Stormchaserchuck1

This should be an active season. The NOAA has issued a La Nina watch. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml That gives 55% of La Nina conditions developing by the Summer. ENSO subsurface often precedes surface conditions, and can indicate developing ENSO events. Latest TAO/Triton maps have an ENSO subsurface cold anomalies that are -3c in the central-region, which supports La Nina development. Here is a time sensitive map: January IRI models have a La Nina developing by the Hurricane Season: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table https://ibb.co/LhF2NYx Here is a climate model showing Strong La Nina development In 1995, the AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) index switched to positive, and since then it's been rising/still hasn't peaked. Atlantic Hurricane season activity is strongly correlated to the AMO, and Atlantic Hurricane season activity has also been in an upward incline since the 1995 AMO switch. Here is a smoothed graph of number of Tropical Storms by year: Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states: El Nino (8 years): 12.5 TS, 5.4 Hurr, 2.5 MH Neutral (10 years): 16.4 TS, 8.2 Hurr, 3.8 MH La Nina (10 years): 17.9 TS, 9.2 Hurr, 4.2 MH Here is a smoothed graph of average number of La Nina Named Storms per year, since 1995: In September 2022, the AMO peaked at an all time high of +0.662, and is still rising/in an inclining phase. I plotted monthly AMO numbers, up until the CPC last updated the dataset, which was January 2023: If you smooth out the index, it looks like a very clear rising phase is still underway: The Atlantic activity has been especially strong lately: - 3 of the last 4 years have had 20+ Named Storms - The average in the last 4 years is 21.5 Named Storms/year - 7 of the last 8 years have had 7+ Hurricanes - The average is 8.4 Hurricanes/year for the last 8 years I believe the PDO phase, where we are at a peak of -PDO cycle, with values only seen before in the mid-1950s, also favors greater than average Atlantic Hurricane activity. For having a Strong El Nino in the past year, the PDO didn't moderate that much. It's still deeply negative: Since 1995, PDO <-1 for Aug-Sept-Oct (15 years) averages 17.1 TS, 8.3 Hurr, 3.6 MH. Since 1995, PDO >-1 for Aug-Sept-Oct (14 years) averages 12.0 TS, 6.1 Hurr, 3.1 MH. Never too early to start discussing! Thoughts?

Didn't we get -45F in Montana in January? The wind chill at the Chiefs game was -24F.

No if the EPS was down lol

Yeah, I thought it was interesting that the El Nino was not causing a North Pacific low all of Apr-Nov. The signs were there, if I did a Winter forecast it would have been a neutral PNA, and maybe neutral NAO (N. Atlantic SST indicator May-Sept)/negative AO (Stratosphere warmings, strong -QBO), although the ENSO correlation does pick up from 0.2-0.3 all Summer-Fall to 0.5 to 0.6 in the Winter.. I think I was leaning on that development on posts on this board, but it was kind of silly looking back at it.. the Nino never acted more than a 0.5-0.6 ONI would in the N. Pacific. Since the STJ did get heavy, and the global precipitable water did blow out 15-16 (80% as #2 on record), I think it might be a PDO issue, like you say, or something in that area..

There does seem to be a general -NAO/bad Pacific correlation right now.

There is a +correlation between the central-subsurface ENSO region and PNA at 0time..

If you guys are really into weather for a scientific interest, you should look where the money is.. commodities market had a warm Winter signal all Winter long.. even the NOAA was too conservative in its warm Winter forecast.

Natural Gas is still just absolutely tanking.. got as low as 1.59 today. Believe it or not, going 1 year ahead (for Winter 2024-25) doesn't have a very high correlation: Long term graph since 1995, https://ibb.co/4td0sCG Lowest years the Winter before (2012, 2016, 2020) for the following winter: https://ibb.co/Kzxhtc8 Minus the highest years (-2008, -2022): https://ibb.co/kGxqBD3 There is even a -AO tendency with 3 cold waves around it, in these 5 analogs, and +pna signal, and that's colder, so not a real strong indicator going 1 year out...

Here is a time sensitive TAO/Triton subsurface anomaly map With a -3c pocket currently in the central subsurface, this does favor the transition into La Nina. Here is CPC's latest update: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Let's just say models going into a Stronger La Nina next year is interesting lol Natural Gas vs Oil/Gasoline is at an all time low.

This is an amazing base state that we are coming out of. Since satellite record in 1948 there is no other 2-month composite for a 6-year period that has an anomaly this strong. #2 is over the NAO region in the '60s and has only 75% the strength of this N. Pacific High pressure anomaly. LR models are showing it again, despite this being a Strong El Nino year. https://ibb.co/5187RC7

Just ask me to clarify if you have a question. I like to keep everything along the lines of scientific reasoning, so it's an unbiased input that people should be able to understand (because it's mutually external lol). They can also just simply say I agree, or disagree. You should be able to see the scientific point, and know if you are progressing toward an answer. Feel free if you ever need clarity. I learn by writing things out, also.

Wow.. even the PNA/EPO region in the Pacific is close to opposite.

We are fighting a really strong multi-year base state. From 2018-2023, the average 500mb anomaly of the PNA region in the N. Pacific Ocean in February is >+150dm average. Since 1948, the only other 500mb anomaly for a consecutive month over a 6-year period is a -NAO signal at +105-120dm back from '64-69 (80% of that recent anomaly). Even March has started to trend toward this strong -PNA in recent years. So when the weeklies, etc, all were showing a cold +PNA pattern, it was suspect because the global trend was much different. They were showing Nino-climo, and you heard it all Winter by everyone "El Nino's are better after Jan 15th", "Most snow in 2nd half of Winter in Nino's", etc. There just really isn't enough data, and unscientific basis for why December should be a warm month and February so cold. No one makes the meteorological connection.. so we broke that ENSO-anomaly this Winter. That's all.

Believe it or not, the JFM ONI last year was -0.4, and we had net warm subsurface ENSO water, starting in January. We did have a La Nina earlier in the year, but for the Winter it was not "strong".

Yeah during +3std +AO. Strong Nina/+QBO strengthens the 10mb vortex about 70% of the time, just like Strong Nino/-QBO weakens the 10mb vortex 70-75% of the time. That 4-day example this year is 3:1 more likely to be an atmospheric state next Winter, that's all.

It's a decadal La Nina-state. You are calling it -PDO, but the same extent of Pacific High pressure has hit the Hadley-mid latitude Cell in the southern hemisphere as the northern hemisphere.

We did get 3 Stratosphere warmings. When there isn't much data, it helps to know what the main function of a thing is. The QBO/ENSO hits the 10mb level with stronger or weaker vortex, and it's a strong effect historically. We hit that effect this year, but things like Hadley Cell expansion and the multi-year La Nina state did not allow us to fully maximize that favorable system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_cloud Big observable visual differences in the last few decades. Just pay attention. Cumulus is a sign of the lower atmosphere holding more ice crystals.

Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago. Kind of the same as how storms used to climb 40,000-50,000 ft in the atmosphere in the 1990s, but now they mostly make it to 15,000-20,000 ft. And everyone just blankly says its climate change. The recent happenings (cloud formation) are more conducive of a +PNA, I guess (more pressure systems)?

The clouds have been A LOT fluffier. low atmosphere cumulus. They are out now, they have been out just about every day with clouds for the last 2 years. That's a sign of near-ground ice crystals. But 2013-mid 2018 was really bad on the opposite side of this, all high atmosphere cirrus and stratus, so it takes time to change the long term state imo.

With a +QBO 90% likely, no less. That with Stronger La Nina favors +AO conditions, and I'm just saying the last time we had that happen it hit 80 degrees in January.. that's kind of a baseline, although of course it could get cooler/colder at times.

La Nina is not a function of climate change, and that is what the problem recently has been. https://ibb.co/34tJQXn

Models adjusted more than usual. They had a ridiculous strong 50/50 low signal at 10-13 day lead, that is now a High pressure anomaly on models for the same time. There was also a big N. Pacific Low that was suppose to develop and sustain, and it's pretty weak now. I've seen what happens a lot, is when the upper latitudes don't match what the models show in the CONUS (they never really showed big cold/trough over the EC), something, somewhere will adjust (lately it's been adjusting warm). Euro weeklies have been very little better than trash. I continue to stand by that.. they got January wrong by 4-5 degrees, and now the same thing is happening in late February and March. The LR images brooklynwx kept posting, through March 20th, are going to come to nowhere close to verifying, especially over the Pacific Ocean! NG futures (where the money is) was 5x more accurate all Winter long.

I ended up with less than 1". Really bad call saying that WSW's would go up, up here based on the RAP and Hrr consistently giving 4-6". It wasn't really cold enough in the end, and the precip under achieved a little (here).