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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    Very little Atlantic Blocking back then. Similar to what we've seen the past couple of years....so it's cold, warmup rain back to cold...need the block to lock in the cold air and force the storm track south
  2. Brian5671
    I've seen snow at 50 too--dewpoint had to have been really low for that.
  3. Brian5671
    you always just take the snowiest models and say "pattern looks great" Look at all the factors-pros and cons and make realistc posts, then you won't be called a weenie...LOL we have not had a good pattern for a consistent snowy pattern for a couple of years now. Cold is great, but if the storms come in b/w the cold shots, it's wasted cold...
  4. Brian5671
    check out Bluewave's post....it likely is, at least for a time.
  5. Brian5671
    Last night only. Sunday dropped about an inch. Yeah usually BDR measures low. Surprised to see a 2 spot there.
  6. Brian5671
    About an inch and half here. Big bust all around-models really failed on this one. Oh well, take what we can get, the season is young.
  7. Brian5671
    welcome! Yes-December snows tend to bode well for winter as a whole.
  8. Brian5671
    or if we had heavy rates...once it was apparant we would not see heavy snow, any day time accumulations were done. We'll get a coating to an inch or two with the back end, but that'll be all she wrote. Terrible model performance overall.
  9. Brian5671
    Good explanation of what went wrong today. I had a feeling we were in trouble around noon when the precip field never consolidated.....
  10. Brian5671
    a couple of periods of light white rain today-temps too warm and the heavy precip never materialized-might get an inch or so this evening as the back end swings through. down to 32
  11. Brian5671
    snowmaps in general are worthless
  12. Brian5671
    winds picking up here big time
  13. Brian5671
    Hit it on the head-agree if there was ever anything that came down to a now cast this is it....
  14. Brian5671
    that had a colder airmass but the evolution was a 2 parter like this one
  15. Brian5671
    snowmaps this far out (4-5 days) are generally worthless
  16. Brian5671
    without a cold airmass in play literally everything would have to go right for this to work out for most here....need a 12/25/02 type outcome....
  17. Brian5671
    Hard for us here to understand but I get it if one is not interested in it....
  18. Brian5671
    overnight models have shifted towards an interior event for Sunday night and Monday. Still time-probably won't be sorted out until later Friday or Saturday.
  19. Brian5671
    model with the best verification score? The Euro and EPS. I'd go with that generally speaking-people throw out 144 hr CMC and GFS solutions like they're gospel since they show snow
  20. Brian5671
    the euro shows an inland solution which makes alot more sense given the time of year
  21. Brian5671
    I think worst case the balloons run close to the ground.
  22. Brian5671
    Yep and I remember the MJO kept correcting to 4-5-6 which is horrible in the winter. Hopefully we can see some 7-8-1 this year
  23. Brian5671
    yeah-they were worthless last winter...but just saw elsewhere that they are cold for the mid to late December time frame-take it for what it's worth-they're a tool, nothing more
  24. Brian5671
    Today's? I have not.
  25. Brian5671
    AO going +, NAO+, -PNA Good luck with anything sustained with that
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