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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    we're 2.5 days out-today's model trends are certainly a big disappointment. If we miss this week and early next week, it's possible we go virtually snowless for Jan unless the very end of January delivers. The 80's are back!
  2. Brian5671
    it's amazing how warm water north of a continent thousands of miles away can wreck our winter....oh well, going to enjoy the warmth, if it's not going to snow, give me 60 degrees
  3. Brian5671
    NAM is ugly-has very little precip and zero snow
  4. Brian5671
    even in crappy winters like 97-98 we get a freak snowstorm that ruins the record-I think that year may have been close to 0 before the 3/22/98 storm dropped 4-6 inches to ruin it.
  5. Brian5671
    Euro and UKMET look great for a few inches for all. Would be great to get something before the flip to warm.
  6. Brian5671
    I meant after this initial passage into 4/5...so 4/5 by 1/10, then collapse into COD and then back to 4/5 as we move forward. (as Allsnow notes-if that happens, we likely have a clunker on our hands)
  7. Brian5671
    I'm in that boat too-if it's going to be 45 and rain might as well root for 60 and sun....lower heating bills, more outdoor activities etc.
  8. Brian5671
    JB note the MJO, after going into the COD may emerge back into 4-5 again at some point. If that happens we're on life support
  9. Brian5671
    gaining sun light--sunset is now 10 minutes later here than the earliest one in mid Dec. Sun angle will soon become an issue (LOL)
  10. Brian5671
    nope but snowcover gets harder and harder to maintain as we head through Feb and beyond. That's why winter '10-11 was special-the goods came during prime low sun angle and coldest temps. Minimal melting
  11. Brian5671
    I'd tend to agree. But a big winter with snowcover is starting to look like it's going down the tubes quick....
  12. Brian5671
    just 30 short days away....
  13. Brian5671
    remember January 2006? That was a crazy warm snowless month. I think it could be like that barring some dramatic turnaround late
  14. Brian5671
    and these winter time ridges in recent years tend to over perform on warmth. I'm thinking we see some big time positive departures by 1/15-1/20
  15. Brian5671
    nice cell on radar out there
  16. Brian5671
    why would the amplitude help in 3/4 with the blizzard?
  17. Brian5671
    No one is canceling winter-the pattern is bad for several weeks. Beyond that who knows. But wasting January really sucks.
  18. Brian5671
    I honestly think the use of analogs from 50-75 years ago is less effective with different base states of oceans/atmosphere. His LR forecasts rely heavily on those analogs
  19. Brian5671
    Last year had little to no snow, how is this year different? Same problem, poor MJO plus a lousy PAC, same result-rainy and average to mild with some cold thrown in but as soon as storm comes it's an inland or cutter track.
  20. Brian5671
    Fair point-my point was more that he's always barking cold/snow so when he's not you know it's REAL bad
  21. Brian5671
    the NAO will have more of an influence late plus we have the warm NW ATL waters which often help us late as well- so maybe we can get some big snow events late like we have the past few years....
  22. Brian5671
    JB is beginning to hedge too...when that happens you know it's bad....
  23. Brian5671
    wow, when you say that, you know it's bad. I see little to get excited about-a couple of small window of opportunity, but next few weeks looks bad-MJO heading to a strong 4/5 just like last year.
  24. Brian5671
    I think we can get a storm or two, but it's going to be difficult to lock in any long term cold/snowy pattern based on some of the indices right now....
  25. Brian5671
    Especially 2015 that’s once in a lifetime type stuff
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