Brian5671

Weeklies have been horrid last 2 years, so I would toss them even if it showed a 95-96 pattern. Last year it showed that every run for the LR and it never came.

I would think we could see a crazy storm (liquid or frozen) somewhere with this???

actually feels like January with a low of 19 here. Upton going for 62 here Sunday!

We could see a rare January thunderstorm this weekend, we'll have to settle for that, but agree, very boring pattern going back to mid-December or so.

Gee maybe people have to work

A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night.

Saw an article that great lakes ice cover trails even last year...LOL. Stores have stocks of ice melt, snowblowers, sleds that are just sitting there. On the bright side Jan heating bills will be lower especially those with Nat Gas

white rain here, 33

Polar vortex-strong Atlantic blocking-nowhere to be found Pacific blocking-neutral to slight PNA-negative MJO-warm phases - model runs are only part of the package-if they are getting something noted above wrong the error only gets worse as one heads further out... what I see above is not exactly what I want to see for a prolonged wintry stretch (not just temps, but snow/ice) in our area

I'll give an example-several days ago models had an ice storm for Cleveland this weekend. Now they have thunderstorms and record warmth this weekend. SE ridge way under modeled so everything will end up further N and W and thus warmer for many

hey if we just went by the models we would not need meterologists to intepret them....hey you do remember last year right-that magic pattern was 10-12 days out the whole season...how did that work out?

you have to look at more than the models. Surely you know that by now. They're a tool. Part of a package. Just b/c a day 10 prog says x or y, that's certainly not always the end result.

and a strong PV to boot. Not exactly the stuff of big winters around here...Great pattern for the Rocky Mt Ski resorts Going to need a monster -EPO to overcome the other garbage

same sensible weather as last winter-cutters and inland runners....

it remains 11 days away...how good has guidance been 11-15 days? I'd like to see this move up to day 6-8

PV getting stronger-never good.

the main argument there is whether the models are rushing the pattern change-we've seen before where it ends up being later. We're still 10 days away, if this gets to day 7 I'm more inclined to jump on board

yeah I don't get that either. Pattern's been warm for 2 years so that makes you a "warmnista"

I'll be in Breck in 2 weeks-banner year out there with the Pac Jet and -PNA

you're not? I've seen you post there this year unless I'm mistaken

it's possible that the SE ridge could be weakened enough to get a nice battlezone going b/w the ridge and the colder air to the north-put us on the right side of the gradient and we'll be in business...but need the ridge to be weakened a fair amount or we see what we're getting this weekend-60's and rain while NNE gets snow and ice.

never said nothing changes til 2/15, I did opine that based on the stuck pattern we're in, I'm skeptical of change. This does not mean I'm "rooting for warmth". I love a good cold/snowy pattern just like anyone else but I'd like to see it in the nearer range before jumping on board. Last year was a great example-models (and you for that matter) kept showing a great pattern that never materialized. While winter may or may not be over, just because models are "seeing" something does not mean it's coming. Lessons learned from last year.... Not sure why you get so angry at anyone who doesn't push a cold/snowy agenda....it's kind of odd really. It's a discussion board, respect others opinions even if you don't agree with them.

anything past day 10 or 12 is subject to big changes....especially this year with models struggling so much-maybe due to the fast Pac Jet, but this year/last year seem especially bad

Never said we we going to loop back into 6, speculated that we COULD. (and yes, we still could) Big difference. It's a discussion, no need to get defensive when someone brings up a differing point of view that's not cold/snowy. back on 12/25 no model showed anything near what's occurring with the MJO going strong into 4/5. hence my post that the LR is a crapshoot.

LR is indeed a crapshoot of sorts especially with some horrid model outputs.