BuffaloWeather

UKIE and Euro are pretty bad with Lake effect. Probably the 2 worse.

It's been pretty bad here, not 1 LES event so far, only 8" on the year. Binghamton and central NY had 3-4 feet of snow. We've been the odd man out. Just hiked some peaks in the Adirondacks and 2-3 feet of snow up there as well. Looks to be meandering wind directions from W to SW from late Thurs into Sunday morning. Coldest airmass of season pours across the region on Christmas Day with synoptic snow giving way to moderate to heavy lake snow east of both Lakes. Travel likely to become an issue, mainly from southern suburbs of Buffalo to PA line and east of Lake Ontario. Heavy lake snows Christmas night east of both lakes. Cap 8-12k ft so rates >2" likely with DGZ fully in play. Thunder/lightning will also be possible (esp east of Lk Ont). Impressive lake snows will persist through Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday morning, while remainder of the region will experience occasional snow showers under cyclonic flow aloft and mid winter temps well below freezing.

Erie is much warmer than I thought

We take, nice 3 feet over my place. 4' near watertown. GEM

Potential for huge LES event off of Erie for this weekend. Still lots of details to iron out, but could be a big one. Getting a little excited.

Lake effect snow watches for Erie county tomorrow afternoon update if these runs continue.

HWO A strengthening storm over our region on Thursday could generate a soaking rain into Thursday evening. This rain combined with snow melt could result in minor flooding. Following a general accumulating snow Thursday night, significant lake effect snow will then be possible east or northeast of Lake Erie from Christmas Day through Saturday. While there is still some uncertainty in the track of the storm system, there is growing confidence that travel in at least parts of the region could be severely impacted by what could turn out to be a significant lake effect snow event. Any lake effect snow would be accompanied by gusty winds as well.

RGEM has a nice synoptic hit before the lake effect

The event starts late Thursday evening. It's not too far out. I agree though, lake effect we need to wait until 48 hours prior. Wednesday we should have a very good picture on it.

GFS low res 20" across south towns. GFS hi res

GEM at 1:10

Get your stuff packed its coming.

Nope, moving winds

GEM is huge LES hit. WSW flow.

12Z runs got me a little giddy.

GFS is pretty low res for LES but that setup would lead to feet of snow east of the lakes. This event is similar to 2010-2011 with the synoptic storm and LES to follow. The event began quickly and evolved from a departing major synoptic storm which drenched the region with 1 to 2 inches of rain early on Wed. Dec 1st. Temperatures started the day in the 50s but fell rapidly as the storm departed. Cold air wrapped in fast enough to change the rain to a period of synoptic snow during the morning...dropping 2 to 4 inches. Then a lake plume developed by early afternoon on a 260 flow and intensified by 3 pm or so as it rolled into the Buffalo Southtowns.

Icon would be a record les event for Buffalo.

Driving to long lake it seemed like a different world then WNY. It was full blown winter from near Syracuse all the way to Long lake. About a foot of snow on the ground and it snowed the entire way back yesterday with some decent rates. Every 1k feet of elevation added another 6-8" of snow.

Little event overnight

Only work 3 days this week. Has crazy potential, but it's not an ideal setup compared to some past events. Still a long ways out, will know more Weds/Thurs as high Res Models come into timeframe.

Analogs for Fri-Sun LES event. I'd favor a Westerly flow at this moment. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2020122100&map=thbCOOP72

It perplexed all the mets on the New England forum, they didn't understand it. The banding in Southern Vermont and NH they understood, but the Binghamton banding they couldn't figure out. Hopefully some good papers will be written on it. I've never seen strong LES rates in synoptic like that outside of right along the coast or higher elevations in upslope.

Coldest airmass of season pours across the region on Christmas Day with synoptic snow giving way to moderate to heavy lake snow east of both Lakes. Travel likely to become an issue, mainly from southern suburbs of Buffalo to PA line and east of Lake Ontario. Heavy lake snows Christmas night east of both lakes. Cap 8-12k ft so rates >2" likely with DGZ fully in play. Thunder/lightning will also be possible (esp east of Lk Ont). Impressive lake snows will persist through Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday morning, while remainder of the region will experience occasional snow showers under cyclonic flow aloft and mid winter temps well below freezing.

Euro with a beautiful SW flow, lacks a little moisture but would be a big time metro event

I'm back from the hardest hike of my life. 17 miles, -10 degree temps and 2-3 feet of snow at the summit. Took me 15 hours to complete, my hands were frozen, my toes were frozen, and I cant feel my legs but I did the Santorini ridge! 6 guys started the hike and only 3 finished the entire ridge. 24/46 peaks completed! Euro looks fantastic for LES, I'm still a little leary with the overall setup with dry air and wind direction being the biggest factors.