Stormchaserchuck1

From July 2020 to April 2023, we had 37 straight months of +SOI. This was associated with 3 years of La Nina conditions. June 1998 - April 1999 had 11 straight months of >1.0 SOI [CPC], which preceded multi-year La Nina conditions. March 1973 - October 1974 had 20 straight months of +SOI, which also preceded multi-year La Nina conditions. If the SOI doesn't rise in the coming months, Nino 4 SST is not really going to drop that much. This could ultimately form a subsurface warm pool in the western region, which would favor the rebound of the subsurface La Nina conditions in the Fall/Winter, and goes against the continuation of La Nina into next year.

13-14 also had a Strong Kelvin wave in the Winter, giving us Weak El Nino conditions in the subsurface. And the PDO was +. Like it or not, the PDO has correlated strongly to the PNA/EPO pattern for a long time. I think the "we're due for -EPO" could translate to the development of a subsurface El Nino during the Winter season, while the surface is Neutral. But we have a long way to go this year for that to be the case. The TAO/Triton maps are currently holding -5c anomalies under the central-subsurface.

ENSO climatology +years after Strong El Nino's, and +years after 4/5 La Nina years looks like this (blue line): Since the development of the internet, I have seen many things that had a ++time tendency to happen, happen closer to the now-time. Something that has +3-5 years likelihood to happen, I would say could start to impact years +1-2.. at least neutralizing the La Nina potential.

That's correct. We have also see the edges of a strong 10mb vortex, at 500mb flux a -PNA, during La Nina/+QBO's, and +PNA during El Nino/-QBO's over the last 20 years. Not really enough data yet to see if this is a correlated thing. But when we are getting -NAO periods in La Nina/+QBO, we are getting a very strong -PNA, and sometimes +epo, at the same time to counter it, during the cold season.

I would be surprised. With an active Solar Max, I think we are countering all that we saw from 2000-2022, and trying to flip the long term phase to El Nino. Nino 4 has maintained almost Weak El Nino status despite 5 months of cold subsurface anomalies, and now this is developing: This long term trend for Nino 4 to increase, (setting records pretty easily last year) is setting the tone, and will make it hard for another year of La Nina, in my opinion. Maybe borderline Weak-Nina at the max. We also haven't seen the Sun this active since the late-1990s: It has a 0.1 El Nino correlation.

1st real thunderstorm of the year looks to be moving in, and it's 72F.. that cap (CIN) has really been something else this year. If we are going to be above average in precip early August (like the CPC suggests) with a ridge building overhead, it better really rain a lot with this frontal boundary over the next few days..

I would take the under on that. You would go with 50" with a La Nina/+NAO? +NAO's are wetter for you than warmer, but that really only makes a +snow difference right in the middle of Winter, mid to late January. You may be able to luck into a snowy pattern if the subsurface Nina moderates, and we go Neutral, then maybe -EPO, but it's still kind of far out to see if that will happen.. A lot of the roll forwards are like +3 to +5F for you.

If we don't pick it up at the surface, I wonder if a warm pool will start to develop in the western subsurface region, below Nino 4, and the general subsurface "Moderate Nina" will start to moderate in the Fall.. Next years ENSO is pretty big for the direction we will be heading multi-year, and if we start to see the subsurface moderate in the Fall/Winter it would favor more +ENSO conditions next year.

The N. Pacific pattern will continue to correlate with the -200m subsurface. That will be the case until/unless the subsurface max moderates to ~-2c.

The pattern from the last few days of July, through the 1st week of August is one where temps bust warmer than forecasted. 18z GEFS has a very strong +EPO during this time, it may even snow in northern Alaska. That is hot, hot down here. I know I'm sort of saying the same thing in the last few posts, but the +epo may last through Aug 10th, which is very atypical..

There was a Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere warming over the last few weeks.. It usually lags with -AAO conditions, that could cause the mid-latitudes to cool. Kind of an A+B+C formula there, and over the tropics it's a little more inversely correlated, but that's what I could come up with..

Even in the 91-20 base period, we had more La Nina's than El Nino's.. I don't know why the difference

Maybe it's the 91-20 base period? They used to use 1950-1995 or 1950-2010 averages.

592-593dm ridge July 28-29, could make a run at 100.

ENSO subsurface is a very good tool. We have technologies that measure the ocean thermocline, and that increases the likelihood of given patterns. CPC has been doing extremely well on their monthly and seasonal forecasts over the past 1-2 years. But yeah, the neutralization of the climate is making consistency a top forecasting method these days. It's my opinion that classic methods are already taken into account, and factored into Oil prices, etc..

I'm not sure. This is what 1995's PDO looked like right now

Well this is what it looks like right now Nino 4 minus Nino 3 is a pretty high reading. That warmth near the Philippines will likely not cool in time for the Winter.. Since year 2000, Nino 4 (warm) minus Nino 1.2 (cool) has been in a league of its own.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was a near average to above snowfall season in the interior Northeast and Great Lakes.. +NAO actually has a higher +precip correlation than temps north of 40N. Especially if we are drier through the Fall.. since 2003, these dry periods have gone really wet after we started to approach drought conditions. It's happened about 20/20 times. I was saying this could also make the SE, US more prone to a Hurricane hit this year vs previous years. Coming up in late July will be our 6th moderate to strong +NAO period this year.. and I think we had like 2-3 in all of the past 4 years combined. I say that's important because it's changing the N. Atlantic SSTs to +nao roll-forwards. +NAO's favor storm tracks that go up through the Appalachians or Ohio Valley in the wintertime, Add a -PNA to that, and we could actually get some big storms riding up through the Midwest. The key I think will be if we tend toward +EPO or -EPO. +EPO is a big rainstorm pattern. -EPO will give some of you guys snow. Both are possible in La Nina, but there is a pretty strong correlation with -pdo and +epo.

If the ENSO subsurface weakens to Neutral in the Fall, it's not far off, although we have a -PDO and so far, +NAO N. Atlantic SST predictor index for the Winter, so I wouldn't use it..

Sometimes you have to be aware of a small sample size. I remember in the early 2000s, everyone would get excited about a Weak La Nina, because the historical map was cold. The meteorology is, X event correlates to Y. The stronger X is, the stronger Y, and the weaker X is, the weaker Y. But in the early 2000s, a small sample size showed we have a high likelihood of -NAO and I think some +PNA with Weak-Nina's, based on like 10 examples. (for map below "Weak Nina" is -0.5 to -1.0 DJF ONI). Then roll forward to the 2000s, and with more data added, the -PNA skew of the map evens out.. this is why I say beware of analogs behind sun phases, because a small sample, when there are so many things happening, could give a false result. It's more important to know the mechanism behind what it is. 2005+ Weak La Nina's (DJF ONI -0.5 to -1.0): Combined the two maps now looks like a La Nina, but it didn't in the early 2000s, leading to a lot of excitement over Weak La Nina's back then. I think I posted something earlier in this thread, where 13 Moderate/Strong ENSO events had a combined +100dm PNA/yr, and 8 Weak ENSO events had a combined +50dm PNA/yr. That's right where it should be, Now (but not 20 years ago).

Hot pattern returns last few days of July and into the 1st week of August, per 00z GFS ensembles.. +EPO/+NAO building after about July 27.. could get really hot.

CPC has been way more aggressive on La Nina call, and they are doing really good right now with monthly and seasonal forecasts, but Gawx is right, the surface is not really cooling and the SOI is deeply negative. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

There is a reason we only averaged 9 NS/yr in the Atlantic for the longest time. Add to it the fact that Africa has been super hot: And we don't have a lot of tropical convection right now. Some have suggested that the MJO becomes favorable in a few weeks, but there is a little bit of a model split. Atlantic SSTs and ENSO certainly still support a way above average season.

I'm starting to think the event may play out as more of an east-based event unless the Hadley Cells over the PDO region stretch it west. Last years El Nino started east-based then moved into record Nino 4 SSTs by the Fall, but the total event acted very east-based through the Winter. There may be a lag in effect lately. Some of those brutal warm Winters like 98-99 and 99-00 started west-based, vs progressing that way. I'd have to do the research to see if there is something to that..

69F here, it's actually a bit cool outside. Strong +EPO patterns often flip after a 7-12 day phase, this is what's happened the last few days.