Stormchaserchuck1

Check out my research from last Winter as to what a +PNA Dec means for the rest of the Winter. (last year was the #1 strongest PNA on record, per 500mb) 20 analogs, that came out at +100dm -PNA for, Jan and Feb! same 20 analogs came out ta a +70dm +NAO for Jan and Feb! The NAO is probably of more significance because same things correlate the same going forward, but the NAO is not so connected... so, if the PNA comes out like 18z GFS ensembles have, making it a top 5 Dec PNA on record, it's a strong +NAO, -PNA signal for Jan-Feb combined. That's just roll-forward, but I was surprised how well it worked out last year.. The +100/+70-2months dominated other things that were conflicting indicators in early January, like ENSO developments.

Notice how LR models skew reacts strongly to current conditions?

18z GFS ensembles looks really bad in the ER (extended range) day 15>beyond (trend)

Wet pattern, El Nino STJ. ladada

Yeah, the subsurface is really warm A lot of the analog roll forward I did gave us 50% chance of Nino next year, 25% Neutral, 25% Nina(it's like 10% because we are 0/7 in 4th year Nina's). We'll see, events have been getting depressed in general, defaulting to 1998- cold period (-PDO) base state. ^The mid-subsurface at -200m actually correlates directly with the 500mb N. Hemisphere pattern, and is a reason, I think why, we are so wet.

Importance of the PNA.. I keep harping on how big of a miss this is, because of how dry -NAO/-AO's typically are We are entering a very wet pattern at just the right time(NAO/AO), which is contrary to what's normal.

Here we go.. look at all this moisture

super positive.. #2 on record. 95-96 was after 6 straight +ENSO years 90-95 (record of this century +streak, also 89-90 and 96-97 were both -Neutral, but we didn't go La Nina 8/9 years (95-96 the exception) 89-98, which is also the longest streak of the last 200 years). After we were most negative ENSO 70-76, 76,77, 77-78, 78-79 were the coldest Winter's on record. 78-79 still ranks as #1.

Didn't you have 90" of snow those years? (I wasn't here)

MacDonald and Case[24] reconstructed the PDO back to 993 using tree rings from California and Alberta. The index shows a 50–70 year periodicity but is a strong mode of variability only after 1800, a persistent negative phase occurring during medieval times (993–1300) which is consistent with La Niña conditions reconstructed in the tropical Pacific[25] and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States.[26] 0/7 I think 3rd year La Nina's going into the 4th year, since the 1800s.

We can do it when ++NAO (13-14, 14-15, 92-93, 93-94). PNA is pretty untouchable.

-PNA is saturated now. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html Usually when it's switching from long term +PNA to -PNA, we can get colder, but not this time.. look forward to a rainy 15-20 days.

Look at this wave train Maybe someone could run stats on how it goes PNA negative/neutral, coming out of >4SD -NAO (rain/snow?). Because the moisture will be there.

STJ is really active for 10-12 days with retrograding NW Atlantic low.. probably all rain imo, pretty high confidence lock, but something we have not seen in a while(such a wet pattern).

After our last two, only two, strong -PNA/-NAO's in long-wavelength season, since Jan 2013.. it gets cold (high pressure upper atmosphere lol)

Can you believe this +5-7F subsurface cancels itself out in the global + wavepatterns? (little relevance)

Pacific and Atlantic have been matching too, at -0.70 correlation. A 4-5SD -NAO is going to be 3SD -PNA (5-6SD -NAO is going to be a 4SD -PNA) (3SD -NAO is going to be a 2SD -PNA, 0time). No snow for us for a while, at least through 384hr.

STJ is actually really juicy

I'd go with no snow through 384hr.. Higher chances next December is +PNA, at least. lol

I like the -AO that's been building, especially over Russia, since August.

It doesn't snow when the PNA is moderate to strongly negative recently, that's our worse pattern, even with >2SD -NAO. MR/LR pattern reminds me a lot of March 2018: Good news is it was followed by a cooler April. Let's see what happens. Second recent case of -PNA, -NAO was Jan 2021 cold again followed that's it since 2013.. as far as analogs go.

The last 3 +QBO/La Nina Winter's have been -NAO December seems to be dominant/middle

Looks like it's turning positive. Reminds me of 09-10 actually.

Look at how wet the Pacific got at hr384 6z

Look how wet the Pacific/STJ is at the end of this run.