BuffaloWeather

The last frame of the RGEM is the strongest band of the run. 3" per hour rates in that thing easily. Textbook

Look at 850s to the west and well aligned flow, moisture starts to lack but it has everything else. Will likely be strong band into early Sunday

RGEM coming in hot. The winds become WSW and lock in nearly all day Saturday with 850s in the negative teens. Early call but going 1-2' for all of Erie county and 3' lollies somewhere in Central Erie County. The strong band likely last another 12-18 hours after the end of this run.

Exactly I'm quite confused too, leaning towards non blockbuster event. Should be a good one though.

Big time run on GFS for you guys. 1-2' for northtowns. This is a northtown to southtown special. SW/WSW winds.

It's a decent track for far Western NY. It cuts up through Rochester.

GFS brings the band really far north too into Niagara county. If this band moves that much I like KBUFs map, we won't be seeing crazy totals with it moving so much.

It's a decent run for me, but not for everyone else.

Gives far Western NY 4-6" before the lake effect kicks in.

Cuts straight up.

Yep 2 MB weaker, definitely SE. The GEFS were all farther SE, should follow the trend.

I miss raving, ready for covid to be over.

Tom Niziol started a blog where he talks about all things winter, pretty interesting. Last topic was about ocean effect snow https://itsallweather.blogspot.com/2020/12/japans-epic-snows-december-14-17-2020.html?fbclid=IwAR1Ft1L8kDtUDyjBstJuuS_XqX77CPafjQYmrqmp2ukRYhW7I0tuXaM6hdU

RGEM would direct the LES band into the northtowns easily, even Niagara county

ICON is terrible but 2" of QPF in Erie county

GEFS mean

My point and click, we take. Thursday Night Rain before 8pm, then rain and snow between 8pm and 9pm, then snow after 9pm. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Christmas Day Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 11am. High near 24. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow between 10pm and 3am. Low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Snow before 1pm, then snow showers likely after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

GFS has is from 6Z friday to 12z Sunday in some form or fashion. Not just KBUF, but all of Erie county.

Thanks Josh, was wondering when this thread was coming. This year has been brutal but we look to have our first real LES event here in WNY. First call from KBUF.

RGEM pretty west too

Those are pedestrian totals from NWS for 2-3" per hour rates with a strong LES band in place for nearly 48 hours. Not to mention the synoptic snow. I don't think totals are going to be extreme as the band will be moving quite a bit.

But it's NAM outside 48 hours, we toss.

That's not necessarily true. The NAM shows it cutting north and LES into Ohio/NE PA.

I think that looks about right but I would raise totals quite a bit.