Stormchaserchuck1

You guys should know what to look at in trend. There is a reason the NWS identifies index regions as special in their analysis, because these often don't fluctuate as much, and dictate future model trends. You would think the model would be updated by now but it's not

The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding on

It seems to be like an extended warm front https://ibb.co/Mck2C4B And do you know what else, it's going to warm up after the storm because of what's coming in from the Pacific

Really just hard to hit one blank when coming off of 7 years of very below average. We found that ENSO is a continuum vs something that reverses.

The EPS showed us getting snow a lot last year. I think they had a few long range patterns with +PNA and -EPO but it might be because they are based on '91-20 normals. I'm sorry for going against the majority, but I don't think the EPS is that great. I think its idea comes solely from demand (good ECMWF model).

I'm just happy in the possibilities of what to experience in the playoffs, the Chiefs aren't doing well. It's a pretty easy league this year, overall. Baltimore definitely seems primed to win the SB. I remember obviously having that knowing about the '2000 squad, and the '2012 team when they started winning in the playoffs I knew they were unstoppable. Same kind of feeling this year. 2019, there were a lot of question marks/weak spots. No weak spots this year.

'96 was my favorite but I'm young. I like the colder dry snows and legit blizzard conditions. I feel like they should happen more often. It's important to remember that since 1998, the -PNA has been the pattern as much as 62/38, so it's something cyclical, and not like GW-driven. We've had a La Nina base state almost 2:1. I personally think right now, in this little bit of time, +NAO and +PNA is our best potential pattern for snowfall, The W->E (anomaly) nature of the pattern is moreso than N->S, and +nao's are wetter.

DCA +4.5 NYC +4.2 BOS +3.4 ORD +2.0 ATL+4.8 IAH +4.4 DEN +0.5 PHX -1.0 SEA -2.0

Good post.. It's just too warm. Because the source is in the N. Pacific ocean, the odds of a favorable trend to the end are pretty low (the region doesn't fluctuate as much). Add to the fact that this Pacific region has hooked up with a SE ridge more than normal over the past few Winters (despite -NAO) and you have a real "problem". Jan correlation is also +53%. This may end up raining all the way to State College. In the end of the 18z GEFS we have that strong -PNA look, and it's a pretty good anomaly projection for 15-16 days away on the mean.. linking with now a trough over the NW and it's going to take at least a little time to move away from that pattern. It's not going to snow in that pattern I think. My analogs showed that when we have a dominant PNA that changes, we hang warm for a few days after. I've said Jan 20th before something favorable develops, but it could be later.

It looks like the long term Stratosphere warming is no longer projected to happen. The problem I think is following the EPS when it has not been a great model. The consecutive runs showing big anomalies was the indicator, but the GEFS now has net negative 10mb anomalies in a week. We are still posting +valid warming results in the CDC daily plot for the 4th consecutive day on 12-29 https://ibb.co/zJYVh8m 12 days is what's need to count in my stats as a valid Stratosphere warming event, for the valid NAO correlation.

Ravens came in as only a 3 point favorite at home.. for some reason Vegas doesn't like Lamar Jackson. I think it was easy to tell that the offense has been on fire

You don't mind that N. Pacific high? It's been overpowering the NAO since 2018-19. I know it is not as strong on model but it still has been holding more weight. look at the N. American pattern starting to flatten out a bit too with more of a SW trough.

Then Det going for 2 when they have 10yds to go (which is like a 30% probability). This is after they didn't go for it 4th and goal from the 4 when the game was 10-10. That's why it's hard to watch football: There is a site called advancedNFLstats and it calculates the odds of everything, and basically teams are almost always wrong not going for it on 4th down.

I'm just saying, I'm 10/10 for seeing that pattern in the Pacific at Day 7 and the storm going to rain or phased out.

They basically went with an El Nino and so far it's looking like we are going opposite in the Pacific Ocean (at least through Jan 15th). I think a good model could have predicted that (because it's pattern persistence).

Science is not really emotional. It's not hard to be objective. People just worship models, no one or nothing can do better, and they aren't even that great if you know what you're looking at.. climo or persistence has worked better lately, don't you dare tell that the EPS or Euro weeklies are not that good lol.

Believe it or not, The waves of +PNA/GOA low correlate downstream with our temperature the most in January, and the least in December. This is why it was amazing to have an Aleutian/GOA low in December, and right around Jan 1-2 the pattern dissolves. https://ibb.co/mvGCw9F https://ibb.co/82Wq2kB 15% correlation in December. 53% correlation in January. On Jan 1-2, the N. Pacific low dissolved and giving way to a High! Now it's the opposite effect

I'm surprised we didn't squash the SE ridge in mid-March because the Pacific ridge extended up to -EPO. Must be because it's in the later part of the -PNA phase/cycle https://ibb.co/SRLw91H https://ibb.co/QX0zz36

https://ibb.co/BtJGb7J March 2018 was the last time we saw -NAO-based trough in the East in the Winter months.

I've been telling everyone "not through Jan 15th" (more realistically looks like through the 20th, then we'll probably change).

In 7 days it posts a big Aleutian ridge. This has been overwhelming the NAO just constantly since 2018-19

These setups don't trend favorably inside 7 days. We would need a big Pacific pattern change.

I don't see this being snow at all in verification https://ibb.co/gTZh53c Pattern is building from the Pacific. looks like the GFS gets luckily with the timing but you see there is a 2nd low developing to the west of the system.

12z Euro actually shows us getting some flurries Monday with a clipper. That's what I'm most excited about. Cool pics guys!

Good post Don. Not many examples, but -PDO/El Nino December's are very close to verification for the month: https://ibb.co/yfBVPXY https://ibb.co/tmFPSmv January of the 4 analogs I came up with: https://ibb.co/2nnqHrG https://ibb.co/sR01NT1 Talk about getting it coincidentally right for half of the Winter!