BuffaloWeather

Way too early to pinpoint exact locations need to wait until Weds at earliest.

Wolfie posting local news before the Buffalo peeps, I'm disappointed in you guys.

It works on my gaming PC that I built, but this thing is a beast. Doesn't work on anything else.

I know its been discussed already but my god that is the worst radar I have ever seen in my life. Did we go back to the 1970s with that thing....?????

Nice band north of Buffalo now, any snow out of that?

You can go about 5-10 miles north of any model with lake snow bands when lake temps are in the lower 40s still due to thermal troughing. I like where I sit and most of Erie county would have at least a foot of snow.

Yeah I know but figured it would lake effect snow watch, not winter storm watch unless those are retired? I thought they brought them back this year.

Should be some moving bands, but looks to lock in Buffalo into southtowns for quite awhile at end of loop https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

From OSU I looked casually the past few day but I thought Christmas morning into evening looked really nice for buf and the immediate Southtowns

Separate. I'll do 2 new threads. One for general and one for the LES event.

Will start a new thread for the lake effect tonight.

WSW in effect for 1-2'+ of snow My point and click. If anyone wants to chase a LES storm, this may be the one. Thursday Night Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Christmas Day Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Easy 1-2', Not often that is said.

Updated Forecast Discussion .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Christmas through December 26... The aforementioned system will started to rapidly wrap colder air into the area as the increasingly-curved upper jet structure advances northward through the area on Thursday night. This will rapidly drop 850 hPa temperatures from SW to NE across the area as it does so and change precipitation from rain to snow long before synoptic moisture peels away. This will result in a few inches of snow for almost the entire area before the deeper moisture associated with the system departs. As progressively colder air moves into the region with cyclonic flow entrenched in the area, flow in the 925-850 hPa layer turns southwest on Christmas Day on all guidance, including even the ECMWF at this point (just with a bit of a lag relative to the GFS/Canadian global). Model soundings suggest a deep unstable layer that fully bisects the dendritic growth layer and weak shear within the unstable moist layer. This should allow for good dominant banding to develop first down the length of Lake Erie then a few hours later down Lake Ontario. The persistence of the flow regime on the Canadian is particularly troubling, as the layer averaged flow in the 925-850 hPa layer suggests banding off of Lake Erie right into the Buffalo metro area from Friday right into Saturday for the majority of the time period. While this may be a worst case scenario, it`s also a plausible scenario, as the GFS has been suggesting this for several runs, and the ECMWF layer-averaged flow has taken on a southerly component that makes confidence on lake effect banding making it northward toward the Buffalo metro area very plausible. With the placement of the band in mind, it comes down to snow production efficiency. Bufkit soundings suggest equilibrium levels up toward 10-11 kft by Friday with a lake to 850 hPa delta T of roughly 20C, which combined with cyclonic flow a saturated dendritic layer should result in bands producing 2" per hour snowfall. Depending upon their residency in a particular spot, that could result in a foot or two of snow easily NE of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, however some shifting of the bands will result in a threat of 9" or more over a broad enough area with confidence commiserate for a winter storm watch for lake effect snow. Watches were thus issued for Thursday night into Saturday in both locations. Lighter lake snows will linger into Sunday and eventually fall apart as warm advection ahead of the next system to affect the area turns flow southerly and warms temperatures into the start of next week.

What are you thinking for totals off Erie and Ontario?

Here we go! Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Christmas Day Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

More then 9", what a weird number.

It shows it but they're not very accurate with it. They show overall trends not specifics.

UKIE and Euro are pretty bad with Lake effect. Probably the 2 worse.

It's been pretty bad here, not 1 LES event so far, only 8" on the year. Binghamton and central NY had 3-4 feet of snow. We've been the odd man out. Just hiked some peaks in the Adirondacks and 2-3 feet of snow up there as well. Looks to be meandering wind directions from W to SW from late Thurs into Sunday morning. Coldest airmass of season pours across the region on Christmas Day with synoptic snow giving way to moderate to heavy lake snow east of both Lakes. Travel likely to become an issue, mainly from southern suburbs of Buffalo to PA line and east of Lake Ontario. Heavy lake snows Christmas night east of both lakes. Cap 8-12k ft so rates >2" likely with DGZ fully in play. Thunder/lightning will also be possible (esp east of Lk Ont). Impressive lake snows will persist through Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday morning, while remainder of the region will experience occasional snow showers under cyclonic flow aloft and mid winter temps well below freezing.

Erie is much warmer than I thought

We take, nice 3 feet over my place. 4' near watertown. GEM

Potential for huge LES event off of Erie for this weekend. Still lots of details to iron out, but could be a big one. Getting a little excited.