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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    The western subsurface waters are really warm so it has plenty of fuel... It waned a little bit but March isn't late for a Strong Nino to still take hold. What I worry about is this constant -PNA in the N. Pacific, which models have even at D-15 now. Usually there is a small, but decent correlation between developing ENSO events and N. Pacific pattern in the late Winter.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    More of a -PNA on the 0z NAM.. bigger SE ridge. After it was so warm today in already the pattern change, this is par I guess, it's hard to get so warm without a -PNA north Pacific ridge. models are a little behind in this regard. We still have time to trend imo.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Out to 120.. looks like we want to build a CAD wedge to plenty of blocking to the north.. like I said, differences between NAM and GFS in the Pacific is that there's still plenty of time to trend.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here you go guys.. good step 120hrs.. fine
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z GFS still way different from the NAM out west, will need to be worked out. https://ibb.co/sscbm9y big difference for 69hr
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    After today 60 degrees.. it's going to be a colder pattern. Models are running a lot like that, so I don't see why the SE ridge wouldn't trend less with blocking to the north.. It's usually easier said than done: 1 pattern is greater than another pattern, but I think this gravitating south to the gulf stream could make sense. If we can get this storm to happen on the 11th or before we should be fine..
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    In the 60s, these patterns used to really deliver. 18z NAM looks good, imo. It's really favorable in the upper levels so I'm not going away.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    If we can get this thing to come earlier, it would be better.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Stronger/more amped WC energy 0z https://ibb.co/5B9dBFg Stronger -NAO.. slightly sw pac ridge, but it's oriented more toward -epo, and a +pna trough looks like it's trying to undercut the ridge vs 18z
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    WOW 18z NAM vs 12z GFS https://ibb.co/0shS616
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    February is the strongest Nino month. This is what the last El Nino February did!
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    18-19 Weak Nino didn't do good enough.. We had a -PNA that Winter and near +200dm in February! We need a healthy Moderate or Strong Nino imo.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ensembles look great.. we still have plenty of time for an adjustment. Models will have to kill the -EPO imo for a cutter through the Rockies/Midwest.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well the Pacific changes conditions today. By Monday, it's full on +pdo(+pna/-epo). Models seem to have been over initializing current conditions, so let's see if that changes anything.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Stronger +PNA Low and higher ridge into Alaska.. funny. At this point, something will need to be worked out between the two (SE ridge 2nd part). They are like slowly organizing an amplified pattern slowly...
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    It kind of seems like models are being "lazy" in my opinion, over amplifying the energy because it can't handle the heavily amplified new pattern.. maybe the EPO area will adjust on future model runs?
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Would have to suppress the SE ridge if that holds.. maybe the energy splits? Pretty wild to go SE ridge when this is dominating and -NAO too. It can happen, but something might need to be worked out.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at that storm! STJ amped east and west to hold its energy as a general pattern.. check
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The pattern is a little more uniform though.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    STJ continues to be really amplified at 98hr.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    wet Could really be an amplified solution down the line. Intuition is that the SE ridge would have to get squashed with such a favorable upper latitude pattern, unless the upper latitudes change on models.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Active STJ building here Rain or snow, it's going to be a wild time period with so much energy.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    What a monster pattern.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at how wet the STJ is.
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