Stormchaserchuck1

There are signs of a -NAO/-AO developing in the first week of March on LR models, with a +120dm anomaly over the arctic circle at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. I think initially we will even out the cold signal with -PNA/+EPO-even, but watch to around March 7/8-18 for a possible window,bridge between the Pacific/Atlantic. (10mb warmings don't always downwell to -NAO+time, but about 70% of the time they do.)

I do want to say good job GFS not showing long range snowstorms, for many Winter's now, in verification. It was not like that in the early 2000s. -PNA signal in February is a reverse-ENSO historically by May-August that year(higher developing El Nino tendency). Correlation is 0.4 to a +NAO April (-PNA February, which should be top 15 all time this year). 0.3 correlation to -PNA March.

I missed this one straight up. Usually there are mathematical odds that buck the odds of mathematic-mean or something. Hurts fumble for a touchdown really hurt it. You could see that the Chiefs were better practiced/coached.

Mahomes had more yards from scrimmage this season than any player all time, 5,730 or something. Ralph Wiggum nailed it saying the line scares him.

Super -PNA. Yikes. watch the 60s if -pna/+nao verifies at that time of year. Not going to become a cold look very quickly. We actually need a +pna Luckily, the EPS sucks as a model because it's a follower

Unless that ridge in northern Europe takes over NAO domain, that will verify in the 60s/70s probably (3 sigma +NAO).

This is really warm (-PNA/+NAO)

That modeled 10mb would correlate to -NAO tendency March 8-15. Last year we had a pretty strong +NAO at that time, and we have been reversing lasts years pattern more than mathematical average, so it fits. I would not be surprised if a +EPO/-PNA occurred at the same time as a downwelling -NAO.

Pick the Eagles today vs the spread...

HIgher odds of -QBO next Winter QBO analogs-El Nino lately has been 14-15, 09-10. Reverse 22-23. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index fwiw. Stratosphere warming is the signal, and around New Years this year we had the lowest 10mb on record. It's been holding true..

Check this out.. before the 15-16 Super Nino, the SSTs were opposite of this year, cold Nino1+2. My point is that Nino 1+2 didn't mean much, in how that year progressed

Nice squall line on 18z GFS

The models are starting to include a -NAO from 10mb warming making it to 500mb by the turn of the month. March 2018 could be a good analog, if it pans out. If it's a legit Stratosphere warming, the lag time to 500mb at this time of the year is +15-20 Days (There is no D-0 correlation minus commonalities(+=+)).

Yeah, but in the subsurface the event is weakening Similar to last year, then waned. The difference is Nino1+2 is warming fast. Strong trades at the surface right now.. if strong -PNA holds until the end of the month like models currently suggest, the subsurface will probably cool even more. It's looking more like Weak-Moderate right now imo. Again, the big challange is we have to do something different from last year. Last year we had this warm push at the same time of year and by late Spring we were cool again.

Since 2015 Super El Nino, STJ correlation(storms cutting up to the Great Lakes in the Winter) has a strong correlation on the following Spring-Summer pattern. Here are our analogs:

Yeah the way the board is setup up now sucks. Let's post a picture of an empty glass, and no weather posts of 7 hours. Waiting on my El NIno post to be approved.. conversation or back and forth, besides everyones posting style is very difficult. I like the practice so I'll continue posting.

Can someone take me off of moderate approval? So that I can engage in a conversation. I keep checking back to see if my posts are approved, and because of this I haven't engaged in weather research posts, because I don't see/feel like it will be timely, and I don't even know why this moderator approval began. How long will it last? No OT/PR and moderator approval. I don't really know why.

The event is actually weakening a little right now in the subsurface. Nino 1+2 is really warming fast, and historically that leads Strong El Nino's, but the atmospheric state is very La Nina, with recent -PDO's setting records since the 1950s.

I knew that when the model changed to -NAO last night we would move away from any potential cold. Let's see what happens if we have a Stratosphere warming, in March. I have a -PNA signal in March, so it might just be the same stuff.

+EPO over performs again. I was telling my mom about this temperature bust 7-14 days ago. This is why the coming storm has no chance.

I haven't seen a team so underrated since the 2000 Ravens. Must be something about this area.. There are like 3 times in my life where the Vegas line was just wrong. This is one of them. There is no doubt in my mind.

SF had a 12-game winning streak, longest since '07 Patriots. PHL beat them 31-7 next game. Jalen Hurts was 17-1 as starter. He got hurt and they went 0-2. When he returned 1st quarter they were up 14-0, Next game they were up 14-0 in the 1st quarter. 17-1 now on the year. Make money. I don't know why the line is -1.5. Probably the silliest thing in all of history. KC was 20-20 or 23-23 vs a personal foul penalty to win the game. Mahome was 26-41 for 300yds. They are weak/going to get blown out. Kemp was their receiver and some other guy they had 20 catches on the year in the game winning drive. I say PHL wins by 14+ add it to my resume or something. Before watching them I doubted heavily, because of general NFC weakness. All those who don't pay attention are mindlessly picking against the Eagles. I say make money. If I had $50,000, I would bet $50,000.

-PNA/+EPO -- have fun with that. It's going to be rain.

Yeah we're already 1 year in the future here.

I saw a butterfly fly across my yard. That bugger was moving fast.