rejoice and be happy with your blessings.

The immediate DC region is closer to normal snowfall this winter than the great majority on the east coast according to NOAA. DCA 8.5 received, average ann.total 13.7 = 60%, Pittsburgh 13 received, average total 42 31%, Philadelphia 10 received 19 average 53%, Staunton 7 received 24 average 29%. This makes some people happy and some unhappy. There has been a gradual downhill slide in D.C. snowfall for 140 years according to this data, but look at the wildly fluctuating seasons with the recording breaking season not 100 but only 14 years ago. We should be getting close to another big year.

17.5 degrees at 7 am. That's 9 degrees colder than normal.

Bob, Thank You!! I always enjoy reading your down to earth wisdom. I only received .25 inch of snow but that is fine because I have about 7 weeks to go. My greatest prayer in November was to have a wet winter to rebuild the water table. That has happened. According to NOAA , many in the DC area are now around 100% of normal snowfall to date. DC has been very lucky this winter!! As you said recently, Mother Nature really has not wanted to snow this winter along the east coast. Just look at these snowfall percentages of normal for this winter: Roanoke 40%, Richmond 11%, Blacksburg 21%, Pittsburgh 38%, Cleveland 38%, Scranton 61%, Concord N.H. 70%, Buffalo NY 76%, Caribou Maine 75%.

Be patient, it will happen.