Stormchaserchuck1

My guess would be that we have a window mid-Late February, the dates when last year's -PNA peaked.. March is not going to snow probably, as I am looking at -PNA for March

Football is really mechanical if you watch too much of it (NFL at least).

KC is really 1:1.8 odds to Super Bowl, when Vegas has them right now at 1:4.5. PHL is the only team in the league that would possibility contest. Bet KC, with PHL as a security play on the SB imo (I don't know how bad Hurt's is hurt.).

Moist

These snowdepth maps are really good for all generalities, I've learned. Since 2018, they have verified I think everytime, or 90% vs model p-type radar plots of the same model. Shows a pretty clear-long miss.

2 blizzards in Flagstaff (warm subsurface)

The problem is that the technology of internet is much greater than moderators and what most people are not lazy to do. My .02

Yeah, this is our window.. 4th sd -anomaly over Greenland, 4 ridges spanning from it, during +PNA Pacific-PNA pattern reverses, model at this range is 0.85 correlation gets worse (orientation of -PNA)

The worst I've ever seen them was Sedona, Arizona. +2,000 in the sky

Check out how the PNA changes right when there is a 500mb vortex over Greenland (+PNA-+NAO). As long as this condition continues, it's not really going to snow in the Mid Atlantic.

just wont stop snowing everyone knows why I like 09-10

1997, 2001 analogs (97-98/01-02). Love the -NAO in Dec when it's wetter lol

I would bet on +PNA conditions in April, and -PNA default in March, and maybe something resembling March31-Apr1 1997, but that's "3rd position point" of tampering/\/. lol(the storm correlation if it happens) (^Nevermind +PNA March-Apr-May 2023, we had a strong N. Pacific Ocean 500mb vortex last March-April-May, which I think is this emerging El Nino already considered. [Extra point, I haven't been too scientifically oriented.] can obviously do better...

We are getting warm to near record warm in the western ENSO subsurface now.. this is *C, so if it's *F, that's about +10F, or 10degrees above average.. subsurface water normal temperature of 55 degrees would be about 65 degrees now. Differences in the N. Pacific pattern happen starting around 170W and -200m, to 120W and -100m.. that region is overall negative anomalies right now (favoring RNA, -PNA) Only years that were this extreme in the subsurface were 1997..March. and 1982 Jan/Feb. If I'm wrong, someone correct me (memory from ~5+ years ago). I think this favors a Strong El Nono, with 70% chance of overall El Nino conditions later this year. But we are hitting strong -PNA in the first few days of February on LR models, so an atmospheric correction (nolag) has occurred?

Everything to Dec19-29 will adjust (I've been looking at 4 model runs a day for 20 years). +PNA Dec19-29, will give us a less pronounced -EPO, and because the Atlantic has been negatively correlating, probably less of a -NAO, although we have developed a -NAO tendency around Christmas since 2014, happening 7/8 years, with an average +120dm anomaly, vs the -60dm +NAO for Dec-Mar in the combination of those 8 Winter's. (re: 18z GFS ensembles) I think the -NAO tendency for Christmas 12/25.. will adjust to -EPO/+PNA, so watch for that gravity. 12/25 -EPO/+PNA and 12-19to29 +PNA.. besides that the rest of the N. Hemisphere pattern likely will flatten out/neutralize, LR models for the next 4-8 days will adjust accordingly<-.

fear not.. Dec19-29 is coming

I didn't even know it was rain. We average 3" of snow in December, so that's important to remember..

Pacific pattern flip We'll start tracking snowstorms once the Pacific gets out of this -PNA+EPO.

ENSO is kind of getting broadbrushed by greater global happenings. In the subsurface there is a +5-7f warm pool, when this moves across 180W, we usually go +PNA. This will be 3/3 indicators for the Dec19-29 period (another is global 40-45N consistency since Aug). Another is the strong reverse correlation of -0.70 to -0.90 of last years conditions: And last year we had our strongest -PNA on record for 10 days. That's like -0.90 correlation. I like that the STJ is wetter than normal. That's not that common for a La Nina, but that Kelvin wave hitting the central subsurface could be correlated (last years Kelvin wave was drier). I hate -EPO now as it's High pressure in the north, and today we have +500dm -NAO and record lows by 4-5 degrees. they eventually skew the overall pattern warmer. (Sorry I hate wasting my energy.)

The PNA will go.. Positive Dec19-29, watch models skew/trend

I wouldn't be surprised if 14-15, and 13-14, miss.

TGF Britian and France!

Oh, Earth, is your reality internal or external!

I'm thinking of the days when LES was more common. Pretty amazing how warm it gets in -NAO. We have a +500mb extreme block. 570dm up into Greenland. Greenland.. Iceland.. something is suspicious huh

What was the Winter Boston got 2"? 2018-19? or 17-18?