Powerball

Overall though, the trend is not good. On the whole, models have definitely increased the ice accumulations.

It seems the Hi-Res models are struggling with how the handle the effect (if any) of DFW's UHI on surface temps. They could be onto something, but we'll have to find out. That 12km NAM run is catastrophic. That would have to be amongst the worst ice storms in Dallas' history.

000 FXUS64 KFWD 021210 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 610 AM CST Wed Feb 2 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The cold front is moving into far Western North Texas at this hour and is outperforming guidance by coming in colder than previously thought. Freezing rain is currently being reported as far south as Fort Sill, OK. Expect the cold air to barrel south through the day. The forecast was adjusted to reflect this change by moving up the onset of winter precipitation. We now have sleet and freezing rain starting over Montague/Young/Jack Counties as early as 10-11 AM. The tail-end of the evening rush hour over the far NW of the Metroplex is now likely to be impacted by winter precip late this afternoon. The other result of the cooler temperatures is that less ice is forecast over Western North Texas. While there will be less ice, there will be more snow and have increased our high end snow forecast to range between 4-6 inches. We remain confident of a significant ice storm occurring tonight, although there may be more sleet than we previously thought due to the cooler temps. The remainder of the forecast discussion below still applies.

I would be careful with those models showing snow. They still show a warm layer aloft during those time frames, plus they tend to be too bullish with ratios. There's also some question of how quickly the better forcing will wane when the transition in p-types take place.

00z models really started to show what's bolded...

That said, I look forward to bumping your post 10 years from now when DFW overtakes Chicagoland in size.

To be fair, Columbus is bucking the trend of most Midwest metros (not named Indianapolis or Minneapolis) and is growing at a modest clip. But at the end of the day, it's still just a glorified college town that happens to also be a state capital and the home of Wendy's.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwnssl&pwplus=1

The NSSL is just plain ugly. Widespread 0.75"+ of ice, and that's right from the start (no rain), and then a good 1"+ in QPF of sleet on top of it (sleet is typically assumed to have a 3:1 ratio, so that translates into 3" of sleet). That would probably shut thing down until Saturday, when it finally melts.

NAM looks to be a bit further NW with the 2nd wave.

Someone earlier in this thread from (I think) Elgin reported snow was mixing in. EDIT: As the poster confirmed below, it was actually Galesburg.

ILC143-020442- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Civil Danger Warning IL Peoria County Relayed by National Weather Service Lincoln IL 442 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...Civil Danger Warning... The following message is transmitted at the request of Peoria County. ...This message is being issued for residents of the City of Peoria. A city-wide parking ban is in effect from 6pm February 1st through 6pm February 3. Residents must move their vehicles from all City streets to allow for plows and emergency vehicles. Alternative parking locations include the south parking lot of Northwoods Mall... 2200 West War Memorial Drive... Twin Towers Parking Garage... 123 South West Jefferson St... Niagara Parking Garage... 109 West Adams Street... and the Jefferson Parking Garage... 236 South West Jefferson Street. Parking is free in these locations until 8 am on Saturday February 5. Do not park in the alleys. Any cars left on the streets are subject to towing and tickets. During this snow event... residents are asked to stay home for their safety and to let snowplow drivers and emergency vehicles work. REPEAT- A City-Wide parking ban is in effect for the City of Peoria starting at 6pm this evening. For more information... call 494 CARE Monday-Friday from 8 to 6 and Saturday from 9 to 1... $$

21z RAP was slightly NW/stronger with the 2nd wave.

18z GFS showed an increase in the ice amounts for everywhere except Collin County (where it's about the same).

Dorsn't look like much changed on the 18z GFS with the 2nd wave.

@michsnowfreak It's definitely a solid storm for sure. But it's not the worth the travel expense for me. I was mainly in it for the historical possibility. Intuitively, I knew it was a long shot, but the fact that the GFS was pretty consistent for a while had me intrigued.

I'm surprised no one has speculated (another oldie for goodie) whether it will be hard for the snow to accumulate at first because of the wet ground.

Unless that 12z GFS run from 1/29 miraculously comes back, I'm good. I already have my hotel room booked in case of a power outage here with the ice storm.

Ah, I see. I would be flying out of DFW (can choose either American or Delta), so it wouldn't be a problem for me.

There's still the red eye, if things suddenly trend to the unlikely.

Hi-Res gonna Hi-Res. But I'll eat crow if they end up sniffing out a last second NW trend with the 2nd wave.

The 18z does show more ice for Collin/Denton counties, but in fact it shows less for everywhere else. That said, it's still a significant amount of ice (0.50"+).

True, but when you compare the 18z HRRR with the 12z HRRR run, there was a significant increase in ice amounts (widespread 0.50"+ amounts in the northern/eastern suburbs, and widespread 0.25"+ amounts elsewhere).

I saw that post But even if all of the upper level ingredients did come together, there was in all likelihood going to be issues on a mesoscale level that the global models wouldn't pick up on until we were near the onset that would prevent such an extreme outcome (such as moisture transport being disrupted, wake subsidence from each of the subtle shortwaves, and the best area of forcing being a lot more narrow/transitory, etc.). I mean, the idea (according to the late last week / weekend model runs) was there would be a 1000-mile long conveyor belt of moderate/heavy snow over 100 miles in width that lasted 36 hours in any one location. It seems too good to be true when I put it that way.