Brian5671

just 15 short days away!

Judah Cohen and Amy Butler on twitter have been talking about this much of the winter and how the lack of disruption was going to lead to mild conditions over the CONUS. This coupled with other unfavorable events pretty much sealed our fate. We'll have to hope for a lucky SECS or something but by and large it's over.

The general public (around me at least) had the idea that this was going to be a brutal winter. I heard a few people say it-based on what? Likely click bait twitter and internet posts on facebook and other social media. There was little to support for a "severe" or "brutal" winter.....

Amongst many factors, the warm water on the NW shore of Australia killed this year. Makes the MJO want to stay in the warm phases. Couple that with the super positive AO, +EPO and -NAO and we're toast.

doesn't really matter what it shows, the teleconnections do not support anything of significance

Euro's got 50's next week-we all know how these warmups over perform.

some day they'll be back, but we're due for a string of ratters after the prolific snows of this century...

meh...nothing heavy so it's rain or white rain

truly cold winters have been few and far between over the last 20 years ( 03-04, 2nd half of '07, 13-14, 14,15 to name a few cold ones) even 09-10 was not all that cold. We lucked out with a bunch of warm/snowy winters, which has in the last 3 years gone to generally warm/wet so folks are now freaking out. Twitter was the worst thing that could happen to weather since it gave the yearly cold/snowy outlook crew a place to spout their snake oil. No one pays attention to a forecast that shows above normal temps and well below normal snow.....

I was there last week! (Came back Sunday) That might be all the snow I see this year. (the continental divide tends to be the line b/w big snow and not much snow.) Those valleys along I70 never see any sun so the snow sticks around

AO is forecast to go to +4 or even +5. Just not looking likely at all IMO. The hallmark of a bad winter is the "good pattern" is always pushed down the road

you know it's bad when a snow shower is something to get excited about. worst winter ever....

A fair amount of winter forecasts noted that lack of ATL blocking would be an issue

and the warmup's are usually well over model guidance so I'd agree.

Hopefully it's sunny-the overcast 45 degree days are the worst...

record warmth?

11/12 redux is pretty much what we're getting. Zero cold air, not a single telleconnection in our favor, a couple weak cutters, yawn yawn yawn.

wow, you're throwing in the towel? You can tell it's bad. Real bad.

I turned out the lights 2 weeks ago and not looking back, this one is toast....

He's been god-awful the past 3 winters.

Too much to fix in the short to medium term. Let's hope we can get a lucky storm or two. (and also hope the pattern doesn't change around 4/1)

yeah last 2 days have been awful-cloudy and 40...stale used up airmass

Bet it will be tough to change this pattern as well....if so, expect a blowtorch in Feb just like Jan

I think we could see a string of clunkers coming up especially with the long term +NAO tendency right now

The kiss of death for winter elsewhere in North America-Alaskan Cold.