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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    January correlation following +PNA December's
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was impressed by how strong of a signal it was giving, as 40% of the dataset was being used (30/75 years) and it was giving +4-5 mean anomalies for a 5-month period. In Jan-Feb, the max went up to +6F. Something like 85% of the years followed the above average pattern for Jan-Feb. It has hit every month so far, I'd guess it favors a +NAO or +EPO/-PNA for Jan-Feb.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's mixing with rain. I'm probably right on the very edge, there were some good size flakes when I was driving on my road though! Car temp said 40F, and nothing is coming close to landing.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm actually about 1 mile north of Fallston. It's up a hill that goes about 30', so yeah probably 500'.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, big wet flakes mixing in. It only started when I pulled onto my road about 1 mile from my house.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have snow!
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd rather not have a big +PNA in December. Temps minus precip makes it a negative correlation in the Northeast. We had the same thing last December, then when the temp correlation goes from -0.1 (+10%) in Dec to -0.5 (+50%) in January, on Jan 1st last year, it switched to -PNA lol
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    At 500mb, +AAM favors a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and ridge south of Greenland. Not much of the EPO correlates with AAM, maybe it favors it being slightly positive.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just wouldn't expect a major Stratosphere warming. Also the November 50mb QBO is the highest ever since 1979, at +12.17 (#2 is +10.75).
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    This looks like a Strong El Nino December Very +AAM. It seems that those AAM graphs that people have been positing has some value, as this pattern only showed up in the last day or two.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have flurries with almost no clouds in the sky! How cool!
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's not impossible, but a +QBO/La Nina state does favor a cold 10mb about 75% of the time. Last year for example, we had -QBO/El Nino and there were 4 Stratosphere warmings. 2 years ago it was +QBO/La Nina and 10mb stayed mostly cold/ +QBO is strong right now. Here is what we've seen at 10mb for the start of cold season vs +QBO correlation
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have thundersnow! A bolt just hit and it's snowing moderately. Dusting on the mulch and driveway.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    54-55, 64-65, 83-84, 00-01. They were all below average temps, but I don't know about snow
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    The snow shower earlier today was better. This one mixed with rain
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's actually not true. 95-96 was a Weak Nina. Weak Nina's were actually a cold composite (random coincidence from not enough samples) until the early 2000s. Now I think 5 in a row have been warm.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice looking snow squall line about to pass through. 39F
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I actually had some cotton candy flakes mixing in. The squall line around 4am should be fun, models were showing rain but if this one is snow, it's probably going to be a wet snow.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've got a snow shower!
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's see if the +SOI pattern holds into January. Things become more uniform Nina in Jan-Feb vs Dec with indices such as that. I found it interesting that the composite was cold Dec in the East for +SOI, and it's been pretty strongly positive since Nov 10th. It's been a +PNA pattern, but the SOI for that little point in time favored it. If you put it all together, it's going to look at H5 like that Dec map.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    SOI has gone strongly positive for the first time since March 2023. 30-day is approaching +10, after being below +5 all year. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ The medium range pattern actually looks a lot like +SOI Dec in the PNA and NAO regions
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Also, a Natural Gas drop from 3.4 to 3.0 is implying a +NAO for January. I think the Crude Oil/Gasoline-Natural Gas spread is currently #2 lowest, behind only last year.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Matching analogs for a time period, taking them and seeing what they did in the future. We had a really strong +EPO pattern Dec 2023 - July 2024, so I went back to the 1940s and found 30 best matches to that pattern. Then when looking at what they did in the future, there was actually a +4F mean for much of the Midwest and East for the following November-March (2024-2025). A +4F signal for 40% of the dataset (30/75 years) over 5-months is strong.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wow! I'm impressed that it even seems to lead model changes/trends. I was noticing movements early in the day, then 18z and 0z would adjust. Now the long range is very warm, with a strong SE ridge for mid and possibly late December.
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