Stormchaserchuck1

384hr has had a +PNA since 1/22. It's been slowly bleeding into the sooner frames, and we even have it at day-13 today, but it's been stuck in the LR. Today's 384hr has the best trough over the EC of the cycle, but we also had some pretty big changes in the Pacific toward more -PNA for the first 2 weeks of February now.

I said in my post it's still in the 13-day

Now it looks like target date for pattern change is 2/15. It was starting to move into the 12-13d yesterday, but today at 12z it's back to 13-15d, with 384hr being the best signal. Been like that for 8 days now.

Got rid of that SW energy. Still, I'll be disappointed if we leave the period without 15-20". The biggest issue with +PNA's historically is that they are dry, but there is no dry tendency this year.

Who wants to choose the weekend as their threat window?

As Joe Burrow says, let them taunt. Such a stupid broken energy when they make so many calls because the players care about what happens. They get paid 50mill/yr, they don't need to care so much about the outcome of the game.. the incentives for winning are very small. Just really dumb, and a staple mark especially in America to penalize everything that could be something.

I would have been surprised if we went throughout a strong -QBO/strong El Nino with -10mb.

Because I think the NAO on LR models is responding to Stratosphere warming, here's research that I did on typical lagtime: Jan 13-24 10mb warming https://ibb.co/PhFsN3M Correlates at +25 days to 500mb -NAO... so that makes its window ~Feb 7-18. Obviously the 17-24 day CMC and EPS that brooklynwx posted goes beyond that window of time, so we'll see what happens. I would bet that the chance of a -NAO goes down toward the end of February.

Even if it comes in pieces, we should do fine.. global precipitation is way above average, #2 was Jan 2016. Too early to start a storm thread for Feb 17-18?

Finally got the +PNA to move out of the 384hr panel at 12z, it now has the strongest N. Pacific Low 336-372hr. Look at what's on the STJ here at 384hr: https://ibb.co/31Z0Xqw

Strongest LR +PNA signal I have seen on a 384hr GFS ensemble mean.. it looks like the weeklies/seasonals will be hitting it. https://ibb.co/xDkm28h

I don't remember seeing -250dm on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean before.. 6z GEFS has it as a solid +PNA low. Again, here's the correlation to storm placement in the east: https://ibb.co/M6msjHq

Really nice +PNA getting going here

Good post raindance. I think a lot of the warmth in that position of the country has come from +nao/+epo, where the actual El Nino forces the North Pacific High to be weaker, and that's what a more direct point of effect is. This year we have not seen that weakening of the North Pacific High like Stronger El Nino years.. funny that the energy mets will probably get it right, but it's important to know that in the future something like this sequence is less likely to happen again. I have been leaning toward a warm March for the US, because I think that's a strong trend developing over the last few years, but you make a good case for it to be an interesting month temp and storm-wise.

We're still doing really well here in precipitable water.. look near CA and FL. https://ibb.co/frw6QCv

Yeah I would say right now Feb 14th starts our storm threat window.

18z GEFS, now the WC ridge is being pushed back a few panels lol Looks good at 384hr still though.. picking up a slight -NAO in the LR this run.

That's more of a +NAO.. in the NAO domain

We were saying before that a -NAO may be hard to comeby. That shift in the mean-ridge from the south Davis strait (south based -NAO) to basically over Ontario is kind of important, because the model is now including our 80-degree day a few days ago. The analogs I was looking at were saying the +AO/NAO could be hard to switch, and look, the -NAO ridge shifted south.

We're going to go into Feb 13/14 with no snow. Global models had us below average temps/above normal precip for Jan and February, almost every run going back to September.

Yeah, its been showing it at Day 16 for a week now actually. But inside 16-days it's not holding the same strength is hit point.. today might be different though, because we're starting to pop a strong western ridge too, it's becoming a more organized pattern on the Day 16 model

Really good trend here in the LR! +PNA is massive, although it has been at the last panel for several days now. This is what you like to see though.. https://ibb.co/6YdrpgN Here are some Feb correlations to +PNA pattern: https://ibb.co/PQ4cLzn https://ibb.co/0jbdZK3 https://ibb.co/M6msjHq

Yeah my research gave Mahomes close to a 60% chance of covering. It looks like the Ravens weren't really challenged at all this year before the game. They were outplayed.

March Natural Gas... really coming in low here, the vs Gasoline/Crude Oil spread is top 5 all time. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ

March Natural Gas = cheap. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ