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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    With 2 colder than average Winters (DJF) in the Northeast (24-25 and 25-26), I was wondering, do we have a higher chance of seeing a cold El Nino Winter next year (26-27)?? (3rd consecutive cold Winter?) Since 1950, I found 10 analogs where there were 2 cold Northeast, US Winter's before an El Nino. That is extremely high. It means 38% of El Nino's were preceded by 2 cold Northeast, US Winters. The odds of one is about 40%, using my guidelines (40-20-40), odds of two 20%, so about +2std, but limited examples [28]. So check it out.. This is the DJF before an El Nino the following year: Winter 25-26: DJF Air Temps 11 months before an El Nino: Winter 25-26: The pre-El Nino composite was a great predictor this past Winter, even outscoring forecasts such as the CPC. Now what did the following, 3rd Winter, El Nino Winter, look like? ^About your average El Nino composite. I'm a little surprised the map isn't skewed colder. The precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid Atlantic, but this is just based on 10 examples: So history says that 2 cold Northeast, US Winters followed by an El Nino does not lean cold for the 3rd, El Nino, Winter, Disqualifying my thought. It's closer to 50/50, just based on history.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I find this to be an good coincidence -- I say coincidence because the QBO is a Stratosphere index. But since the QBO 30mb data started in 1979, every single December (6) in QBO >+5 and ENSO +El Nino -- has had the same anomaly temperature pattern. There is a >90% chance this will be this upcoming December (+QBO/+ENSO). Not only is every map the same, but they are strong anomalies in the Northeast and Great Lakes in every example. Will be interesting to see what happens in December 2026: Following January in +QBO/El Nino: The map skews warmer for El Nino because the +QBO state favors a stronger Stratosphere Polar Vortex. This has correlation with +AO in the +0-day. Not a definite constant, but a higher average in the mean (deep 10mb SPV) -- El nino by itself correlates with more High pressure in the Stratosphere. +QBO Winter upcoming.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    If I made the thread, Super Nino would be in the first post lol
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are still contending with a strongly negative PDO. We have seen this in action, as developing Nino's usually have a -NPH (North Pacific High) correlation May-June, and the opposite has happened so far this year. (I would do 500mb maps, but the CDC has discontinued that site).
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    CANSIPS has a cold bias N. Atlantic SSTAs May-September are a great predictor of coming Winter NAO state. It has started to go more negative over the past few days
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    July has been a wet month since 2017
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    It seems to be warming near the oceans, on the East coast and West coast, but not as much in the Midwest, where it's flat. I remember global predictions in the 90s had a +PDO/El Nino pattern projected for decades forward, but it has not happened that way. Maybe some of the EC warmth is associated with +AMO decadal.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    May be one of the stronger -PNA's on record in the long range, near the 19-20th
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Can someone say +AO? (For the 3rd warm season in a row, since the Solar Max)
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models continue building a Strong Aleutian ridge in the long range
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Nice cold pool SE of New Foundland developing. Warming in the Davis Strait too and south of Greenland. There is SSTA correlation there May-Sept with following Winter NAO, that's pretty high. The current SSTA setup would favor more -NAO conditions in the Winter. Let's see if it holds going forward.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Where's El Nino in the N Pacific?
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just don't really want to do hottest day contest. Thanks for asking though
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good question. Notice the amount of clouds in the sky on an average day. The last few days it was better, but we were really clear in May. A few years ago in February 24/28 were completely clear skies. We are veering towards less precip patterns in the last few years.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm really curious to see how the North Pacific High responds. Should be very telling about larger scale things.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Sky was covered in chemtrail clouds today for the first time in a long time. I guess that means we'll go wetter in a few weeks to months.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Some areas are dry in El Nino, some areas are wet. Our region is usually wetter.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    DonS maintains a big lead. Is my total cumulative with Feb included? If so, my average of months played is giving him a run.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Told you it was a dry pattern. Imagine if it wasn't El Nino. May is our cloudiest month, total clear sky days last month (23/31 or something) is a giveaway.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is a strong Polar Vortex over the Arctic circle for the next 13 days! Since 2012, May-Aug SLP anomaly 60-90N has flipped in the Winter every time. That's a Winter -AO signal (but it's still early)!
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Summer's of our most recent 2 Strong/Super El Nino's 2015 was strong +PDO We are nothing like 1997 anymore
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I know 2002 was dry. I don't think there are actually many cases of hot Summer's in El Nino. Something global is shifting around now, jet stream is lifting north. Edit: 2002 was above average
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've been thinking about starting a thread but I just don't have high enough hopes for the Winter right now
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Boy would I love a -EPO in Super El Nino. That's probably the best combo. CPC is disregarding the CANSIPS completely in their seasonal outlook, and 1 year ago around this time CANSIPS had a large part of the Midwest/Great Lakes -4 to -6 for the month of July at 0.0 month lead and it ended up positive departure across the board. It did do well in lead the last 2 Winter's though, although severely underestimating the warmth in the Mountain West, which I don't think anything got actually.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    2015's big +PDO is starting to diverge us in the NW, US through the 2nd half of May and now heading into June. Watch out expecting a big Winter month or two like that year, because the PDO was >+1 in 2015. Favorable NAO can help though, of course.
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