Stormchaserchuck1

I still don't like the 500mb look over the Pacific for this storm, on the ensembles. In DC/Balt's greatest snowstorms, you have a strong trough over the Gulf of Alaska or PNA region. Models are showing a ridge there. And there is a weak +WPO over the Bering Strait. That pattern could pop a slight SE ridge or flatten the pattern out a little bit, which isn't being shown now, and I think there will be mixing issues, if not possibly rain. The 500mb doesn't match DC/Baltimore snowstorm composite in the Pacific Ocean for the time of this storm.

It evolves different when the storm moves east. I don't like that Pacific look with a flat ridge under +WPO. It's not a real strong pattern, but the pattern does de-evolve as you go forward from when the 500mb low is in Mexico lol several days earlier.

The -NAO isn't holding like 09-10 and the Pacific pattern is kind of breaking down.. I wouldn't hold too high hopes for this next one, there is a chance it could be rain

A little too close to warm air for my liking.. models are usually slightly cold bias at this range, unless you have a killer upper latitude index pattern like tomorrow's

9z RAP, 12-15" snow depth in DC. 3rd run in a row it's showed this. Maybe it's just a bad model.

6z GFS remains dry and south.. gets DC to 6". Seems to snow quite a bit in Richmond. Big differences between GFS and NAM

Ravens outscoring their opponents 135-43 in the last 4 games, 2 of those playoff teams.

Good research. The 18z and 00z GFS ensembles backed off on the 3-contour +WPO pattern it was showing earlier today. Keeps a little more of a -NAO ridge in over the top too. This one is actually the "coming out of strong -NAO" storm, and it looks like it has a great 50/50 low. I'm not sold on it not mixing though..

It's the "lifting out of strong -NAO" storm, and a great 50/50 low. I was too early to call it for a warmer storm and probably rain.. the 18z and 00z GFS ensembles backed way off the +WPO it was showing earlier today. Enough of a western -NAO ridge holds overhead too... it's not going to be as cold as the coming storm, but will at least be a close call for wintery wx. The 50/50 low suggests it has the potential be another major one.. I'm still not 100% sold on it not mixing though.

They may want to upgrade this "10% chance"

Cold night.. high rates likely. Southern areas may stay frozen longer than the RAP/NAM have Richmond, VA is at 18F?

07z RAP at 21hr is pretty wow

Low is currently 1003mb. 6z NAM had 1005mb, 6z Hrr had 1002mb fwiw

Moving into some pretty legit cold air

Never expect a wet storm in the Midwest to dry up as it reaches the coast.. -NAO blocks aren't powerful enough to do that anymore..

6z NAM holding onto an 8-10" max around Baltimore.. pretty far north though. South of DC does not get that much snow on nam I'm at 19F

I could see other models juicing up a little bit though.

DC-Annapolis, most of Delaware, 15-18" snow depth on 6z Hrr. Anyone know why it's so extreme?

6z Hrr has 12" snow depth for DC by hr33. Could be a 15"'er. Anyone know why the RAP and HRR are on this page, 12-15" snow depth is pretty significant - although the mesoscale of those models beyond shorter ranges isn't good, I might expect other models to juice up a little in the morning.

I think the problem is that the cold air might be getting cut off in Canada. The -NAO block is lifting out, and the +WPO ridge may extend south. The hope is that cold air from before holds, but usually when something is 7-8 days out those kind of things don't hold with a changing Pacific pattern..

That +WPO is underestimated at this time.. It usually trends warmer, unless that 3-contour trough over the Bering Strait backs off. I see the 11th as a rainstorm threat for NYC.

In the Pacific you have a ridge under a trough. Hard to get trough to dig too far in the SE with that pattern. It seems the cold air is becoming "stale" at that point, and usually in future runs the whole pattern catches up to what's happening in now time.

Kind of hoping that the cold air from before stays in place for the storm.. -NAO block is gone now, neutral, with some lingering ridging over Canada. I've seen this play before, it evolves toward the upper latitude pattern in the coming days. The +WPO Canadian ridge is going to extend south and kind of cutoff the cold air, unless it evolves away from +WPO in the coming days..

Pacific pattern has really evolved in the last few days to now a -PNA/+WPO look for the storm. The pacific pattern takes precedence as effect over the Atlantic, as the last 10+ years have shown clearly. Beyond that, it evolves to an Aleutian ridge. That's a -PNA pattern, with now a trough digging into the NW in the long range. Will be interesting to see if this favorable Pacific only lasts a few more days like what is being modeled. Models were super cold for the time period a short time ago, it was a question of if the 11th storm would merge with the Polar Vortex lol

My call is it's a rainstorm for Jan 11th.