Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah, but in the subsurface the event is weakening Similar to last year, then waned. The difference is Nino1+2 is warming fast. Strong trades at the surface right now.. if strong -PNA holds until the end of the month like models currently suggest, the subsurface will probably cool even more. It's looking more like Weak-Moderate right now imo. Again, the big challange is we have to do something different from last year. Last year we had this warm push at the same time of year and by late Spring we were cool again.

Since 2015 Super El Nino, STJ correlation(storms cutting up to the Great Lakes in the Winter) has a strong correlation on the following Spring-Summer pattern. Here are our analogs:

Yeah the way the board is setup up now sucks. Let's post a picture of an empty glass, and no weather posts of 7 hours. Waiting on my El NIno post to be approved.. conversation or back and forth, besides everyones posting style is very difficult. I like the practice so I'll continue posting.

Can someone take me off of moderate approval? So that I can engage in a conversation. I keep checking back to see if my posts are approved, and because of this I haven't engaged in weather research posts, because I don't see/feel like it will be timely, and I don't even know why this moderator approval began. How long will it last? No OT/PR and moderator approval. I don't really know why.

The event is actually weakening a little right now in the subsurface. Nino 1+2 is really warming fast, and historically that leads Strong El Nino's, but the atmospheric state is very La Nina, with recent -PDO's setting records since the 1950s.

I knew that when the model changed to -NAO last night we would move away from any potential cold. Let's see what happens if we have a Stratosphere warming, in March. I have a -PNA signal in March, so it might just be the same stuff.

+EPO over performs again. I was telling my mom about this temperature bust 7-14 days ago. This is why the coming storm has no chance.

I haven't seen a team so underrated since the 2000 Ravens. Must be something about this area.. There are like 3 times in my life where the Vegas line was just wrong. This is one of them. There is no doubt in my mind.

SF had a 12-game winning streak, longest since '07 Patriots. PHL beat them 31-7 next game. Jalen Hurts was 17-1 as starter. He got hurt and they went 0-2. When he returned 1st quarter they were up 14-0, Next game they were up 14-0 in the 1st quarter. 17-1 now on the year. Make money. I don't know why the line is -1.5. Probably the silliest thing in all of history. KC was 20-20 or 23-23 vs a personal foul penalty to win the game. Mahome was 26-41 for 300yds. They are weak/going to get blown out. Kemp was their receiver and some other guy they had 20 catches on the year in the game winning drive. I say PHL wins by 14+ add it to my resume or something. Before watching them I doubted heavily, because of general NFC weakness. All those who don't pay attention are mindlessly picking against the Eagles. I say make money. If I had $50,000, I would bet $50,000.

-PNA/+EPO -- have fun with that. It's going to be rain.

Yeah we're already 1 year in the future here.

I saw a butterfly fly across my yard. That bugger was moving fast.

This is really amazing.. I never see the Pink colors get this high. an atestament to non-global warming. -600dm This one hits maybe -650dm

-PNA is going to continue getting cut and sliced up on the LR (long range).

Here you go. Did you know that we broke record around New Year's [img]https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/10mb9065.png [/img]

I'm going to again say this is hitting too hard on models. Expect a not so strong verification, even though this is an ensemble mean/average at 384hr.

-AAM again at 12z 384hr. Not the pattern you would see if the +10f in the central subsurface -200m has more relevance.

That -66 wind chill in Maine is pretty incredible. All we really have correlating is an Arctic Circle high pressure.

lol no chance.. Purdy got hurt kept the Eagles under the radar for some reason. They still would have won14-21+ Hopefully my ENSO posts get approved, I don't want to start a 2023 thread right now. A lot of good information there.

La Nina signal here as -AAM is a La Nina-base state. If we are going into Strong El Nino, you want to see different things transpiring in real time. El Nino for 2023 looks like it's taking a 2nd place stance.

-PNA getting beat up on MR/LR models.. hard to sustain when warm +2-3c waters are hitting the central-200m subsurface. We've been doing this silly reverse-years thing since 2020. It gives credence to next February being +PNA, but the rest of the Winter has had low pressure more common in the N. Pacific.

Eagles only favored by -1.5. I don't know why they keep going under the radar, Hurt's was 17-1 as a starter. A lot of people who don't watch them, take the other side. Easy bets. I knew it all the way both times the Ravens won the Super bowl.. take your about 85% chance at sure money and bet the Eagles. lol (Hurt's could get hurt or it's 90%) edit: can someone please approve my posts in weather section ENSO thread?

Dominant +EPO patterns usually last 7-13 days. This one is starting Feb 5. I really think it will give us glimpse of spring weather this is the reverse-PNA pattern time that is verifying.. but as a 2nd/3rd derivative we are warm.

In the last 2-3 years, we've been breaking -PDO records from the 1950s. December 2021 was the biggest -PNA on record, then 2022 came in #2 this year. Last time it snapped

Maybe we're due for a +NAO