Stormchaserchuck1

wet Could really be an amplified solution down the line. Intuition is that the SE ridge would have to get squashed with such a favorable upper latitude pattern, unless the upper latitudes change on models.

Active STJ building here Rain or snow, it's going to be a wild time period with so much energy.

What a monster pattern.

Look at how wet the STJ is.

This is why Alaska and Greenland are here!

Yeah, that's a pretty awesome look. look at the cold air wedging in

Nice, healthy -EPO and -NAO on 18z NAM at 84hr. I can see the lower latitudes fitting under this very well. Maybe the earlier piece trends. It seems for that for an EC trough/snowstorm, they always want to make it GOA low. (^That -EPO is too organized and strong for a strong, sustained SE ridge.)

Top 5-10 event as center point extremes, but everything's getting warmer so..

Look at this monster pattern.

Even the Strong Nino's have trended away from pattern.

Because of the -NAO tendency, I might expect this to trend south. It's not too late here.. can't be any later.

Really warm in the western subsurface.. +4c. If models are right and El Nino happens, it could be a sustained thing. 14-15, 15-16 comes to mind.

I think if we can get the storm in here on the 11th or before, we should be snow. The south-+PNA I wouldn't worry about, I think this a feature of the warm pattern. That -EPO is the key for this storm.

Fwiw, I don't like to see this stuff for future model trend, it seems to go to -PNA

The 12z NAM was really strong with the -PNA/SE ridge

Oct 30-Nov 15: 60 day correlation to 500mb Nov 15-30: 40-45 day correlation to 500mb Dec 1-31: 30-40 day correlation to 500mb Jan 1-31: 20-30 day correlation to 500mb Feb 1-28: 15-25 day correlation to 500mb. etc. They aren't common, as these are anomalies vs the climo-norm. Here's a graph. Or maybe I'm misunderstanding your question? I'm really impressed with the predictable lead time of D+15 in this 10mb warming to +600dm -NAO. Pretty classic.

Stratosphere is warming again. This is a pretty severe warming. There is a 10-15 day lag at this time of the year with 500mb NAO correlation. It's been a nonstop 10mb warm phase since February 15 (15-28). What's interesting is that I had another and unrelated factor which is a -NAO signal until March 19th (3.9-19): This year-to-year change has been hitting pretty hard in verification for 2 years. These are two really strong factors. If the -NAO really lifts out the 10th/11, it will say to me that it doesn't have any staying power at this time, which is what I theorized because the Pacific always had an opposite correlation to EC cold when the NAO was negative/positive-cold. I also think there is a high bust-potential, (vs model verification accuracy) that/for -NAO conditions March 11-19. I also think this gravity could slightly make our storm have colder stay power on model trend, but I don't like what happens in the Pacific after March 11. The Pacific may equalize it out, and when that High leaves Alaska, it's game over as far as our snow chances goes.

Yeah, the SE ridge is strong in spite of the Pacific.

I can't believe the low is cutting into Canada with a near +600dm -NAO. What a good setup for a HECS v. The Pacific is already favorable here. I'd worry about last second warming with the coastal if it happens after the 11th.

I thought you guys would be pumping the 300hr panel, it finally shows a vortex/trough moving across our region. I wouldn't expect snow in this pattern at all. The High up top is the only thing really fundamental for a snowstorm, they always trend toward a GOA low. Once that -EPO/west -NAO moves out, it should be a flood of warm air(on the current model).

Oh wow. Look at this in the LR.

Really lost that Aleutian ridge to the north of Hawaii trough at 18z. The models will adjust. It's a below average temperature pattern. We aren't going to hold all three of those conditions: +PNA, -NAO, SE ridge. Only if the Aleutian island High strengthens back.

That first wave will moisten up, and like brooklynwx posted, it's a below average temperature pattern while several waves move through. :)

Strongest -NAO yet, this is a +500dm block now on the 18z GFS ensembles. Pacific trended more +PNA today in the MR. I like the idea of that WC trough as it moves east.

They couldn't take the ECMWF's domination. Had to even it out with ensembles. They seem like 0.40 correlated with initial conditions that day.