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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    reminds of 01-02 and 11-12, we've moved into a dry torch regime-no end in sight really. Time to wrap it up, let's go torch!
  2. Brian5671
    yep, has the feel of some famous clunkers...let's just torch 2002, 2012 style....
  3. Brian5671
    was down to 22 here and 18 the night before-at least that will keep trees dormant and bugs at bay. Has a feel of Feb 2002 and Feb 2012-days of blue skies and well above normal temps-hopefully the cloudy damp pattern is behind us. That's when you tend to see all the red flag warnings-lots of dry brush, winds and very low humidity.
  4. Brian5671
    Some people never learn....
  5. Brian5671
    really? IP ban?
  6. Brian5671
    actually after the models bailed on the late January pattern change, they just showed cutters and torches from that point on--yep it was so bad we could not even get the fantasy pattern change to show up...
  7. Brian5671
    yep it came at the end of a relatively snowless winter-the day it started it was in the mid 50's in NYC....
  8. Brian5671
    11 inches here which seems high given how bad it's been. 2 events in December for a few inches, the icestorm and then the 01-02, 11-12 style January 20th special with 4 inches...since that date a snow squall that melted on contact has been it....just pathetic. Lowest temp is something like 15 as well.
  9. Brian5671
    my days of knocking back 6 of anything are over....
  10. Brian5671
    Relax. Better odds of an inch of snow this winter....
  11. Brian5671
    Cat 5 into Long Island...calling it now. Also of note, some models develop a strong Nina later in the summer/fall-that would favor Atlantic activity.
  12. Brian5671
    let's see ++++AO, +NAO, SE ridge, no cold air, shall I go on...LOL
  13. Brian5671
    The only thing I'll say is that is within the window we have and sometimes we get a nice storm before a pattern flip to warmer.
  14. Brian5671
    LOL. So Sad, I've barely looked at any models in the last month-it's the same result every time...
  15. Brian5671
    ENDLESS TORCH
  16. Brian5671
    areas north of NYC did ok on the 1/18 event-locally here I was all snow despite the storm being a cutter. Having a great arctic airmass in place helped.
  17. Brian5671
    I'll give him a little credit this year-he bailed early and actually said that the warmth of the last 5 years needs to be respected. I suspect his forecast next winter will be a bit more humble.
  18. Brian5671
    LR forecasting is difficult at best. Look at the super strong PV this year plus the warm water north of Australia-both were late breaking events that helped cause us to be warm and snowless. Good luck seeing something like that more than a month out....
  19. Brian5671
    Yep, I'm skipping JB and all the Twitter cold/ice age stuff going forward....
  20. Brian5671
    more like a lakes cutter with rain to Canada-not even close for anyone
  21. Brian5671
    Tremendous. While it's not what we all wanted, it's literally spot on.
  22. Brian5671
    What's interesting here is the PV-could anyone have predicted its strength last fall? Wildcards like that can sink a forecast. On the flip side, 2010-11 was a strong Nina and many forecasts were not great-yet we had one of the snowiest 40 days in history due to some well timed blocking.
  23. Brian5671
    One model (can't remember which) is showing a strong Nina starting this fall-that would not be a good development.
  24. Brian5671
    what? Yesterday you said it was coming now it's not?
  25. Brian5671
    Past few summers have not been overly hot either. The warmth has been concentrated in the fall and winter.....
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