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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    upton has us near 50 on Thursday....
  2. Brian5671
    yep know when to hold em and when to throw them. When models backed off the late Jan pattern change about a week out, that's when I threw in the towel personally.
  3. Brian5671
    it's the CFS so take it for what's it worth....(or any model 2 months out)
  4. Brian5671
    Borrowed from JB's post this AM-but the CFS for April-here comes winter! -
  5. Brian5671
    No cold high to the north is the other issue here
  6. Brian5671
    The 80's had some incredible cold shots. Alot of cold with bare ground back then as it was hard to get anything to line up with a storm (+NAO/AO pattern then) We've seen none of that the past 2 years. I did tell my kids the same thing this AM when they asked why it hasn't snowed much...I said, "welcome to my childhood"!
  7. Brian5671
    nothing to support a snowstorm-every telly remains unfavorable.
  8. Brian5671
    if the seasonal trend is any indicator-those projected temps will warm as we get closer
  9. Brian5671
    same ol pattern-any cold shot either doesn't happen or moderates as it gets closer in time. GFS/GEFS terrible with the LR cold bias. Best to stick with Euro/EPS
  10. Brian5671
    not a bad look-if (big if) we can get on the right side of the gradient b/w the SE ridge and the cold air, the storm track could work for us-models show the corridor from TX to NE to be wetter than normal next few weeks.
  11. Brian5671
    the third reason is the AO/NAO-I wonder if either the MJO or the PV influenced that at all?
  12. Brian5671
    that warm water N of Australia was a warning shot that our winter was going to have issues (warm water would point to the MJO wanting to go back to 5/6 which it has now done twice)
  13. Brian5671
    When I see a cold pattern, I'll go cold, the last 3 years have been an inferno...deal with it. Just because the EPS has a solution you don't like is not reason to call it a terrible model when it has the highest verification score....had the model showed an ice age I'm sure you'd be saying it's great.
  14. Brian5671
    How many times has it snowed this winter?....yeah, I'll go with more futility. EPS is the highest verifying model to answer your question. Ignore it at your own risk
  15. Brian5671
    missing that blocking we used to get
  16. Brian5671
    Pattern is so hostile-too much to fix...even if the pattern became 50% better, it might not help....confidence growing that we just torch right into March
  17. Brian5671
    fitting for this winter
  18. Brian5671
    let me guess a cutter?
  19. Brian5671
    46 here no wind yet
  20. Brian5671
    reminds me of Feb '16 when we had 2-3 events in late Feb like this. No blocking then as well, so everything cut to the west of us putting us in the warm/severe sector
  21. Brian5671
    We have a hard time getting severe weather in July....maybe Feb is the month for severe!
  22. Brian5671
    heavy squalls here as the warm front approaches....
  23. Brian5671
    11-12 was bone dry-40's every day with barely even a rain event and then the super torch in March with a few days in the 70's to near 80. This year is basically a wetter version of that year with the same well above normal temps
  24. Brian5671
    Also-no snow in coastal locations hurts them. The "backyard snow effect" makes people want to ski/board when they see snow in their backyard-not much of that this year around here.
  25. Brian5671
    decent model trends today with next weekend looking colder and now the weeklies-still fantasy until we're within 5 days IMO
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