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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I love how this looks with a 50/50 low. Snowstorms in +EPO's aren't happening this Winter.. I highlight the western trough, because that is the point in rising-out-of-NAO that usually produces a snowstorm.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    D-0. I tested time lags and found no definitive result vs 0-d.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like the pattern. EPO shifts out of it's horrid state March 7-8, then you know that research has been done that coming out of a big -NAO block, we usually get a snowstorm rising out of it.. With a +PNA low, and northern Canada hook up of the ridge, I think it may be that trough over the west that we need to watch. or even the threats following, I have a decent N. Hemisphere signal until March 19th.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks like we're trying to pop a +PNA as this Aleutian block/ridge fades. I like that big piece of energy in the west rolling under the west-based -NAO block with an above-average STJ in play. ^pacific and atlantic ridges almost hook up here. let's see if it holds.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    EPO has trended so warm lately that it might see-saw then. I've seen it happen before. Doesn't mean that a storm won't avoid us when/if that happens.. I like that EPO-timing of our lifting out of west-based -NAO block, and active STJ, too bad it will be the 2nd or 3rd week of March.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    +EPO alert Feb 25-March 4. Expect temperatures to bust warmer as we get closer.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    1 down, 4 to go. I think we'll have more of an El Nino/+PNA in those 4 Winter's, but when it's not we could bake. Also, the SW is finishing colder this Winter for the first time in a long time.. good news for us for colder eventually back east (SW, US).
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've actually been watching these maps daily since the late 1990s, and I've never seen 6 different areas of shaded purple, at different times. (It almost does 7 and 8 over Alaska and western Russia) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still a strong D-0 correlation between PNA and subsurface ENSO This is really different from rapid developing El Nino. Remember in 2021 and 2022 we had the same warmth below Nino 4. The big determinant is where we are on March 9th/10, imo. We have -PNA until then so let's see if the subsurface cools more... We are back to below average mean 165W->e. Similar actually to last year at this time, although I don't know that we go so deep in March.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    They were trying to trim down my energy at a certain point. Fight it. No one can take any little thing from you..
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Highest ACE cyclone hitting Madagascar since 1980.. Really nice conditions over Atlantic tropics today, and next 3 days.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Beautiful day in the 60s ^Looks like the Atlantic is getting pretty favorable for a good hurricane season
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Volatile. -NAO trends stronger, Pacific ridge trends stronger.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Come on.. look at this pattern when/if the warm air breaks down. (as long as the epo is +, it's going to be rain. There is something called "snapping", where as our warm days busted warmer, conditions over Alaska trended colder in the upper atmosphere. After so much of that you sometimes get 5-10 days of -EPO or something. ) There is also that +EPO's last 7-13 days, and this one is going Feb 24-March 5 (10 days).
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    That was Feb 19! I think I should win it if temps go a little bit higher here at the end of the month.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    We'll get snow if it gets cold enough. March 9>> Anyone remember March 31/April 1, 1997?
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Active STJ. watch my March 9-19 window
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we have NAO dominate the N. Hemisphere pattern March 9-19, but I wonder if that is too late after the Stratosphere downwelling time to 500mb is around the turn of the month.. If it lasts, we kind of have a signal for the Pacific to take #2. STJ remains active on the LR GFS, and after December was only the 2nd December ever with -NAO and above average precip across the country it could happen.. I still worry about the Pacific-Atlantic neg correlation (-NAO going deeper is +EPO/-PNA going deeper/mirroring).
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Keeping the STJ active Usually in -NAO it dries up.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe someone is buying up natural gas?
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    We've been in this negative-NAO correlation/Pacific thing since 2013, and more so 2019. March 2018 was a west-based NAO block that came from SSW. I am afraid the strength of -NAO will only be mirrored by strength of +EPO/-PNA.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska and believe it or not there is a slight +nao correlation to snow too. If you minus the rising-out-of-negNAO-snowstorms, the correlation is greater.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now we have a nice -NAO developing here in the LR on the ensembles Edit: kicks over to Greenland not as strong. Probably fitting to the March 9th-19 window I talked about.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    How long does it last for? Oct 30-Nov15: 45-60 days to downwell Nov 15-Dec 15: 30-45 days to downwell Dec 15-Jan 15: 25-35 days to downwell Jan 15-Feb 15: 15-25 days to downwell Feb 15-Mar 15: ~15 days to downwell Mar 15-Apr1: ~10 days to downwell (Started 2-15): 15 days to downwell.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually, has it happened yet? Because in La Nina/+QBO, you usually don't get Stratosphere warmings.
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