BuffaloWeather

If I squint is that a sliver of 24-30" along the lakeshore?

I just want ya'll to remember I said 1-2' across most of Erie county when things were looking pretty grim a few days ago.

NWS Update: Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Friday Night Through Saturday Night off Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie...Friday night still appears to be the period for heaviest lake effect snow off of Lake Erie, as there will be plenty of lingering synoptic moisture to aid the lake response. DGZ will be saturated, which will produce large dendritic flakes. Fairly well aligned low level flow will become southwesterly, shifting the lake band northward through the night. This will shift the main focus from southern Erie and Wyoming counties during the first half of the night, north into central Erie (including Metro Buffalo and the Southtowns), southwestern Genesee and northwestern Wyoming counties for the second half of the night. Snowfall rates may reach up to 2"/hr at times in the heart of the band and there may be some thundersnow. Winds gusting to 35 MPH will also cause significant blowing and drifting snow. Saturday morning, the band will shift a bit further north, mainly impacting northern Erie and western Genesee Counties. This may possibly bring a burst of snow (several inches) to the Northtowns, while Metro Buffalo remains in the heart of the band. Saturday afternoon, synoptic moisture gets stripped away and inversion heights begin to drop. Band may produce a couple more inches before pushing south and weakening Saturday night as drier air starts to build in. Winter Storm and Lake Effect Snow Warnings remain in place through Saturday. Off Lake Ontario...now appears that there will be a pretty good lull in the action before lake effect activity gets cranking here. Thus the Winter Storm Watch start time has been pushed back by 18 hours and will now be in effect from 7 PM Friday night through 7 AM Sunday. That said, lake effect snow should get cranking Friday night east-northeast and northeast of Lake Ontario, mainly impacting Jefferson (metro Watertown) and northern Lewis counties, including the northern Tug. Saturday will likely see the heaviest lake snows for this event with up to 1-2"/hr possible at times, owed to additional synoptic moisture to work with and a saturated DGZ producing large dendritic flakes. Expect LES snowbands to remain across Jefferson/Lewis counties and the northern Tug Saturday morning, before shifting more to the east of the Lake across central/southern Jefferson, far northern Oswego and central Lewis counties Saturday afternoon and evening as winds become more westerly. Winds gusting 30-35 MPH will also cause significant blowing and drifting snow. Bands will will begin to weaken and shift south later Saturday night as drier air filters in and inversion heights come down. Headline will remain a Winter Storm Watch here as some uncertainty remains in the evolution and placement of the heaviest snow bands. Sunday morning there may be a quick spray of lighter lake effect snow showers from south to north off both lakes before completely shutting down by Sunday afternoon as a warmer, southerly flow ensues at the surface and aloft. Highs will be in the upper teens and 20s Saturday. It will be a bit warmer Sunday under a warm air advection regime ahead of the next system approaching from the west. Highs will mainly be in the low to mid 30s, with some upper 20s across the Tug Hill and western Dacks.

I have google nest cams installed in front and back of my house with 24/7 1080P live camera view if anyone is looking for a good stream.

Look at those wind gusts too, going to be blizzard like conditions at times.

Channel 4 in house just for synoptic

The best christmas gift Tonight Rain before 11pm, then snow and sleet between 11pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 28. West wind 10 to 14 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Christmas Day Snow before 8am, then snow showers likely between 8am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 29. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 8pm, then snow showers after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow showers, mainly before 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday A chance of snow showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%

The best christmas gift Tonight Rain before 11pm, then snow and sleet between 11pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 28. West wind 10 to 14 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Christmas Day Snow before 8am, then snow showers likely between 8am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 29. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 8pm, then snow showers after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow showers, mainly before 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday A chance of snow showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%

I remember that event, it was brutal to watch but didn't you catch up during the 2nd half with a 2" per band parked over your house overnight?

I'll be off all weekend so my setup will be identical to Deltas. I have the snowboard and yard stick and 2 separate depth sticks one on my deck away from everything and one in my yard. And we're starting with no depth so it should be easy. Have you tried the timelapse tool with nest cam? Is that feature only available with the $12 per month package, if so I'm about to upgrade.

Nest cam going to get some real action this weekend.

I still think it goes further north then expected. Lake temps are very warm, near record highs.

GFS gets the band into northtowns with very heavy rates

GFS with 2'

The jackpot looks to be right where I live currently Hamburg, NY. Lots of places to stay here. We are a large town with over 60k people. (lots of hotels) You can stay right near exit 57 on the I90 NYS thruway, which is about 1/2 from my house.

A nice 26" bomb near my house with the band still going strong

A nice 26" bomb near my place with the band still going strong.

Yeah sorry was just talking off of Erie.

I look to be right in the bullseye for the next event here. Calling for 18-24"

Pretty much KBUFs map

GFS

Eries Map

RGEM is huge hit. at 1:10 20" bullseye over my place. Kuch 26" Last frame still going strong

Sums up the NAM beyond 48 hours.

This is pretty much what KBUF is forecasting