Stormchaserchuck1

Looks like -PNA/+NAO Euro seasonal actually did very good about the hot Summer in the NE this year from this range. They were pretty far off about a cooler Winter last year in the east.. it has a heavy ENSO bias

Weird..

Wonder if you've seen the CPC's DJF forecast. Looks pretty good for you.

Yeah the July number.. I think that means it peaks at >+20 in the next few months. QBO phases aren't always as strong as that.. This makes the ENSO state more sensitive, as a Stronger La Nina will connect in the stratosphere with -10mb conditions in the cold season, likely leading to a +AO. Having a La Nina/+QBO or El Nino/-QBO is about 75% for 10mb anomaly Nov-Mar, which is a pretty high correlation. Having a stronger QBO tightens that up a bit. but a weak La Nina or the subsurface moderating could weaken the signal

My thing with a +NAO is, it has been connecting with a N. Pacific ridge in the northern latitudes, more since 2013 and even more since 2019. If that RNA ridge expands over Alaska, you can get some good precip combos in the interior NE as storms run inland (+nao) and hit some pretty strong temp gradients (-epo). 21-22 is one example of the N. Pacific ridge extending north.

Yeah it's pretty high up there on the probability of happening. Here is the final Dec - July map: So the analogs fit.. I think it was 25 of the 30 that continued the same direction very consistently through the following March (out of 75). The central-ENSO subsurface is still posting -6c readings, meaning that water temps there are 12c vs what we saw this time a year ago of 21-22c! There is a -PNA effect in the N. Pacific pattern with those cold subsurface waters.. 30mb QBO came in +12.53 for August.. so that is heading toward another strong phase in the Fall and Winter... that is my hesitation on a cold Dec, I think -QBO and La Nina favors cold Decembers but not +qbo. The stronger/faster Polar Vortex at 10mb, has a pretty direct effect to the surface around the Winter solstice. Also, we set some precedents in Dec 2021 when the -PNA hit 600dm. That longer term -PNA phase that is still progressing during that month. Because of above normal precip probability, I still like the Great Lakes and interior NE for snow, but now way down here.. -PNA/+NAO is the worst pattern probably besides +EPO. If those storms cut up through the Ohio Valley like I think, we could see a lot of days in the 60s. Of course, there is still the wild card/potential variable that the EPO flips to negative.. I'd give the chance of that happening for the Winter at 15% (13-14 analog) and 20% of a less extreme version of 13-14, which is actually high considering the alternative. I don't think that we'll have another +WPO Winter (5 of the last 6 Winters have been +WPO).

I agree with you. This could ramp up quickly into a Hurricane. Models remain too far NE with the position of the low pressure, which is also moving a little more W right now than modeled. The only negative is that western tip of Cuba has pretty high elevation. Let's see how far west it can go.

Storms are actually dying over me.. a little bit of thunder, that's it.

2 days around 100 after all. Don't underestimate the power of a +EPO to bust temps higher. This pattern changes in the next few days.. Models that had +EPO sticking until Aug 10th completely busted in this regard.

Yeah, I am about to get crushed. This will be the 2nd decent thunderstorm of the year lol It seems like for the last 20 years NE MD has done much better rain-wise than SW of DC.

A little bit of a model bust.. looks way south of Cuba, models had it scraping the northern edge.

Maybe that line in the Ohio will hold together and give us a small derecho in the morning? 4 days of rain in the forecast, and not even many clouds in verification.. The global precipitable water was record highest in the Winter and early Spring, so this dry streak really came out of nowhere.. we aren't even breaking the cap unless there is a strong frontal boundary..

DCA: +1.4NYC: +1.5BOS: +1.2ORD: +0.1ATL: +0.9IAH: +1.1DEN: +0.8PHX: +2.2SEA: +2.0

You can see where tropical conditions are becoming more favorable in the Pacific as the MJO wave progresses east

It's interesting that the roll-forwards for warm CONUS Dec - June, and Dec - July, had August as a break month along with December.. This beats even CPC, who was very bullish on much above average temperatures a short time ago. Something to consider.. the roll forwards were very warm every month through March 2025, with Dec and August being only neutral. August looks like it will fit that pattern with a -EPO developing for some of the time. Doesn't mean Sept-Oct will be cool.

I think so.. I think they had above average for July. I can't believe this is day 3 of no precip here after all the rain on models.. I've never seen so much cap hold as this Summer so far..

I think the point is negative AAO and AO is a decadal state. This makes the reversal forecast interesting this Winter, with 3 of the last 4 Winters having +H5 anomalies over Greenland (-AO), and the one that was not was neutral. But we are in this pattern where -AO is heavily correlating with --PNA.. If the NAO does go negative this Winter, or the there are -NAO periods, I would bet the N. Pacific High flexes at the same time.

I'm surprised there is another -5 reading at the same time of year, not too long ago.. I guess with less topography, Antarctica does it more easily. Is 1100 hPa an all time record? Edit:

Here you guys go.. for all the drought cries, we sure do pretty often get enough rain.. It always goes above average precip after an extended dry period in the east..

You guys might find this interesting.. there is a +correlation. What are the odds the very north pole has the strongest lagged anomaly? Hitting +0.5, which is 3 out of every 4 times. v Displaced in Dec, but you get the point

AAO is literally falling off the charts after recent Stratosphere warming. It's important to note the time lag. The 10mb warming occurred July 6-19, making this +10-25 days to +20-35 days. 10mb warmings don't have the strongest correlated impact with the surface immediately, but with +time (how much time depends on when in the year it happens, closer to early Winter more +time, closer to late Winter less +time). I found the sweet spot for early to mid July in the Southern Hemisphere to be +20-25 days.

ENSO subsurface is dropping again.. tomorrow we might pop a -6c max area on TAO/Triton maps. This is impressive, considering the SOI has never been above +4 monthly for the whole event so far.. I think the Atlantic hurricane season should start to get going when the MJO becomes favorable. We might see more big storms, vs # of storms this year, as such a thing is correlated to La Nina conditions in the subsurface.

So how would you predict the MJO in advance? You use SSTs west of Nino 4 (and ENSO of course)? I've tried many things with the MJO and never came up with something that works from a good lead time.

Yeah, most of the -NAO periods have happened in December or March.. then when we had a -NAO in the middle of last Winter, we did have 2 snow events down in the Mid-Atlantic. I'd much rather look at 500mb maps though. The 2nd part of the CPCs range of negative anomalies 45N from the East coast to Africa is -NAO, but the PNA has been interfering lately... not that it isn't -NAO, just that downstream the Pacific ridge has been causing the mid latitudes in the Atlantic to stay warm (2nd 50% of their NAO calculation). For practical purposes, I'm going to call the upper latitude pattern the NAO.

You can sometimes get -NAO in the midst of shutout patterns. Look at Dec 2001 and Jan 1998 for example: Two shutout Winters down here in the Mid Atlantic. Something that you have to consider about -NAO's is, although they have a 0.5 below normal temps correlation, they also have a 0.5 drier than average correlation. -NAO's have sometimes appeared during super-horrible patterns.