Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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66 here-great day
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GEFS shows most of the big cold well west of us like the Euro Ensembles
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can't make it up....however looking at the Euro ensembles most of the cold air ends up in the moutain west/midwest-we end up a few degrees below normal but not the -10 that you're seeing out that way
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Let's see if modeling holds onto the cold-typically this winter/spring it has moderated significantly as it gets closer in time.
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Too late in the year-would just be a cold rain for most. Also have to question how cold it gets, there's been very little cold anywhere since late December
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Great day out there today, already 57 here
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There's no really cool air anywhere....we're still above normal even with the blocking.
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Even with a -NAO we're plus 4....LOL
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Still clear down this way but winds have been picking up all day -
gloomy? It's clear out.
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and a La Nina-could be very active.
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Seems like there is less cold this year though-I'm wondering if I've had my last freeze already. SST's in the western ATL are well above normal so even with the onshore flow it likely won't be as bad as last year which had a cold pool off the NE coast....
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winds have been increasing here all morning-can also see the cloud deck off to the east slowing moving westward
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I've learned that if it doesn't come by late January it's generally not coming....you have a couple lucky outliers but for the most part we're toast if the pattern change doesn't arrive by then
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some including him using analogs from colder times, oceans were colder etc. What worked in the winter of 60-61 is not applicable for today's baseline....
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yep, it was time to mail it in when that happened. Models never showed anything but warmth and rain from that point on....
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Would be nice if they would shorten the season going forward but it won't happen. 162 games is crazy
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April 2020 temperature forecast contest
Brian5671 replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA +4 NYC +3.5 BOS +2.5 ORD +3 ATL+ 5 IAH +4 DEN+1 PHX+1 SEA +1.5 -
Given that we saw 70's in January, Jan/Feb/Mar were +5 or better-nothing would shock me. Just no cold air anywhere here since December.
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That may come shortly-once this NAO block breaks down there's alot of heat from TX to GA/FL just waiting to come northeast
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Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic Oceans are warmer than average. Hard to fight that off too
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trending less negative...now averaging 1 to 1.5 SD below normal which is not a strong -NAO
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another warm bust. forecast high here 60, currently 64
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That's only b/c the PV is breaking up-we had zero chance of a -AO or -NAO this winter with the uber strong PV
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I think that could be the big difference from last year to this year along with the warm water off the coast (vs the cold water of last year) Of course we could get caught in a squeeze play b/w the ridge and the -NAO and end up with a rainy pattern.
