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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Check out how, as a 2nd point, the Hadley cell expanding is sending ridging all the way up through the NW Pacific Ocean. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html
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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to ORH_wxman's topic in Climate Change
Ridging in the NW Pacific Ocean is reflecting a very far north Hadley Cell. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html -
Really beautiful Spring day today, everything is out in full bloom, and this has the fullness/broadness/depth that I can't remember happening this early. 96-97 was an early bloom, maybe close to equal, I lived in Baltimore city at the time and flowers/leaves were trying to come on by March 15-25. I remember rooting against the snowstorm March 31st that was suppose to give us 12"+ originally, it ended up being all rain based on a last second move, I dropped some of my interest for snow at that point. The NAO is at +600dm right now and you can tell that it doesn't even matter, as life is bursting through, to the tops of trees, it seems from the ground. It's been 55-60 degrees for 3 consecutive days under pacific-atlantic-Polar blocking. last few days of Feb/1st week of March was really "naturally warm" now, at this time, i've noticed, sun radiates brightness really warm.
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El Nino 2023-2024
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This configuration is very -AAM at +Day 15, so the N. Hemisphere taking on El Nino-base state isn't happening. https://ibb.co/JxXZ1Tw -
2021-2022 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The western subsurface waters are really warm so it has plenty of fuel... It waned a little bit but March isn't late for a Strong Nino to still take hold. What I worry about is this constant -PNA in the N. Pacific, which models have even at D-15 now. Usually there is a small, but decent correlation between developing ENSO events and N. Pacific pattern in the late Winter. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
More of a -PNA on the 0z NAM.. bigger SE ridge. After it was so warm today in already the pattern change, this is par I guess, it's hard to get so warm without a -PNA north Pacific ridge. models are a little behind in this regard. We still have time to trend imo. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Out to 120.. looks like we want to build a CAD wedge to plenty of blocking to the north.. like I said, differences between NAM and GFS in the Pacific is that there's still plenty of time to trend. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Here you go guys.. good step 120hrs.. fine -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
18z GFS still way different from the NAM out west, will need to be worked out. https://ibb.co/sscbm9y big difference for 69hr -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
After today 60 degrees.. it's going to be a colder pattern. Models are running a lot like that, so I don't see why the SE ridge wouldn't trend less with blocking to the north.. It's usually easier said than done: 1 pattern is greater than another pattern, but I think this gravitating south to the gulf stream could make sense. If we can get this storm to happen on the 11th or before we should be fine.. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
In the 60s, these patterns used to really deliver. 18z NAM looks good, imo. It's really favorable in the upper levels so I'm not going away. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
If we can get this thing to come earlier, it would be better. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Stronger/more amped WC energy 0z https://ibb.co/5B9dBFg Stronger -NAO.. slightly sw pac ridge, but it's oriented more toward -epo, and a +pna trough looks like it's trying to undercut the ridge vs 18z -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
WOW 18z NAM vs 12z GFS https://ibb.co/0shS616 -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
18-19 Weak Nino didn't do good enough.. We had a -PNA that Winter and near +200dm in February! We need a healthy Moderate or Strong Nino imo. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Ensembles look great.. we still have plenty of time for an adjustment. Models will have to kill the -EPO imo for a cutter through the Rockies/Midwest. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Well the Pacific changes conditions today. By Monday, it's full on +pdo(+pna/-epo). Models seem to have been over initializing current conditions, so let's see if that changes anything. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Stronger +PNA Low and higher ridge into Alaska.. funny. At this point, something will need to be worked out between the two (SE ridge 2nd part). They are like slowly organizing an amplified pattern slowly... -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
It kind of seems like models are being "lazy" in my opinion, over amplifying the energy because it can't handle the heavily amplified new pattern.. maybe the EPO area will adjust on future model runs? -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Would have to suppress the SE ridge if that holds.. maybe the energy splits? Pretty wild to go SE ridge when this is dominating and -NAO too. It can happen, but something might need to be worked out. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Look at that storm! STJ amped east and west to hold its energy as a general pattern.. check -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
The pattern is a little more uniform though. -
March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
STJ continues to be really amplified at 98hr.