BuffaloWeather

High RES GFS

Simulated looks like WSW off erie and WNW off ontario, weird look. I'll take it for my spot.

Not sure if posted yet, updated FD from KBUF ...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Christmas through December 26... For Friday morning, there should be a brief transition from ending synoptic snow moving into Central NY and developing lake effect snow developing on a WSW flow over the lakes. The coldest aloft will still be upstream and poised to move overhead later Friday afternoon. So there may be a period Friday morning with a meager lake response before a full-blown lake response takes hold. As a result, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty to both the start time and placement of lake effect snow. East of Lake Erie...some models move the band well into the Northtowns while others place it toward Metro Buffalo Friday afternoon. Regardless, the coldest airmass should pass overhead Friday evening and mark the period for the heaviest and most intense lake effect snow, where 2"/hr and thundersnow will be a possibility into Friday night as the band settles a little to the south overnight. East of Lake Ontario...a similar transition period is expected, with widespread snow tapering off Friday morning...followed with a lake response Friday afternoon. The most intense period should be Friday night and well into Saturday. Similar to Lake Erie however, there`s still uncertainty placement at this point through Saturday. The best chance will probably be over/north of the Tug Hill Plateau. Then another shortwave trough will move across the St Lawrence valley and should push the band south over and eventually south of the Tug Hill Plateau. With concerns noted above, the watch will stand for now until there`s more confidence in timing and placement along with corresponding snow amounts.

NAM looks pretty good, the band is still going strong beyond 84 hours Last frame

What are your thoughts on snowfall totals? I still think 1-2' is expected by sunday afternoon across most of central/southern erie county. (including the synoptic)

Post these in the general discussion, this one is just for lake effect

I think this event got pushed back 6-10 hours on these midnight runs. Does the event now go well into Sunday?

I don't even care about my place. I was saying for a truly EPIC event, you want the GFS or RGEM track, not the NAM. NAM would get everyone involved but bands would be moving quite a bit. The big time totals is what I'm hoping for.

I guess you know more then me about LES.

But it lowers residence time substantially. Not the ideal track.

This is why we don't use the NAM LOL

Previous runs had band going much earlier, friday morning....that band is now in NE PA.

NAM not looking to great for synoptic or LES. Likely doesn't get the band north to Metro until really late Friday night. Definitely a step back from other model runs

This one forecasted the max over KBUF though. I think I had 18" in this one.

When GFS shows a band like this you know its serious.

Definitely possible Fri Night into Sat Am.

GFS is a little SE

Looks wintry across Jamestown this morning, they got a couple inches overnight.

I'm just talking in terms of snowfall distribution, not impact. This will not be as big as that. But I think all of Erie county have 1-2' by Sunday afternoon.

Looks like a pretty wide band that covers nearly all of Erie county. Similar to 1985 event IMO. That's my analog.

Lake Erie temps are pretty toasty

The WNW wind direction from near Huron and the SW/WSW from across WNY will likely develop some banding structures we've seen similar to the northern end of the band in Nov 2014. Convergent winds create additional lift.

The last frame of the RGEM is the strongest band of the run. 3" per hour rates in that thing easily. Textbook

Look at 850s to the west and well aligned flow, moisture starts to lack but it has everything else. Will likely be strong band into early Sunday

RGEM coming in hot. The winds become WSW and lock in nearly all day Saturday with 850s in the negative teens. Early call but going 1-2' for all of Erie county and 3' lollies somewhere in Central Erie County. The strong band likely last another 12-18 hours after the end of this run.