Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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CPC's PNA index is a little weird, DJFM 23-24 was 4/4 +PNA months, totaling +2 and the overal H5 for it was a +45dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands... kind of a big difference. In Jan 2025 there was a +200dm ridge and they were saying it was +PNA.
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Closer to neutral doesn't mean -PNA but there is a tendency in those two months.
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We have been in a pattern in Feb-March since 2018 - easily the most +dm on record for a 8-year consecutive period. It will be really interesting to see how this Winter goes in Feb-March in the PNA region - models have like -150dm. My guess would be closer to neutral.
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Yeah nice opposite correlation the last 3 years lol. Meanwhile the CANSIPS can't even get days 1-5 right.
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^Much higher correlation in the Southern Hemisphere Winter, wonder if it means Northern Hemisphere Winter will respond more -
Just brutal
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Look at how bad it did south of the Aleutian islands That's why seasonal models showing a -200dm +PNA this Feb I don't think will be right. The pattern hasn't been happening recently.
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3 days of <-30 SOI in a row 18 Sep 2026 1010.91 1014.40 -34.52 -18.69 -21.31 17 Sep 2026 1011.10 1014.00 -31.02 -18.48 -21.12 16 Sep 2026 1011.63 1015.00 -33.81 -18.19 -20.84 September is going to finish pretty strongly -SOI, making May-Sept one of the more -SOI periods on record. Here is what follows the following year (+16 months): [map default is +correlation, so for -SOI it's opposite]
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Let's hope the SE Canada ridge doesn't build in October like it did in 2023 CPC's October forecast released today
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Crazy that 23-24 Winter had an overall -AO DJFM in the mean, with 3/4 months negative. Was the warmest Winter on record for US Actually since 22-23 every Winter Dec-Mar in the mean has been -ao, albeit slightly.
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Bel Air 15 minutes away had 3". A little bit of elevation made a big difference! That was the storm where the sky lit up 20+ times with green lightning flashes.
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I had a surprise 7" snow early last December.
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lmao I like the 4980dm that's happening over the Arctic right now. There will be -AO periods this Winter.
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Historically warm Nino 1+2 in Oct doesn't look like that. Winter, yes, not october based on the last 73 years. I'd say the H5 model you are posting is more opposite than similar in the n. pacific
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CPC going with it
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That's a 2std -PDO pattern.. obviously continues to hold the crown as correlation leader in the N. Pacific.
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Thanks for posting that.. basically net neutral from 30-90N, same story.
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I'll take the under on a warm Christmas. There really aren't enough examples to be so confident in it. This is true for Super Nino's general.
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This October watch to see if US goes colder or not. El Nino's are historically cold in Oct. Pac pattern in Oct is pretty connected to the Winter.
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A few La Nina/-QBO's had crazy N. Pacific blocks in December.. >+200dm. That would be a wildcard for Dec, a monster N. Pacific low, if the PDO wasn't going against it so hard and recent patterns.
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I think you are paying too much attention to one part - ENSO. ENSO's propagation to the northern latitudes are 2nd and 3rd effects. Sometimes patterns set up in the mid latitudes. A greater El Nino response than 2015 is crazy imo. DJFM had nearly -120dm in the N. Pacific. We have not seen that like at all in 11 years, this record El Nino summmer included.
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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to ORH_wxman's topic in Climate Change
498dm low in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days. -
498dm in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days. Continuing the warm season theme from 2024 and 2025.
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Must be one heck of an El Nino pattern in the Southern Hemisphere.
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Super Nino's are huge hit or total miss because of monster N. Pacific low correlation. Our top snowstorms are like -150dm GOA low pattern. The "El Nino pattern" has yet to happen this year. Doesn't mean that it won't happen going forward but you have to consider the strong -PDO N. Pacific pattern that we have had since 2016.
