Stormchaserchuck1

When looking at medium/long term guidance... realize that the H5 anomaly for our biggest storms, or 8"+ storms, has just as strong of an anomaly over the eastern Pacific, 50/50 low region, and west-based -NAO (extending toward the Hudson Bay)... I was pointing out that we only had 1/3 areas for this storm, and just having a trough under a block without Pacific or Atlantic help leads to more margin of error as you progress toward the event. Those 3 other N. Hemisphere anomalies are a big deal for us getting a major snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic. Keep it in mind. We could have done it for this storm, but it was more of a threading the needle situation.

lol I see a lot of -PNA in our future Actually maybe this is the kind of pattern that will stick around next Winter. Lately they have been coming in pairs..

lol 1/50 chance.. run this through 50 times at it goes 8"+ once? Maybe not, but I have seen -AO come north at the last minute. Maybe a 0.5% chance.

Jan 25, 2000 had a similar arctic block as this.. remember, the AO is about -5 right now. When it's this cold, Im currently at 19F, storms do have a higher percentage to bust high.

18z GEFS drops blue's over us 4 times in the medium-long range https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html I mean, it might snow, but I wouldn't say anything too significant I guess. Let's also see if it holds. -EPO is a good pattern, showing up at Days 9-15.

I probably wouldn't make any snow calls, but it is going to be hard to warm up much.

-AO popping back on models (Arctic circle). Transitions to -EPO. We also have +PNA because of the MJO. This Winter has wanted to stay cold.

A pretty explainable sequence... A Scandinavia/NW Russia block happened, registering over +5820dm in mid-Winter. That area, especially Scandinavia is a loading pattern for -AO.. That -AO took. And is now -5! Due in part to +QBO, the AO is now expected to rise back to +2.5 That is a +7.5 index move in less 1 week! +QBO coupled with Weak Nina favors a cold 10mb, which goes with +AO at a Day+0 correlation. Due in part because of the record QBO, the AO is racing back to positive, and will be one of the most extreme short term moves on record [CPC].

I only had 10" and my average is 30". Don't know how that average is so high, but I did have 125" in 02-03. It also did snow flurry more 19 times this Winter.

Yeah an above average temp pattern looks highly probable for Texas in early March with those upper latitude patterns. Save your money up! The La Nina is still holding on and that means the Midwest could have an active tornado season this Spring, too.

18z GEFS has a real warm pattern setting up at h384, early March.. early Spring-like if it holds with -PNA and +NAO

03z SREF

Yeah it's amazing that models can miss things like that at that range, but I've seen it a number of the times in the last few years. N. Hemisphere larger 500mb pattern likely wins again, I was saying to see a deep coastal low riding up from the Gulf we probably need a NE Pacific trough, which is a actually a weak high pressure right now, and goes with what you guys are saying about how hard it is to a MECS in La Nina.. the pattern is actually a +NOI, or +NPH (North Pacific High), which is in part a circulation of La Nina. https://ibb.co/DfGZyQjg https://ibb.co/gLrqM6cz I wouldn't be surprised if Richmond may have p-type issues honestly.

Marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow.

Maybe instead of looking at how it did at 120hrs, see what the storm moving so far North means with regards to the future.. we have a real shot at thunderstorms tomorrow. The warm sector of this storm is awesome! They say swings happen and "nothing is impossible" but the somewhat slight flex of -pna here today is for a flatter, and possibly slightly north, following storm..

All it says is "Haha". No other options.

How do you see who weenies you?

Pretty major severe wx outbreak going on from the Gulf of Mexico to Kentucky. I said this before, It's part of the weak -pna pattern that has a weak High pressure off the west coast. Downstream that leads to a less amplifed wave, moving more W->E vs S->N for Feb 20th.

That "EE" rule has been around for a while.. And we've seen it play out a number of times. Truth is the NAM (ETA) sucks as a model. It has no actual accuracy that is better than other models when with the Euro.. the NAM at 60+ hours is usually more ampled/NW, and that models usually trend this way in general is where the rule comes from. That and the Euro's accuracy.

You should have kept your other post about positive tilt in the gulf.. don't let 1 model run deter you. Especially when the Hemispheric 500mb pattern is not ideal... now we can get an amplified storm under a block, that part is good .. -AO extending down into the Hudson bay, but pieces 2 and 3 (Atlantic and Pacific troughs) are off.. that gives more margin for error and variance in models until the day off.. more of a "threading the needle" situation.

What your missing is that the trough is flatter on models than the Richmond snowstorm composite.. less neg tilted. That's the big difference. It's still likely a snowstorm but not a historical analog. You are thinking it means north, and it may, but really a flatter solution is the bigger thing.

I said it wouldn't be a bomb and would be flatter... reason is there are big differences in the Pacific off the west coast. We have a weak High pressure there, vs east-based-posPNA that a lot of analogs had. That Gulf of Alaska trough digs waves downstream, and you can get a Miller A type system.. that's not the pattern we have for this wave. Little chance it goes back to a bomb/blizzard, unless the Pacific pattern changes.

You're right -- it's 1/4-5, 1980. https://www.glenallenweather.com/upload/richmondclimate/richsnow/GreatestSnows.pdf Here's the fix

Yeah, with the MJO. Scandinavian ridge is building another -NAO bout potentially in the long range, but the +QBO/Weak Nina impact on the Stratosphere has been strong this Winter -- it's been hard to sustain a -AO with such a cold 10mb layer. It's actually been a surprise we've had so many -AO periods, but they generally aren't sustainable with such a fast flow in the upper atmosphere. Fits the seasonal trend of late - we are getting -NAO's, about average to even slightly above average, but they are in continuum less than average.

Warm pattern setting up in the medium-range.. Feb 20 is probably going to be our last wintery threat for a while.