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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    like tresspass?
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I am excited. We are really in a warm era though. Things need to happen just right. We do have the perfect look at day 15, but let me go over what is normally a +PNA pattern (the main feature right now for that time) Temps: https://ibb.co/68v50zF Precip: https://ibb.co/T8789w8 Sea-level pressure: https://ibb.co/W5SyPpN SLP between here and the coast of -0.3-0.4 is the big deal, and why you get SECS'/MECS' in +PNA patterns.. they bomb over the immediate coastal water. But precip is generally lower, unless you get a big piece in the STJ from, say, El Nino (which is why I'm excited about this particular +pna pattern). The 2std low in texas on Feb 18th is a really good indicator of that for this time, and eventually transferring off the coast with a GOA low and 50/50 low in place... almost perfect generally speaking. Let's just hope this look holds... I don't care so much that the 384hr gfs is not logistically showing a snowstorm right now.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historically speaking, these are the 3 main ingredients for a major snowstorm. https://ibb.co/TwM8d7y Now it looks like potentially Feb 19-20, but let's see if the recent trend of less +PNA inside 12-days stops tomorrow.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wish I had the 16day GFS ensemble maps from 10 days ago.. I think in the longer range that everyone is talking about (last week of Feb/early Mar), we might have to worry about the staying power of +pna: It hasn't sustained more than a short time for a very long time.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    +15-20 days.. ~March 2-7
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    This one looks even better for coming SECS/MECS, especially if that NE trough becomes a 50/50 low. The N. Pacific low south of the Gulf of Alaska is in the perfect position, with active energy along the STJ in the southern US. Let's see if it holds
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hey guys! Today's LR ensembles look really good for a possible storm around Feb 19th. https://ibb.co/r4tx7cj The -EPO is what I really like to see, because that has the biggest net difference to our Winter snowfall (temps+precip together). +PNA's are cold, and they favor low pressure on the coastline, but sometimes they can be as moisture starved as they are cold. This setup looks really good for ~Feb 19... the N. Pacific low east of the Aleutian island/+PNA spot, is really good for our active STJ and a potential monster storm! The LR hasn't been trending favorably inside 12 days lately, so that's the only negative... but as guidance looks now, I'd say big potential likely ~ Feb 19
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I continue to love this setup https://ibb.co/YLmngK1
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I love how far east the +PNA low is here, with energy in the SW. https://ibb.co/WkHs0BX
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I remember heavy sleet.. the forecast before the storm kept going up, I think we maxed out at 30-36" expected in Baltimore city, then 2 days before it was suppose to mix and we even had forecasts up to 2' of snow the day of, but it ended up being 12" + a lot of sleet (3-4")
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks Roger
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    GOM moisture! Associated with my SW vort/weakness energy at 384hr.. to time a storm ~Feb 19th
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    The Arctic High pressure is never so strong that you have to worry about which side of the world the cold is on...
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I know.. the sun has been really bright around late February/early March the last few years especially.. I feel like we are going against trends to get this cold Feb 15th+
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is actually a -AO https://ibb.co/XX6TJ6p
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    For the first 2 weeks of February, we are like +5. All you have to do is look at models to see that. that would mean it takes a <-5 anomaly the 2nd half of the month to not be above average.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Today I'm going to say that the Euro snow maps for Feb 18-20+ is wrong.. and that we'll do well. Wild card is -NAO not happening like the models show, but it seems to be a strong feature on the CMC ensembles
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I really like how favorable the Pacific is. Usually in +PNA you get a trough over the Aleutian islands, but its placement a little east on the models is the perfect position for our historical strong snowstorms.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Big energy dropping into the SW on the 12z GEFS.. Almost perfect position of the N. Pacific low, strong snowstorm potential ~ Feb 19th, maybe all the way down to Atl/NC if this is to be believed https://ibb.co/gDMrtYM
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    DCA 0.0 NYC 0.0 BOS 0.0 ORD +3.0 ATL -2.3 IAH -1.8 DEN +2.0 PHX +1.0 SEA +2.5
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    The board used to be rich with people making their own forecasts. You don't really see that anymore, they just analyze the model, and it's nothing that really posts any advantage vs what the model says. I wish more people would make their own forecasts, but that kind of thing is not really respected, and it is LR model fantasy worshipping just based on just what everyone wants, well said. Sometimes I don't feel the extra effort worth it (especially when I'll get 6 weenies for saying "pattern bad") and do the same thing. brooklynwx is the closest one to posting their own stuff of value, but he falls into a lot of generalized/lazy terms and methods that don't test back if you do the research, or know what it actually is.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not really a La Nina signal yet.. or at least, based on 75 years of satellite data https://ibb.co/gPrZP2Y
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder if LR models have a relative potential energy weight.. like it seems like when we are warm on the initial day or days +0-5, the LR goes crazy with cold at days 17-24. Like, warm now, is cold later, like a see-saw. Maybe not? It just seems like we have to have this 5-7 day running +departure to clear for more realistic LR model estimates to verify. Maybe because super LR output is new? I wouldn't bet against cold after Feb 14/15, but maybe it won't be as crazy as these -430dm -NAO's.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like Baltimore is coming in +3.3 for January, DC +2.3 and Dullus +3. Seasonals had -1 to -3. Looks like right now the same kind of deal for the first 2 weeks of February.
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