Stormchaserchuck1

Your presupposition is that Strong El Nino's are bad for I-95? That's not necessarily true, the below average snowfall this season has been more from -PNA/+EPO, which are more La Nina patterns, vs it being a Strong El Nino.. In the examples of 72-73 and 97-98, there was a strong N. Pacific low pressure (El Nino effect), but the jet stretched over N. America to include the east coast in those years (which is more rare of an occurance).

I don't think so.. https://ibb.co/Xk3MNZC It seems to be an effect of the Pacific Ocean vs Global warming, unless you argue that more La Nina's occur in Global warming.. what I always heard about it in the 1990s was that more El Nino's would be the effect.

It hasn't happened so far this in this El Nino.. maybe the February correlation will hold. I think an El Nino should favor +PNA/-NPH (North Pacific High) all times of the Winter, but the "Dec warm" thing held this year so maybe Feb will too.

We've had a moderate Stratosphere warming for the last 7 days.. It even maxed out >2,000, which is pretty strong. https://ibb.co/kXmPbht At this time of the year, 10mb warming correlates to -NAO in +20 days about 2/3 times. That puts it at Feb 2-10. LR models don't have the NAO negative right now Feb 2-6, so we'll see. (The correlation isn't perfect it could range +5-10 days.) Some will say that we already had the -NAO effect, but I disagree, on the last day of this 10mb (in this image below), the 500mb NAO is positive, and the historical analysis shows that 10mb usually leads in time, although 500mb and 10mb are kind of lined up right now. https://ibb.co/BK0hdy6

We've had a moderate Stratosphere warming for the last 7 days.. It even maxed out >2,000, which is pretty strong. https://ibb.co/kXmPbht At this time of the year, 10mb warming correlates to -NAO in +20 days about 2/3 times. That puts it at Feb 2-10. LR models don't have the NAO negative right now Feb 2-6, so we'll see. (The correlation isn't perfect it could range +5-10 days.)

I think they use a skewed mean, where like 30 days of +1.00 would be a +3.00 monthly reading, but I'm not 100% sure. (That's why I said January will probably end up around +1.00.)

It's a little drier. I would give it a +0.10 advantage all things neutral, but because we're so sensitive with the 32 degree mark it's probably higher here..

Yeah.. I lose what I'm going to say when I don't get to the computer in time lol. AO is going to hit +3.5 on the dailies in a few days... It seems like after good snows, we really amp the AO, doesn't it?

After a playoff bye the team beats the spread 52% of the time. South teams (FL, TX, LA, GA, CA, AZ) playing in under 30 degrees loses vs the spread 59% of the time.

Texans are a pretty good team. It's hard to watch this SF/GB game after the Ravens..

Maybe the SE will get a storm.

Feb 11 - March 5? What did those long ranges say in Nov/Oct?

NAO is rapidly going + now. beginning of the end.. we are going to need a pattern change for snow again. That's what the the last 4-5 years have taught me, without favorable upper latitudes/indexes, we rarely if ever get snow these days.

I've done research on the MJO and found little predictive value. Also, when it was being used real time 2015-2020, it was not verifying like historical composites.. I think that continued into the 2020s but I'm not sure. What I mean is, models predict the amplitude of the MJO and that varies, every day it goes stronger or weaker.. but as a lagged variable (using current state to predict future weather) it was providing no skill over the models. I think it was developed sometime in the early 2000s, when most of the better stuff came before year 2000. My opinion.

A little more -PNA this time yeah.. this El Nino is not really acting strong in the upper latitudes. We've been missing the N. Pacific low. We do though have the most equilateral convection all time https://ibb.co/9tN0Vyv Most opposite year on satellite record is 95-96 https://ibb.co/zN1pNYJ I rolled forward both states, and found a heavy +warm bias for enhanced convection, the globe was up to 40-50dm higher at 500mb for the next year (vs -40 to -50dm in neg composite).. means we can expect a mild year coming. Analog years were split in time so there's little global warming skew.

This looks like 72-73 analog https://ibb.co/FDvpj32 A positive is, that can sometimes be a loading pattern for -NAO +time. Big El Nino's with net cold water in the subsurface support that map believe it or not. https://ibb.co/gwTQ69n

585dm Gulf of Alaska High Euro weeklies had like a 3std +PNA occurring through the month of February.. enso subsurface is cooling though. I have found there to be a +correlation with the N. Pacific pattern in now-time, with what the subsurface conditions are.

The first wave Stratosphere warming occurred Dec 25 - Jan 9th. This was, I would say a 3/10 scale warming. We did get the same kind of effects as the examples above of cold in the US +time, which we are still experiencing now, Jan 20th. -NAO occurred Jan 4-19, so a little sooner than my perfect correlation time. Now we are seeing a 2nd wave Stratosphere warming, starting on Jan 13. It's so close to the last one, you can probably say the entire time is +Stratosphere warming, especially because 10mb never went below a 0 anomaly. It is rising and peaking now though, and on this latest map of Jan 17th: https://ibb.co/W5CDyQG Average time for effect of this max period is +20 days at this time of the year, so the highest probability of NAO correlation is Feb 5-7, as of right now. Here was the 1st wave 10mb warming final analysis: https://ibb.co/s1hYmTY US temps have looked like this since Jan 5: https://ibb.co/fM3YWKC (I'll probably do a +25 day final analysis when it's available, since that was the estimated time from when 1st wave occurred to effect.)

We are getting a pretty good Stratosphere warming now: https://ibb.co/W5CDyQG At this time of the year, the average time to effect the NAO/ground pattern is +20 days. That would be Feb ~7-10. Here is a post about what recent patterns have occurred when the 10mb warmings "downwelled" in time:

So the +PNA/+NAO is going to lead to a -PNA that is going to lead to a -NAO, that is going to lead back to a +PNA?

Here's my deck, tonight, after the combined 2 storms. https://ibb.co/zsFGc67

Stratosphere warmings have happened lately with a SE ridge in the +time to downwell, since 15-16.. Jan 22-28 NAO analogs show the +NAO coming is partially because of timing with the Strat warming (waxes and wanes). Beyond then, Feb has been severely impacted by the a La Nina global base state.. it's the decadal cycle.

I give it a "B" It could have been powdry and windy/blowing snow.. 7" on the ground in an arctic airmass is awesome though.

`15-16 storm had such a high precip content though, and it was gone in a week with mild temps. I will much rather take these 20s/10s arctic days.

I have 7" on the ground. It doesn't melt here like other places, because I am in the deep woods. Really beautiful night out, almost full moon in the sky. 3.6" with this one.